IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v69y2014icp536-545.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Achieving reductions in greenhouse gases in the US road transportation sector

Author

Listed:
  • Kay, Andrew I.
  • Noland, Robert B.
  • Rodier, Caroline J.

Abstract

It is well established that GHG emissions must be reduced 50 to 80% by 2050 in order to limit global temperature increase to 2°C. Achieving reductions of this magnitude in the transportation sector is a challenge and requires a multitude of policies and technology options. The research presented here analyzes three scenarios: changes in the perceived price of travel, land use intensification, and increases in transit. Elasticity estimates are derived using an activity-based travel model for the state of California and broadly representative of the US. The VISION model is used to forecast changes in technology and fuel options that are currently forecast to occur in the US for the period 2000–2040, providing a life-cycle GHG forecast for the road transportation sector. Results suggest that aggressive policy action is required, especially pricing policies, but also more on the technology side, especially increases in the carbon efficiency of medium and heavy-duty vehicles.

Suggested Citation

  • Kay, Andrew I. & Noland, Robert B. & Rodier, Caroline J., 2014. "Achieving reductions in greenhouse gases in the US road transportation sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 536-545.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:536-545
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421514001013
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.02.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Millard‐Ball & Lee Schipper, 2011. "Are We Reaching Peak Travel? Trends in Passenger Transport in Eight Industrialized Countries," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(3), pages 357-378.
    2. Reid Ewing & Robert Cervero, 2010. "Travel and the Built Environment," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 76(3), pages 265-294.
    3. Johnston, Robert A. & Gao, Shengyi & Clay, Michael J., 2008. "Modeling Long-Range Transportation and Land Use Scenarios for the Sacramento Region, Using Citizen-Generated Policies," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2jd480vw, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    4. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "Effects of Federal Tax Credits for the Purchase of Electric Vehicles," Reports 43576, Congressional Budget Office.
    5. Christopher Zegras, 2010. "The Built Environment and Motor Vehicle Ownership and Use: Evidence from Santiago de Chile," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 47(8), pages 1793-1817, July.
    6. Fang, Hao Audrey, 2008. "A discrete-continuous model of households' vehicle choice and usage, with an application to the effects of residential density," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 736-758, November.
    7. Yang, Christopher & McCollum, David L & McCarthy, Ryan & Leighty, Wayne, 2009. "Meeting an 80% Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Transportation by 2050: A Case Study in California," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2ns1q98f, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    8. Deakin, Elizabeth & Harvey, Greig & Pozdena, Randall & Yarema, Geoffrey, 1996. "Transportation Pricing Strategies for California: An Assessment of Congestion, Emissions, Energy. And Equity Impacts," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt723002kt, University of California Transportation Center.
    9. Beckman, Richard J. & Baggerly, Keith A. & McKay, Michael D., 1996. "Creating synthetic baseline populations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 415-429, November.
    10. Brownstone, David & Golob, Thomas F., 2009. "The impact of residential density on vehicle usage and energy consumption," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 91-98, January.
    11. McCollum, David & Yang, Christopher, 2009. "Achieving deep reductions in US transport greenhouse gas emissions: Scenario analysis and policy implications," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5580-5596, December.
    12. Antonio M. Bento & Maureen L. Cropper & Ahmed Mushfiq Mobarak & Katja Vinha, 2005. "The Effects of Urban Spatial Structure on Travel Demand in the United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(3), pages 466-478, August.
    13. Malte Meinshausen & Nicolai Meinshausen & William Hare & Sarah C. B. Raper & Katja Frieler & Reto Knutti & David J. Frame & Myles R. Allen, 2009. "Greenhouse-gas emission targets for limiting global warming to 2 °C," Nature, Nature, vol. 458(7242), pages 1158-1162, April.
    14. Hunt, J.D. & Stefan, K.J., 2007. "Tour-based microsimulation of urban commercial movements," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 41(9), pages 981-1013, November.
    15. Congressional Budget Office, 2012. "Effects of Federal Tax Credits for the Purchase of Electric Vehicles," Reports 43576, Congressional Budget Office.
    16. Rodier, Caroline J. & Johnston, Robert A., 2002. "Uncertain socioeconomic projections used in travel demand and emissions models: could plausible errors result in air quality nonconformity?," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 613-631, August.
    17. Skippon, Stephen & Veeraraghavan, Shoba & Ma, Hongrui & Gadd, Paul & Tait, Nigel, 2012. "Combining technology development and behaviour change to meet CO2 cumulative emission budgets for road transport: Case studies for the USA and Europe," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1405-1423.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Luis Rivera-González & David Bolonio & Luis F. Mazadiego & Sebastián Naranjo-Silva & Kenny Escobar-Segovia, 2020. "Long-Term Forecast of Energy and Fuels Demand Towards a Sustainable Road Transport Sector in Ecuador (2016–2035): A LEAP Model Application," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-26, January.
    2. Feng Ma & Aimin Sha & Ruiyu Lin & Yue Huang & Chao Wang, 2016. "Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Asphalt Pavement Construction: A Case Study in China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 13(3), pages 1-15, March.
    3. Ying Sun & Long Qian & Zhi Liu, 2022. "The carbon emissions level of China’s service industry: an analysis of characteristics and influencing factors," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(12), pages 13557-13582, December.
    4. Scott Le Vine & Charilaos Latinopoulos & John Polak, 2014. "What is the relationship between online activity and driving-licence-holding amongst young adults?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 41(5), pages 1071-1098, September.
    5. Oh, Yunjung & Park, Junhong & Lee, Jong Tae & Seo, Jigu & Park, Sungwook, 2016. "Development strategies to satisfy corporate average CO2 emission regulations of light duty vehicles (LDVs) in Korea," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 121-132.
    6. Rith, Monorom & Fillone, Alexis M. & Biona, Jose Bienvenido Manuel M., 2020. "Energy and environmental benefits and policy implications for private passenger vehicles in an emerging metropolis of Southeast Asia – A case study of Metro Manila," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    7. Neves, Sónia Almeida & Marques, António Cardoso, 2021. "The substitution of fossil fuels in the US transportation energy mix: Are emissions decoupling from economic growth?," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Schmitz Gonçalves, Daniel Neves & Goes, George Vasconcelos & de Almeida D'Agosto, Márcio & Albergaria de Mello Bandeira, Renata, 2019. "Energy use and emissions scenarios for transport to gauge progress toward national commitments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
    9. Axsen, Jonn & Wolinetz, Michael, 2021. "Taxes, tolls and ZEV zones for climate: Synthesizing insights on effectiveness, efficiency, equity, acceptability and implementation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    10. Yang, Christopher & Yeh, Sonia & Zakerinia, Saleh & Ramea, Kalai & McCollum, David, 2015. "Achieving California's 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in 2050: Technology, policy and scenario analysis using CA-TIMES energy economic systems model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 118-130.
    11. Alshammari, Yousef M. & Sarathy, S. Mani, 2017. "Achieving 80% greenhouse gas reduction target in Saudi Arabia under low and medium oil prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 502-511.
    12. Munjed A. Maraqa & Francisco D. B. Albuquerque & Mohammed H. Alzard & Rezaul Chowdhury & Lina A. Kamareddine & Jamal El Zarif, 2021. "GHG Emission Reduction Opportunities for Road Projects in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi: A Scenario Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(13), pages 1-22, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lee, Sungwon & Lee, Bumsoo, 2014. "The influence of urban form on GHG emissions in the U.S. household sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 534-549.
    2. Dillon, Harya S. & Saphores, Jean-Daniel & Boarnet, Marlon G., 2015. "The impact of urban form and gasoline prices on vehicle usage: Evidence from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 23-33.
    3. Bindong Sun & Tinglin Zhang & Zhou He & Rui Wang, 2017. "Urban Spatial Structure And Motorization In China," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(3), pages 470-486, June.
    4. Sabreena Anowar & Naveen Eluru & Luis F. Miranda-Moreno, 2014. "Alternative Modeling Approaches Used for Examining Automobile Ownership: A Comprehensive Review," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 441-473, July.
    5. Circella, Giovanni & Tiedeman, Kate & Handy, Susan & Alemi, Farzad & Mokhtarian, Patricia, 2016. "What Affects U.S. Passenger Travel? Current Trends and Future Perspectives," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt2w16b8bf, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    6. Ding, Chuan & Wang, Donggen & Liu, Chao & Zhang, Yi & Yang, Jiawen, 2017. "Exploring the influence of built environment on travel mode choice considering the mediating effects of car ownership and travel distance," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 65-80.
    7. Steven Spears & Marlon G Boarnet & Douglas Houston, 2017. "Driving reduction after the introduction of light rail transit: Evidence from an experimental-control group evaluation of the Los Angeles Expo Line," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(12), pages 2780-2799, September.
    8. Miotti, Marco & Needell, Zachary A. & Jain, Rishee K., 2023. "The impact of urban form on daily mobility demand and energy use: Evidence from the United States," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 339(C).
    9. Qing Su, 2017. "Travel Demand Management Policy Instruments, Urban Spatial Characteristics, and Household Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Travel in the US Urban Areas," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 7(3), pages 157-166.
    10. Kim, Jinwon & Brownstone, David, 2013. "The impact of residential density on vehicle usage and fuel consumption: Evidence from national samples," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 196-206.
    11. Ahlfeldt, Gabriel M. & Pietrostefani, Elisabetta, 2019. "The economic effects of density: A synthesis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 93-107.
    12. Brownstone, David & Fang, Hao (Audrey), 2014. "A vehicle ownership and utilization choice model with endogenous residential density," The Journal of Transport and Land Use, Center for Transportation Studies, University of Minnesota, vol. 7(2), pages 135-151.
    13. Heres-Del-Valle, David & Niemeier, Deb, 2011. "CO2 emissions: Are land-use changes enough for California to reduce VMT? Specification of a two-part model with instrumental variables," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 150-161, January.
    14. Li, Phillip, 2011. "Estimation of sample selection models with two selection mechanisms," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 1099-1108, February.
    15. Blaudin de Thé, Camille & Carantino, Benjamin & Lafourcade, Miren, 2021. "The carbon ‘carprint’ of urbanization: New evidence from French cities," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    16. Kim, Jinwon, 2016. "Vehicle fuel-efficiency choices, emission externalities, and urban sprawl," Economics of Transportation, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 24-36.
    17. Yu Sang Chang & Sung Jun Jo & Yoo-Taek Lee & Yoonji Lee, 2021. "Population Density or Populations Size. Which Factor Determines Urban Traffic Congestion?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.
    18. Guerra, Erick, 2015. "The geography of car ownership in Mexico City: a joint model of households’ residential location and car ownership decisions," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 171-180.
    19. Javid, Roxana J. & Nejat, Ali, 2017. "A comprehensive model of regional electric vehicle adoption and penetration," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 30-42.
    20. J. Javid, Roxana & Nejat, Ali & Hayhoe, Katharine, 2014. "Selection of CO2 mitigation strategies for road transportation in the United States using a multi-criteria approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 960-972.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:69:y:2014:i:c:p:536-545. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.