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The roots of a dual equilibrium: GDP, productivity, and structural change in the Italian regions in the long run (1871–2011)

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  • Emanuele Felice

Abstract

The article presents updated estimates of GDP per capita, productivity, and employment for Italy’s regions, at the NUTS II level and at current borders, for the whole economy and its three branches (agriculture, industry, services): they span 140 years in 10-year benchmarks (1871–2011). The Moran’s indices of spatial autocorrelation, measures of sigma and beta convergence, Theil’s and Hanna-Kim’s decompositions are computed and discussed. Four phases in the history of regional inequality are identified: mild divergence (the liberal age), strong divergence (the two world wars and Fascism), general convergence (the golden age), and the “two Italies” tale (1971–2011). In the first two phases, we observe the formation of three macro-areas; in the last decades, we record convergence within the Center-North and thus an increasing North-South polarization, with differences in employment becoming more important than those in productivity. This result is in line with a socio-institutional interpretation of the North-South divide.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Felice, 2019. "The roots of a dual equilibrium: GDP, productivity, and structural change in the Italian regions in the long run (1871–2011)," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(4), pages 499-528.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ereveh:v:23:y:2019:i:4:p:499-528.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ereh/hey018
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    Cited by:

    1. Luigi Buzzacchi & Antonio De Marco & Marcello Pagnini, 2021. "Agglomeration and the Italian North-South divide," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 637, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Francisco J. Beltrán Tapia & Gabriele Cappelli, 2024. "Missing girls in Liberal Italy, 1861–1921," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 77(1), pages 185-211, February.
    3. Piras, Romano, 2022. "Structural change, growth, and convergence in Italy: 1951–1970," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 362-379.
    4. Fanti, Lucrezia & Pereira, Marcelo C. & Virgillito, Maria Enrica, 2023. "The North-South divide: Sources of divergence, policies for convergence," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 405-429.
    5. Emanuele Felice, 2020. "LÕalbatros. Ricordo di Stefano Fenoaltea (The albatros. In memory of Stefano Fenoaltea)," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 73(292), pages 397-407.
    6. Vítor João Pereira Domingues Martinho, 2021. "Impact of Covid‐19 on the convergence of GDP per capita in OECD countries," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(S1), pages 55-72, November.
    7. Antonioli, Davide & Berardino, Claudio Di & Onesti, Gianni, 2023. "The intersectoral linkages and manufacturing productivity growth in Italian regions using the I-O approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 120-133.
    8. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2022. "Evolving gaps: Occupational structure in southern and northern Italy, 1400–1861," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1349-1378, November.
    9. Papagni, Erasmo & Lepore, Amedeo & Felice, Emanuele & Baraldi, Anna Laura & Alfano, Maria Rosaria, 2021. "Public investment and growth: Lessons learned from 60-years experience in Southern Italy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 376-393.
    10. Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2023. "Italy in the great divergence: what can we learn from Engel’s law?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 667, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).

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