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Meta-emulation: An application to the social cost of carbon

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  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

A large database of published model results is used to estimate the distribution of the social cost of carbon as a function of the underlying assumptions. The literature on the social cost of carbon deviates in its assumptions from the literatures on the impacts of climate change, discounting, and risk aversion. The proposed meta-emulator corrects this. The social cost of carbon is higher than reported in the literature, by $29/tC at the median and by $139/tC at the 95th percentile.

Suggested Citation

  • Tol, Richard S.J., 2025. "Meta-emulation: An application to the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325008564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109026
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fankhauser, Samuel & S.J. Tol, Richard, 2005. "On climate change and economic growth," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 1-17, January.
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    5. Frances C. Moore & Moritz A. Drupp & James Rising & Simon Dietz & Ivan Rudik & Gernot Wagner, 2024. "Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 121(52), pages 2410733121-, December.
    6. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 532-536, June.
    7. Frikk Nesje & Moritz A. Drupp & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom, 2023. "Philosophers and economists agree on climate policy paths but for different reasons," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 515-522, June.
    8. Tol, Richard S.J., 2024. "A meta-analysis of the total economic impact of climate change," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
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    13. repec:aen:journl:1992v13-01-a04 is not listed on IDEAS
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    16. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    17. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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