IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cge/wacage/667.html

Italy in the great divergence: what can we learn from Engel's law?

Author

Listed:
  • Chilosi, David

    (Department of Political Economy, King's College London)

  • Ciccarelli, Carlo

    (Department of Economics and Finance, University of Roma Tor Vergata)

Abstract

We estimate and internationally compare the evolution of GDP pc in central-northern and, for the first time, southern Italy in 1400-1861. To address concerns on the representativeness of daily wages, we rely on an unconventional demand approach, using a general equilibrium model and occupational data. Our estimates are consistent with an industrious revolution in the long 18th century (1650-1800). Central-northern Italy stagnated. Southern Italy, though poorer, was growing slowly. Our comparison suggests that the great divergence between Europe and Asia in the 18th century was rooted in contingent institutional developments, rather than persistent differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2023. "Italy in the great divergence: what can we learn from Engel's law?," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 667, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    • Handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:667
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp667.2023.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Broadberry,Stephen & Campbell,Bruce M. S. & Klein,Alexander & Overton,Mark & van Leeuwen,Bas, 2015. "British Economic Growth, 1270–1870," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107676497, January.
    2. Stephen Broadberry & Hanhui Guan, 2022. "Regional Variation of GDP per head within China, 1080-1850: Implications for the Great Divergence Debate," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _196, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    3. Rota, Mauro & Weisdorf, Jacob, 2020. "Italy and the Little Divergence in Wages and Prices: New Data, New Results," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 80(4), pages 931-960, December.
    4. Clark, Gregory & Cummins, Joseph & Smith, Brock, 2012. "Malthus, Wages, and Preindustrial Growth," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 72(2), pages 364-392, May.
    5. Broadberry, Stephen & Guan, Hanhui & Li, David Daokui, 2018. "China, Europe, and the Great Divergence: A Study in Historical National Accounting, 980–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 78(4), pages 955-1000, December.
    6. Groth, Christian & Persson, Karl Gunnar, 2016. "Growth or stagnation in pre-industrial Britain? A revealed income growth approach," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 264, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    7. Van Zanden, Jan Luiten, 2002. "Taking the measure of the early modern economy: Historical national accounts for Holland in 1510/14," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 131-163, August.
    8. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2022. "Evolving gaps: Occupational structure in southern and northern Italy, 1400–1861," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1349-1378, November.
    9. Giovanni Federico & Antonio Tena-Junguito, 2014. "The ripples of the industrial revolution: exports, economic growth, and regional integration in Italy in the early nineteenth century," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 18(3), pages 349-369.
    10. Emanuele Felice, 2019. "The roots of a dual equilibrium: GDP, productivity, and structural change in the Italian regions in the long run (1871–2011)," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 23(4), pages 499-528.
    11. repec:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:10:p:2867-2887. is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime, 2019. "From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 477-506, June.
    13. Allen, Robert C., 2000. "Economic structure and agricultural productivity in Europe, 1300–1800," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, April.
    14. Yongqin Guo & Zipeng Zhang & Bas van Leeuwen & Yi Xu, 2019. "A View of the Occupational Structure in Imperial and Republican China (1640–1952)," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 59(2), pages 134-158, July.
    15. Crafts, N F R, 1984. "Patterns of Development in Nineteenth Century Europe," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 36(3), pages 438-458, November.
    16. Jan Luiten van Zanden & Emanuele Felice, 2022. "Benchmarking the Middle Ages: fifteenth century Tuscany in European perspective [Plague in seventeenth century Europe and the decline of Italy: an epidemiological hypothesis]," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(4), pages 535-554.
    17. Federico, Giovanni & Nuvolari, Alessandro & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2019. "The Origins of the Italian Regional Divide: Evidence from Real Wages, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 63-98, March.
    18. Giovanni Federico, 2007. "Ma l'agricoltura meridionale era davvero arretrata?," Rivista di Politica Economica, SIPI Spa, vol. 97(2), pages 317-340, March-Apr.
    19. van Zanden, Jan Luiten & van Leeuwen, Bas, 2012. "Persistent but not consistent: The growth of national income in Holland 1347–1807," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 119-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2025. "Smithian growth in the little divergence: a general equilibrium analysis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2024. "European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2021. "Southern and Northern Italy in the Great Divergence: New Perspectives from the Occupational Structure," Quaderni di storia economica (Economic History Working Papers) 47, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    2. Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2025. "Smithian growth in the little divergence: a general equilibrium analysis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    3. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Broadberry, Stephen & Fukao, Kyoji & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Takashima, Masanori, 2019. "Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.
    4. van Bavel, Bas, 2016. "The Invisible Hand?: How Market Economies have Emerged and Declined Since AD 500," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199608133.
    5. Malanima, Paolo, 2025. "Before modern growth. Italy’s GDP 1660-1913," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 147-162.
    6. David Chilosi & Carlo Ciccarelli, 2022. "Evolving gaps: Occupational structure in southern and northern Italy, 1400–1861," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 75(4), pages 1349-1378, November.
    7. Kumon, Yuzuru, 2022. "How Landownership Equality Created a Low Wage Society: Pre-industrial Japan, 1600-1870," IAST Working Papers 22-138, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
    8. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2017. "Anonymity, efficiency wages and technological progress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 379-394.
    9. Broadberry, Stephen & Gardner, Leigh, 2014. "African economic growth in a European mirror: a historical perspective," Economic History Working Papers 56493, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    10. Giovanni Federico & Alessandro Nuvolari & Michelangelo Vasta, 2023. "Inequality in Pre‐Industrial Europe (1260–1850): New Evidence From the Labor Share," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 347-375, June.
    11. Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Carlos Álvarez-Nogal & Carlos Santiago-Caballero, 2022. "Growth recurring in preindustrial Spain?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(2), pages 215-241, May.
    12. Nikolaj Malinowski & Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2015. "National income and its distribution in preindustrial Poland in a global perspective," Working Papers 0076, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    13. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.
    14. Groth, Christian & Persson, Karl Gunnar, 2016. "Growth or stagnation in pre-industrial Britain? A revealed income growth approach," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 264, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    15. Broadberry, Stephen, 2021. "Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 15936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Yi Xu & Zhihong Shi & Bas Leeuwen & Yuping Ni & Zipeng Zhang & Ye Ma, 2017. "Chinese National Income, ca. 1661–1933," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(3), pages 368-393, November.
    17. António Henriques & Nuno Palma, 2023. "Correction to: Comparative european institutions and the little divergence, 1385–1800," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 295-295, June.
    18. Palma, Nuno & Santiago Caballero, Carlos, 2019. "Patterns of Iberian economic growth in the early modern period," IFCS - Working Papers in Economic History.WH 29185, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Instituto Figuerola.
    19. Broadberry, Stephen & Zhai, Runzhuo, 2025. "Innovation and the Great Divergence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 771, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    20. Broadberry, Stephen & Custodis, Johann & Gupta, Bishnupriya, 2015. "India and the great divergence: An Anglo-Indian comparison of GDP per capita, 1600–1871," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 58-75.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cge:wacage:667. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jane Snape (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dewaruk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.