IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/enepol/v108y2017icp624-633.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Compliance choice analysis for India's thermal power sector in the market-based energy efficiency regime

Author

Listed:
  • Sahoo, Nihar R.
  • Mohapatra, Pratap K.J.
  • Mahanty, Biswajit

Abstract

India has recently introduced a market-based scheme―Perform, Achieve, and Trade―to realize emission reduction by enhancing energy efficiency. In the case of thermal power plants, investment in energy efficiency projects, using clean coal and buying energy saving certificates are the available compliance options for complying with the scheme. These options are associated with specific forms of cash flows that depend on the uncertain price of energy saving certificates and clean coal premium. This paper uses a Monte Carlo-based decision tree approach to find the optimal compliance options for an efficient and a less efficient thermal power plant. The decision tree evaluates different sequences of compliance options in three consecutive PAT cycles by using the discounted cash flows and their associated probabilities. The study shows that investment in energy efficiency is optimal in the first PAT cycle for the inefficient plant only. The threshold certificate price for the efficient plant is substantially higher than the inefficient plant, implying that the real efficiency improvement is likely to take place in the low-efficiency plants. The study also indicates that the investment in high-efficiency plants is not optimal over a wide range of certificate prices and the incremental cost of clean coal.

Suggested Citation

  • Sahoo, Nihar R. & Mohapatra, Pratap K.J. & Mahanty, Biswajit, 2017. "Compliance choice analysis for India's thermal power sector in the market-based energy efficiency regime," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 624-633.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:624-633
    DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2017.06.012
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0301421517303671
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.06.012?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    2. Robert K. Hammond & J. Eric Bickel, 2013. "Reexamining Discrete Approximations to Continuous Distributions," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 10(1), pages 6-25, March.
    3. Allen C. Miller, III & Thomas R. Rice, 1983. "Discrete Approximations of Probability Distributions," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(3), pages 352-362, March.
    4. Luiz E. Brandão & James S. Dyer & Warren J. Hahn, 2005. "Using Binomial Decision Trees to Solve Real-Option Valuation Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 69-88, June.
    5. Sahoo, Nihar R. & Mohapatra, Pratap K.J. & Sahoo, Biresh K. & Mahanty, Biswajit, 2017. "Rationality of energy efficiency improvement targets under the PAT scheme in India – A case of thermal power plants," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 279-289.
    6. James E. Smith & Robert F. Nau, 1995. "Valuing Risky Projects: Option Pricing Theory and Decision Analysis," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 41(5), pages 795-816, May.
    7. Espinoza, R. David & Rojo, Javier, 2015. "Using DNPV for valuing investments in the energy sector: A solar project case study," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 44-49.
    8. Luiz Brandão & James Dyer, 2005. "Decision Analysis and Real Options: A Discrete Time Approach to Real Option Valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 21-39, March.
    9. Mathur, Ritu & Chand, Sharat & Tezuka, Tetsuo, 2003. "Optimal use of coal for power generation in India," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 319-331, March.
    10. Baldursson, Fridrik M & von der Fehr, N.-H.M.Nils-Henrik M, 2004. "Price volatility and risk exposure: on market-based environmental policy instruments," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 48(1), pages 682-704, July.
    11. Khanna, Madhu & Zilberman, David, 2001. "Adoption of energy efficient technologies and carbon abatement: the electricity generating sector in India," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(6), pages 637-658, November.
    12. Donald L. Keefer & Samuel E. Bodily, 1983. "Three-Point Approximations for Continuous Random Variables," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(5), pages 595-609, May.
    13. James E. Smith, 2005. "Alternative Approaches for Solving Real-Options Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 89-102, June.
    14. Bhattacharya, Tanushree & Kapoor, Richa, 2012. "Energy saving instrument – ESCerts in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 1311-1316.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Giri, Prashant & Sharma, Tarun, 2024. "Market instrument for the first fuel and its role in decarbonizing Indian industrial production," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Carol Alexander & Xi Chen, 2021. "Model risk in real option valuation," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 299(1), pages 1025-1056, April.
    2. Babak Jafarizadeh & Reidar B. Bratvold, 2019. "Exploration economics: taking opportunities and the risk of double-counting risk," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 32(3), pages 323-335, November.
    3. Jing Ai & Patrick L. Brockett & Tianyang Wang, 2017. "Optimal Enterprise Risk Management and Decision Making With Shared and Dependent Risks," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 84(4), pages 1127-1169, December.
    4. Kim, Amy M. & Li, Huanan, 2020. "Incorporating the impacts of climate change in transportation infrastructure decision models," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 271-287.
    5. Secomandi, Nicola, 2022. "Quadratic hedging of risk neutral values," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    6. Sahoo, Nihar R. & Mohapatra, Pratap K.J. & Mahanty, Biswajit, 2018. "Examining the process of normalising the energy-efficiency targets for coal-based thermal power sector in India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 342-352.
    7. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2010. "Valuing Multifactor Real Options Using an Implied Binomial Tree," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 7(2), pages 185-195, June.
    8. Tianyang Wang & James S. Dyer, 2012. "A Copulas-Based Approach to Modeling Dependence in Decision Trees," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 225-242, February.
    9. Woodruff, Joshua & Dimitrov, Nedialko B., 2018. "Optimal discretization for decision analysis," Operations Research Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 288-305.
    10. Konstantin Pavlikov & Stan Uryasev, 2018. "CVaR distance between univariate probability distributions and approximation problems," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 262(1), pages 67-88, March.
    11. Shaton, Katerina, 2015. "Value of Flexibility in Gas Pipeline Investments," Chapters from the Proceedings of the Hamburg International Conference of Logistics (HICL), in: Kersten, Wolfgang & Blecker, Thorsten & Ringle, Christian M. (ed.), Innovations and Strategies for Logistics and Supply Chains: Technologies, Business Models and Risk Management. Proceedings of the Hamburg Internationa, volume 20, pages 333-357, Hamburg University of Technology (TUHH), Institute of Business Logistics and General Management.
    12. Fadhil Y. Al-Aboosi & Mahmoud M. El-Halwagi, 2019. "A Stochastic Optimization Approach to the Design of Shale Gas/Oil Wastewater Treatment Systems with Multiple Energy Sources under Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(18), pages 1-39, September.
    13. Alexander, David Richard & Mo, Mengjia & Stent, Alan Fraser, 2012. "Arithmetic Brownian motion and real options," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 219(1), pages 114-122.
    14. James E. Smith, 2005. "Alternative Approaches for Solving Real-Options Problems," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 2(2), pages 89-102, June.
    15. Sebastian Jaimungal & Yuri Lawryshyn, 2017. "Using managerial revenue and cost estimates to value early stage real option investments," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 259(1), pages 173-190, December.
    16. David Johnstone, 2017. "Sensitivity of the Discount Rate to the Expected Payoff in Project Valuation," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 14(2), pages 126-136, June.
    17. Nicola Secomandi, 2020. "Quadratic Hedging and Optimization of Option Exercise Policies," Papers 2001.05788, arXiv.org, revised May 2022.
    18. Zdenìk Zmeškal, 2008. "Application of the American Real Flexible Switch Options Methodology A Generalized Approach," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 58(05-06), pages 261-275, August.
    19. Pendharkar, Parag C., 2010. "Valuing interdependent multi-stage IT investments: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 201(3), pages 847-859, March.
    20. Sungchul Kim & Ronald Giachetti & Sangsung Park, 2018. "Real Options Analysis for Acquisition of New Technology: A Case Study of Korea K2 Tank’s Powerpack," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-18, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:enepol:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:624-633. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.