Will China's provincial per capita energy consumption converge to a common level over 1990–2017? Evidence from a club convergence approach

Per capita energy consumption is related to the equity of energy resource allocation, and its wide regional variations probably aggravate the unbalanced regional development. However, whether the gaps in China's provincial per capita energy consumption are reduced over the past decades has not yet been thoroughly investigated, and the convergence of provincial per capita energy consumption is crucial for relevant energy policy making. This study serves to investigate the convergence pattern of per capita aggregate energy consumption across 30 Chinese provinces throughout 1990–2017, with the application of a club convergence approach. Then several energy conservation scenarios, as well as their convergence are discussed. The results indicate that the full sample of 30 provinces cannot converge to a common level in per capita energy consumption, and 7 provinces of which converge to a level, while the rest converge to another level. However, the convergence of full sample in per capita energy could be achieved over 1990–2017 in a scenario of energy consumption reduction for some specific provinces with higher energy consumption per capita. We suggest that Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai and Shanxi should take more efforts to reduce energy consumption in process of achieving convergence of the full sample.