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Meta-emulation: An application to the social cost of carbon

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  • Tol, Richard S.J.

Abstract

A large database of published model results is used to estimate the distribution of the social cost of carbon as a function of the underlying assumptions. The literature on the social cost of carbon deviates in its assumptions from the literatures on the impacts of climate change, discounting, and risk aversion. The proposed meta-emulator corrects this. The social cost of carbon is higher than reported in the literature, by $29/tC at the median and by $139/tC at the 95th percentile.

Suggested Citation

  • Tol, Richard S.J., 2025. "Meta-emulation: An application to the social cost of carbon," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:152:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325008564
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.109026
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frances C. Moore & Moritz A. Drupp & James Rising & Simon Dietz & Ivan Rudik & Gernot Wagner, 2024. "Synthesis of evidence yields high social cost of carbon due to structural model variation and uncertainties," Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 121(52), pages 2410733121-, December.
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    8. Stephen C. Peck & Thomas J. Teisberg, 1992. "CETA: A Model for Carbon Emissions Trajectory Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 13(1), pages 55-77, January.
    9. Jindrich Matousek & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova, 2022. "Individual discount rates: a meta-analysis of experimental evidence," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 25(1), pages 318-358, February.
    10. David Anthoff & Richard S. J. Tol, 2022. "Testing the Dismal Theorem," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(5), pages 885-920.
    11. Havranek, Tomas & Horvath, Roman & Irsova, Zuzana & Rusnak, Marek, 2015. "Cross-country heterogeneity in intertemporal substitution," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 100-118.
    12. Mikhail Golosov & John Hassler & Per Krusell & Aleh Tsyvinski, 2014. "Optimal Taxes on Fossil Fuel in General Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(1), pages 41-88, January.
    13. Richard S. J. Tol, 2023. "Social cost of carbon estimates have increased over time," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 532-536, June.
    14. Frikk Nesje & Moritz A. Drupp & Mark C. Freeman & Ben Groom, 2023. "Philosophers and economists agree on climate policy paths but for different reasons," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(6), pages 515-522, June.
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    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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