IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/streco/v75y2025icp147-162.html

Before modern growth. Italy’s GDP 1660-1913

Author

Listed:
  • Malanima, Paolo

Abstract

The aim of this work is to present annual series of GDP in Italy from 1660 to the Unification of the country in 1861. Given the lack of primary information on the product in the period we are dealing with, the elaboration follows an indirect method. Price and wage series are used to quantify agriculture in GDP. The non-agricultural GDP is reconstructed through urbanisation. The result is that per capita product declined from the 1730s to the 1880s. From the 1880s onwards, the Italian economy recovered rapidly and began its modern growth. The new GDP series 1660–1860, linked to the recently revised national accounts series from 1861 to 1913, makes it possible to place the beginning of modern Italian growth in a long-term perspective.

Suggested Citation

  • Malanima, Paolo, 2025. "Before modern growth. Italy’s GDP 1660-1913," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 147-162.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:75:y:2025:i:c:p:147-162
    DOI: 10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.001
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0954349X25000992
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.strueco.2025.06.001?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Broadberry & Elena Korchmina, 2022. "Catching-up and Falling Behind: Russian Economic Growth, 1960s-1880s," Oxford Economic and Social History Working Papers _197, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    2. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116.
    3. Mikołaj Malinowski & Jan Luiten Zanden, 2017. "Income and its distribution in preindustrial Poland," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 11(3), pages 375-404, September.
    4. De La Escosura, Leandro Prados, 1989. "La estimacion indirecta de la produccion agraria en el siglo XIX: replica a Simpson," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(3), pages 703-718, December.
    5. D. W. Jorgenson & Z. Griliches, 1967. "The Explanation of Productivity Change," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 34(3), pages 249-283.
    6. Nazrul Islam & Erbiao Dai, 2009. "Alternative Estimates of TFP Growth in China: Evidence from Application of the Dual Approach," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Nazrul Islam (ed.), Resurgent China, chapter 11, pages 289-331, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. Antras, Pol & Voth, Hans-Joachim, 2003. "Factor prices and productivity growth during the British industrial revolution," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 52-77, January.
    8. Broadberry,Stephen & Campbell,Bruce M. S. & Klein,Alexander & Overton,Mark & van Leeuwen,Bas, 2015. "British Economic Growth, 1270–1870," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9781107070783, November.
    9. Stefano Fenoaltea, 2002. "Production and Consumption in Post-Unification Italy: New Evidence, New Conjectures," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 251-300.
    10. Giovanni Federico & Paolo Malanima, 2004. "Progress, decline, growth: product and productivity in Italian agriculture, 1000–2000," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 57(3), pages 437-464, August.
    11. Nikita Céspedes & Nelson Ramirez-Rondán, 2014. "Total Factor Productivity Estimation in Peru: Primal and Dual Approaches," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, vol. 37(73), pages 9-39.
    12. Maddison, Angus, 2007. "Contours of the World Economy 1-2030 AD: Essays in Macro-Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199227204.
    13. Ulrich Pfister, 2017. "The timing and pattern of real wage divergence in pre-industrial Europe: evidence from Germany, c. 1500–1850," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 70(3), pages 701-729, August.
    14. Roger Fouquet & Stephen Broadberry, 2015. "Seven Centuries of European Economic Growth and Decline," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(4), pages 227-244, Fall.
    15. Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Carlos Álvarez-Nogal & Carlos Santiago-Caballero, 2022. "Growth recurring in preindustrial Spain?," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 16(2), pages 215-241, May.
    16. Federico, Giovanni, 2007. "Market integration and market efficiency: The case of 19th century Italy," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-316, April.
    17. Lennart Schon & Olle Krantz, 2012. "The Swedish economy in the early modern period: constructing historical national accounts," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 16(4), pages 529-549, November.
    18. Broadberry, Stephen, 2013. "Accounting for the great divergence," Economic History Working Papers 54573, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
    19. Allen, Robert C., 2000. "Economic structure and agricultural productivity in Europe, 1300–1800," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 1-25, April.
    20. Chang-Tai Hsieh, 2002. "What Explains the Industrial Revolution in East Asia? Evidence From the Factor Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(3), pages 502-526, June.
    21. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 2005. "The growth of the Italian economy, 1861–1913: Preliminary second-generation estimates," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(3), pages 273-312, December.
    22. Federico, Giovanni & Nuvolari, Alessandro & Vasta, Michelangelo, 2019. "The Origins of the Italian Regional Divide: Evidence from Real Wages, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(1), pages 63-98, March.
    23. Álvarez-Nogal, Carlos & Prados De La Escosura, Leandro, 2007. "The decline of Spain (1500–1850): conjectural estimates," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(3), pages 319-366, December.
    24. Franco Peracchi, 2008. "Height and Economic Development in Italy, 1730-1980," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 475-481, May.
    25. Broadberry, Stephen & Korchmina, Elena, 2024. "Catching-Up and Falling Behind: Russian Economic Growth, 1690s–1880s," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 84(4), pages 997-1028, December.
    26. Paolo Malanima, 2013. "When did England overtake Italy? Medieval and early modern divergence in prices and wages," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 17(1), pages 45-70, February.
    27. repec:ehl:lserod:54573 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. R. V. Jackson, 1985. "Growth and Deceleration in English Agriculture, 1660–1790," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 38(3), pages 333-351, August.
    29. Luis Felipe Zegarra, 2022. "Living costs and welfare ratios in Western Europe: new estimates using a linear programming model," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 26(1), pages 38-61.
    30. Allen, Robert C., 2001. "The Great Divergence in European Wages and Prices from the Middle Ages to the First World War," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 411-447, October.
    31. Malanima, Paolo, 2005. "Urbanisation and the Italian economy during the last millennium," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(1), pages 97-122, April.
    32. Mauro Rota & Jacob Weisdorf, 2021. "Italy and the little divergence in wages and prices: evidence from stable employment in rural areas," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 74(2), pages 449-470, May.
    33. Pfister, Ulrich, 2022. "Economic Growth in Germany, 1500–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 1071-1107, December.
    34. Vecchi, Giovanni, 2017. "Measuring Wellbeing: A History of Italian Living Standards," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199944590.
    35. Malanima, Paolo, 2021. "Past growths: pre-modern and modern," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 301-308, July.
    36. Vittorio Daniele & Paolo Malanima, 2017. "Regional Wages and the North-South Disparity in Italy after the Unification," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 117-158.
    37. Milanovic, Branko, 2011. "A short history of global inequality: The past two centuries," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 494-506.
    38. Carlos Álvarez-Nogal & Leandro Prados De La Escosura, 2013. "The rise and fall of Spain (1270–1850)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(1), pages 1-37, February.
    39. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime, 2019. "From Convergence to Divergence: Portuguese Economic Growth, 1527–1850," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 79(2), pages 477-506, June.
    40. Alessandro Nuvolari & Mattia Ricci, 2013. "Economic Growth in England, 1250-1850: Some New Estimates Using a Demand Side Approach," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 1, pages 31-54.
    41. Giovanni Federico, 2003. "Le nuove stime della produzione agricola italiana, 1860-1910: primi risultati e implicazioni," Rivista di storia economica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 3, pages 359-382.
    42. Daniele, Vittorio & Samà, Francesco, 2023. "Health, Height And Regional Disparities In Italy: Evidence From Conscripts’ Data, 1843-1871," Revista de Historia Económica / Journal of Iberian and Latin American Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(3), pages 483-523, December.
    43. Malanima, Paolo, 2011. "The long decline of a leading economy: GDP in central and northern Italy, 1300–1913," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 169-219, August.
    44. van Zanden, Jan Luiten & Bolt, Jutta, 2021. "Two concerns about the interpretation of the estimates of historical national accounts before 1850," Journal of Global History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(2), pages 294-300, July.
    45. Daron Acemoglu & Simon Johnson & James A. Robinson, 2002. "Reversal of Fortune: Geography and Institutions in the Making of the Modern World Income Distribution," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1231-1294.
    46. W. Whitney Hicks & S. R. Johnson, 1968. "Quantity and Quality Components for Income Elasticities of Demand for Food," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 50(5), pages 1512-1517.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chilosi, David & Ciccarelli, Carlo, 2025. "Smithian growth in the little divergence: a general equilibrium analysis," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    2. Broadberry, Stephen & Ghosal, Sayantan & Proto, Eugenio, 2017. "Anonymity, efficiency wages and technological progress," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 379-394.
    3. Deseau, Arnaud, 2024. "Speed of convergence in a Malthusian world: Weak or strong homeostasis?," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    4. Carlos Álvarez-Nogal & Leandro Prados De La Escosura, 2013. "The rise and fall of Spain (1270–1850)," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 66(1), pages 1-37, February.
    5. Broadberry, Stephen & Lennard, Jason, 2024. "European business cycles and economic growth, 1300–2000," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).
    6. Paolo Malanima, 2018. "Italy in the Renaissance: a leading economy in the European context, 1350–1550," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 71(1), pages 3-30, February.
    7. Fochesato, Mattia, 2018. "Origins of Europe’s north-south divide: Population changes, real wages and the ‘little divergence’ in early modern Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 91-131.
    8. Palma, Nuno & Reis, Jaime & Rodrigues, Lisbeth, 2023. "Historical gender discrimination does not explain comparative Western European development: evidence from Portugal, 1300-1900," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    9. Jaime Reis, 2016. "The Gross Agricultural Output of Portugal: A Quantitative, Unified Perspective, 1500-1850," Working Papers 0098, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    10. Bassino, Jean-Pascal & Broadberry, Stephen & Fukao, Kyoji & Gupta, Bishnupriya & Takashima, Masanori, 2019. "Japan and the great divergence, 730–1874," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1-22.
    11. van Bavel, Bas, 2016. "The Invisible Hand?: How Market Economies have Emerged and Declined Since AD 500," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199608133.
    12. Broadberry, Stephen, 2021. "Accounting for the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 15936, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    13. Broadberry, Stephen & Zhai, Runzhuo, 2025. "Innovation and the Great Divergence," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 771, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    14. repec:ehl:lserod:120364 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Broadberry, Stephen, 2020. "The Industrial Revolution and the Great Divergence: Recent Findings from Historical National Accounting," CEPR Discussion Papers 15207, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Philipp Koch & Viktor Stojkoski & César A. Hidalgo, 2024. "Augmenting the availability of historical GDP per capita estimates through machine learning," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 121(39), pages 2402060121-, September.
    17. Prados de la Escosura, Leandro & Rodríguez-Caballero, C. Vladimir, 2022. "War, pandemics, and modern economic growth in Europe," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    18. Carlos álvarez-Nogal & Leandro Prados de la Escosura & Carlos Santiago-Caballero, 2015. "Agriculture in Europe's Little Divergence: The Case of Spain," Working Papers 0080, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    19. Nicholas Crafts & Pieter Woltjer, 2021. "Growth Accounting In Economic History: Findings, Lessons And New Directions," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 670-696, July.
    20. Nikolaj Malinowski & Jan Luiten van Zanden, 2015. "National income and its distribution in preindustrial Poland in a global perspective," Working Papers 0076, European Historical Economics Society (EHES).
    21. Matteo Cervellati & Gerrit Meyerheim & Uwe Sunde, 2023. "The empirics of economic growth over time and across nations: a unified growth perspective," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 28(2), pages 173-224, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • N70 - Economic History - - Economic History: Transport, International and Domestic Trade, Energy, and Other Services - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:streco:v:75:y:2025:i:c:p:147-162. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/525148 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.