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System dynamics model analysis of pathway to 4th generation district heating in Latvia


  • Ziemele, Jelena
  • Gravelsins, Armands
  • Blumberga, Andra
  • Vigants, Girts
  • Blumberga, Dagnija


In the article, a possibility to introduce the 4th generation district heating (4GDH) in Latvia is analyzed with the system dynamic modeling. Three policy instruments were included into the system dynamic model: subsidies, instrument for risk reduction and instrument for efficiency increase, and their impact on the system operation was analyzed. Six development scenarios are examined in the article, two of which are supplemented with the transition of heat network to the low-temperature regime at a different share of the renewable energy (60%, 80%, 95%).

Suggested Citation

  • Ziemele, Jelena & Gravelsins, Armands & Blumberga, Andra & Vigants, Girts & Blumberga, Dagnija, 2016. "System dynamics model analysis of pathway to 4th generation district heating in Latvia," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 85-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:energy:v:110:y:2016:i:c:p:85-94
    DOI: 10.1016/

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Sperling, Karl & Möller, Bernd, 2012. "End-use energy savings and district heating expansion in a local renewable energy system – A short-term perspective," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 831-842.
    2. Nielsen, Steffen & Möller, Bernd, 2012. "Excess heat production of future net zero energy buildings within district heating areas in Denmark," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 23-31.
    3. Olanrewaju, O.A. & Jimoh, A.A. & Kholopane, P.A., 2012. "Integrated IDA–ANN–DEA for assessment and optimization of energy consumption in industrial sectors," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 629-635.
    4. Persson, Urban & Werner, Sven, 2011. "Heat distribution and the future competitiveness of district heating," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 88(3), pages 568-576, March.
    5. Romagnoli, Francesco & Barisa, Aiga & Dzene, Ilze & Blumberga, Andra & Blumberga, Dagnija, 2014. "Implementation of different policy strategies promoting the use of wood fuel in the Latvian district heating system: Impact evaluation through a system dynamic model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 210-222.
    6. Tol, Richard S.J., 2009. "Intra-union flexibility of non-ETS emission reduction obligations in the European Union," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1745-1752, May.
    7. Chau, J. & Sowlati, T. & Sokhansanj, S. & Preto, F. & Melin, S. & Bi, X., 2009. "Techno-economic analysis of wood biomass boilers for the greenhouse industry," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(3), pages 364-371, March.
    8. Alberg Østergaard, Poul & Mathiesen, Brian Vad & Möller, Bernd & Lund, Henrik, 2010. "A renewable energy scenario for Aalborg Municipality based on low-temperature geothermal heat, wind power and biomass," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 4892-4901.
    9. Persson, U. & Möller, B. & Werner, S., 2014. "Heat Roadmap Europe: Identifying strategic heat synergy regions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 663-681.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:gam:jeners:v:11:y:2018:i:1:p:236-:d:127766 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:eee:energy:v:145:y:2018:i:c:p:526-539 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:eee:energy:v:154:y:2018:i:c:p:424-432 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:energy:v:137:y:2017:i:c:p:834-845 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:energy:v:150:y:2018:i:c:p:253-261 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:energy:v:137:y:2017:i:c:p:595-606 is not listed on IDEAS


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