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Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector

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  • Lin, Boqiang
  • Xie, Chunping

Abstract

China is currently in the stage of industrialization and urbanization, which is characterized by rigid energy demand and rapid growth of energy consumption. Therefore, energy conservation will become a major strategy for China in a transition to low-carbon economy. China's transport industry is of high energy consumption. In 2010, oil consumption in transport industry takes up 38.2% of the country's total oil demand, of which 23.6% is taken up by road transport sector. As a result, oil saving in China's road transport sector is vital to the whole nation. The co-integration method is developed to find a long-run relationship between oil consumption and affecting factors such as GDP, road condition, labor productivity and oil price, to estimate oil demand and to predict future oil saving potential in China's transport sector under different oil-saving scenarios. Monte Carlo simulation is further used for risk analysis. Results show that under BAU condition, oil demand of China's road transport sector will reach 278.5millionton of oil equivalents (MTOE) in 2020. Oil saving potential will be 86MTOE and 131MTOE under moderate oil-saving scenario and advanced oil-saving scenario, respectively. This paper provides a reference to establishing oil saving policy for China's road transport sector.

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  • Lin, Boqiang & Xie, Chunping, 2013. "Estimation on oil demand and oil saving potential of China's road transport sector," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 472-482.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:61:y:2013:i:c:p:472-482
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2013.06.017
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    1. Lin, Boqiang & Du, Zhili, 2017. "Can urban rail transit curb automobile energy consumption?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 120-127.
    2. Lin, Boqiang & Du, Zhili, 2015. "How China׳s urbanization impacts transport energy consumption in the face of income disparity," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 1693-1701.
    3. Lin, Boqiang & Wang, Ailun, 2015. "Estimating energy conservation potential in China's commercial sector," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 147-156.
    4. repec:eee:energy:v:135:y:2017:i:c:p:865-875 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Lin, Boqiang & Long, Houyin, 2014. "How to promote energy conservation in China’s chemical industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 93-102.
    6. Lin, Boqiang & Ouyang, Xiaoling, 2014. "Electricity demand and conservation potential in the Chinese nonmetallic mineral products industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 243-253.
    7. Xie, Xuan & Shao, Shuai & Lin, Boqiang, 2016. "Exploring the driving forces and mitigation pathways of CO2 emissions in China’s petroleum refining and coking industry: 1995–2031," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 1004-1015.
    8. Lin, Boqiang & Long, Houyin, 2014. "Promoting carbon emissions reduction in China's chemical process industry," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 822-830.
    9. Giuliodori, David & Rodriguez, Alejandro, 2015. "Analysis of the stainless steel market in the EU, China and US using co-integration and VECM," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 12-24.
    10. Lin, Boqiang & Tan, Ruipeng, 2017. "Estimation of the environmental values of electric vehicles in Chinese cities," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 221-229.
    11. Sun, Zuo-Yu & Li, Guo-Xiu, 2015. "On reliability and flexibility of sustainable energy application route for vehicles in China," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 830-846.
    12. repec:eee:enepol:v:111:y:2017:i:c:p:68-74 is not listed on IDEAS

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