IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/eneeco/v144y2025ics0140988325001823.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do policies make a difference? Revealing the impact of diverse low-carbon policies on China's journey to carbon neutrality

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Yanfang
  • Gao, Qi
  • Shen, Yifan
  • Wang, Mei
  • Zhou, Dequn

Abstract

By quantifying the emission reduction impacts of regional low-carbon initiatives, this paper bridges policy design and implementation, highlighting actionable pathways to enhance regional contributions to global climate goals. Utilizing a novel dataset encompassing over 2600 regional low-carbon policies implemented across 30 Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2021, we employed a two-way fixed effects model to evaluate their effectiveness in reducing carbon emissions and further analyzed the heterogeneity of policy effects across policy types and regions. Overall, the issued policies lead to an average annual reduction of 10.42 % in per capita carbon emissions and 7.50 % in carbon intensity, significantly advancing carbon neutrality efforts. However, inland northwest regions like Ningxia, Xinjiang, and Inner Mongolia, despite accounting for a third of emissions, saw minimal policy impact. Notably, strategy-based policies proved most effective, with each additional strategy reducing per capita emissions growth by 1.0 % and carbon intensity growth by 0.8 %. Furthermore, the dynamic cumulative effects of these policies, alongside their interactive influences on local economic development levels and government efficiency, are empirically validated, underscoring the importance of tailored policy frameworks. To enhance the effectiveness of low-carbon initiatives, cross-regional collaborations must be prioritized, especially through long-distance cooperative models that transcend geographic barriers. Neighboring provinces should leverage geographic, economic, and energy structural similarities to establish low-carbon development alliances, facilitating technology sharing and resource integration.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Yanfang & Gao, Qi & Shen, Yifan & Wang, Mei & Zhou, Dequn, 2025. "Do policies make a difference? Revealing the impact of diverse low-carbon policies on China's journey to carbon neutrality," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:144:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325001823
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108358
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988325001823
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eneco.2025.108358?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rogge, Karoline S. & Schleich, Joachim, 2018. "Do policy mix characteristics matter for low-carbon innovation? A survey-based exploration of renewable power generation technologies in Germany," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 47(9), pages 1639-1654.
    2. You, Zhuoying & Teirlinck, Peter, 2024. "Specialization in climate technologies at the regional level in Europe: relatedness and the moderating role of policy direction," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 203(C).
    3. Dimanchev, Emil & Knittel, Christopher R., 2023. "Designing climate policy mixes: Analytical and energy system modeling approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    4. Nicholas Stern & Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," POID Working Papers 008, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    5. Kern, Florian & Rogge, Karoline S. & Howlett, Michael, 2019. "Policy mixes for sustainability transitions: New approaches and insights through bridging innovation and policy studies," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(10).
    6. Jia, Zhijie & Wen, Shiyan, 2024. "Interaction effects of market-based and incentive-driven low-carbon policies on carbon emissions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(C).
    7. Dorothée Charlier & Mouez Fodha & Djamel Kirat, 2023. "Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment," The Energy Journal, , vol. 44(5), pages 187-206, September.
    8. Cojoianu, Theodor F. & Clark, Gordon L. & Hoepner, Andreas G.F. & Veneri, Paolo & Wójcik, Dariusz, 2020. "Entrepreneurs for a low carbon world: How environmental knowledge and policy shape the creation and financing of green start-ups," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(6).
    9. Du, Kerui & Cheng, Yuanyuan & Yao, Xin, 2021. "Environmental regulation, green technology innovation, and industrial structure upgrading: The road to the green transformation of Chinese cities," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    10. Nuno Bento & Gianfranco Gianfrate & Joseph E. Aldy, 2021. "National Climate Policies and Corporate Internal Carbon Pricing," The Energy Journal, , vol. 42(5), pages 89-100, September.
    11. Galik, Christopher S. & Abt, Robert C. & Latta, Gregory & Vegh, Tibor, 2015. "The environmental and economic effects of regional bioenergy policy in the southeastern U.S," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 335-346.
    12. Zhou, Zejia & Wu, Desheng, 2024. "Internal trade and environmental policy effectiveness in developing countries: A binary endogenous growth model with regional Heterogeneity," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PB), pages 777-796.
    13. Arcila, Andres & Baker, John D., 2022. "Evaluating carbon tax policy: A methodological reassessment of a natural experiment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    14. Shaikh M. S. U. Eskander & Sam Fankhauser, 2020. "Reduction in greenhouse gas emissions from national climate legislation," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 10(8), pages 750-756, August.
    15. Chen, Guifu & Wei, Boyu, 2024. "Low-carbon city pilots and site selection for migrant employment: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    16. Zhang, Yanfang & Wei, Jinpeng & Gao, Qi & Shi, Xunpeng & Zhou, Dequn, 2022. "Coordination between the energy-consumption permit trading scheme and carbon emissions trading: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Hu, Zhining, 2022. "Six types of government policies and housing prices in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 108(C).
    18. Hu, Xing & Guo, Yingying & Zheng, Yali & Liu, Lan-cui & Yu, Shiwei, 2022. "Which types of policies better promote the development of renewable energy? Evidence from China's provincial data," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 1373-1382.
    19. Nuno Bento, Gianfranco Gianfrate, and Joseph E. Aldy, 2021. "National Climate Policies and Corporate Internal Carbon Pricing," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    20. Pan, Weijie & Shittu, Ekundayo, 2025. "Assessment of mobility decarbonization with carbon tax policies and electric vehicle incentives in the U.S," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 379(C).
    21. Junming Zhu & Yichun Fan & Xinghua Deng & Lan Xue, 2019. "Low-carbon innovation induced by emissions trading in China," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-8, December.
    22. Peipei Chen & Yi Wu & Jing Meng & Pan He & Deyu Li & D’ Maris Coffman & Xi Liang & Dabo Guan, 2022. "The heterogeneous role of energy policies in the energy transition of Asia–Pacific emerging economies," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(7), pages 588-596, July.
    23. Pan, An & Zhang, Wenna & Shi, Xunpeng & Dai, Ling, 2022. "Climate policy and low-carbon innovation: Evidence from low-carbon city pilots in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    24. Li, Kai & Qi, Shouzhou & Shi, Xunpeng, 2023. "Environmental policies and low-carbon industrial upgrading: Heterogenous effects among policies, sectors, and technologies in China," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    25. Chang, Chun-Ping & Wen, Jun & Zheng, Mingbo & Dong, Minyi & Hao, Yu, 2018. "Is higher government efficiency conducive to improving energy use efficiency? Evidence from OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 65-77.
    26. Jiang, Pansong & Zha, Donglan & Yang, Guanglei & Xia, Dan, 2024. "Which decarbonization policy mixes are better for China's power sector? A simulation balancing aggregate abatement effects and economic impacts," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    27. Hille, Erik & Althammer, Wilhelm & Diederich, Henning, 2020. "Environmental regulation and innovation in renewable energy technologies: Does the policy instrument matter?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    28. Pan, Xiongfeng & Wang, Mengyang & Li, Mengna, 2023. "Low-carbon policy and industrial structure upgrading: Based on the perspective of strategic interaction among local governments," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    29. Wang, Chang’an & Liu, Xiaoqian & Li, Han & Yang, Cunyi, 2023. "Analyzing the impact of low-carbon city pilot policy on enterprises' labor demand: Evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    30. Michael E. Porter & Claas van der Linde, 1995. "Toward a New Conception of the Environment-Competitiveness Relationship," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 97-118, Fall.
    31. Zhou, Tao & Huang, Xuhui & Zhang, Ning, 2023. "The effect of innovation pilot on carbon total factor productivity: Quasi-experimental evidence from China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    32. Liu, Hongxun & Gao, Jinfeng & Tian, Peng & Ma, Xiaoming & Meng, Guanfei & Yang, Jingnan & Li, Zhi, 2023. "The impact of environmental regulation on productivity with co-production of goods and bads," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    33. Stern, Nicholas & Sivropoulos-Valero, Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 114385, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    34. Manuel Linsenmeier & Adil Mohommad & Gregor Schwerhoff, 2023. "Global benefits of the international diffusion of carbon pricing policies," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 13(7), pages 679-684, July.
    35. Yang, Shubo & Jahanger, Atif & Hossain, Mohammad Razib, 2023. "How effective has the low-carbon city pilot policy been as an environmental intervention in curbing pollution? Evidence from Chinese industrial enterprises," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    36. Ren, Zhuanzhuan & Zheng, Jiali & He, Minna & Coffman, D'Maris & Wang, Shouyang, 2024. "The effect of the multi-target energy and climate policy on carbon emissions: County-level evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 291(C).
    37. Nicholas Stern & Anna Valero, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," CEP Discussion Papers dp1773, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
    38. Stern, Nicholas & Valero, Anna, 2021. "Innovation, growth and the transition to net-zero emissions," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(9).
    39. Dorothée Charlier, Mouez Fodha, and Djamel Kirat, 2023. "Residential CO2 Emissions in Europe and Carbon Taxation: A Country-Level Assessment," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    40. Fredriksson, Per G. & Millimet, Daniel L., 2002. "Strategic Interaction and the Determination of Environmental Policy across U.S. States," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 101-122, January.
    41. Tian, Zhiguang & Mu, Xianzhong, 2024. "Towards China's dual-carbon target: Energy efficiency analysis of cities in the Yellow River Basin based on a “geography and high-quality development” heterogeneity framework," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 306(C).
    42. Zhao, Kai & Gao, Yu & Liu, Xiaoman, 2025. "The impact of environmental regulation on industrial structure upgrading: A case study of low carbon city pilot policy," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gao, Xing & Lai, Xinjie & Tang, Xuan & Li, Yue, 2024. "Does environmental regulation affect corporate environmental awareness? A quasi-natural experiment based on low-carbon city pilot policy," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 1164-1184.
    2. Hu, Hui & Qi, Shaozhou & Chen, Yuanzhi, 2023. "Using green technology for a better tomorrow: How enterprises and government utilize the carbon trading system and incentive policies," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    3. Hu, Lei & Song, Min & Wen, Fenghua & Zhang, Yun & Zhao, Yunning, 2025. "The impact of climate attention on risk spillover effect in energy futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    4. Huang, Zhehao & Dong, Hao & Liu, Zhaofei & Albitar, Khaldoon, 2025. "Unleashing the empowered effect of data resource on inclusive green growth: Based on double machine learning," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1270-1290.
    5. Tao, Miaomiao & Wu, Sihong, 2025. "From polluter pays to polluter reborn: Exploring the economic and green implications of corporate carbon risk exposure," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    6. Li, Lanbing & Zhao, Jiawei & Yang, Yuhan & Ma, Dan, 2025. "Artificial intelligence and green development well-being: Effects and mechanisms in China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    7. Rajan Kumar Gangadhari & Saliha Karadayi‐Usta & Weng Marc Lim, 2025. "Breaking barriers toward a net‐zero economy," Natural Resources Forum, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(1), pages 138-159, February.
    8. Yan, Zheming & Sun, Zao & Shi, Rui & Zhao, Minjuan, 2023. "Smart city and green development: Empirical evidence from the perspective of green technological innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 191(C).
    9. Emma Serwaa Obobisa, 2024. "An econometric study of eco‐innovation, clean energy, and trade openness toward carbon neutrality and sustainable development in OECD countries," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(4), pages 3075-3099, August.
    10. Palea, Vera & Gordano, Silvia & Miazza, Aline & Lemme, Michele & Migliavacca, Alessandro, "undated". "Corporate awareness and readiness to climate change: Evidence from the GRINS project on Piedmont data," Department of Economics and Statistics Cognetti de Martiis. Working Papers 202503, University of Turin.
    11. Chao Zeng & Shanying Jiang & Fengxiu Zhou, 2024. "Can Low-Carbon City Pilot Policy Promote Regional Green High-Quality Development?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(13), pages 1-23, June.
    12. Brouillat, Eric & Saint Jean, Maïder, 2020. "Mind the gap: Investigating the impact of implementation gaps on cleaner technology transition," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    13. Li, Haichao & Su, Yuqi & Ding, Chante Jian & Tian, Gary Gang & Wu, Zhan, 2024. "Unveiling the green innovation paradox: Exploring the impact of carbon emission reduction on corporate green technology innovation," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 207(C).
    14. Tripathi, Sumit & Trigunait, Roma, 2025. "Exploring sustainable consumer behaviour in retail: A teacher-student model framework for socio-economic insights," Journal of Retailing and Consumer Services, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Wang, Lisha & Pan, Minjie & Qian, Xinlei & Lv, Kangjuan, 2025. "Do specialized courts matter? Environmental judiciary and corporate emissions in China," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    16. Agarwala, Matthew & Burke, Matt & Klusak, Patrycja & Mohaddes, Kamiar & Volz, Ulrich & Zenghelis, Dimitri, 2021. "Climate Change And Fiscal Sustainability: Risks And Opportunities," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 258, pages 28-46, November.
    17. Tan, Ruipeng & Hou, Ke & Wu, Huaqing, 2025. "The cost of biodiversity protection: National Key Ecological Functional Zone and labor demand in China," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    18. Wei, Chuanhui & Zhang, Yongji & Lan, Minghui & Su, Zhi & Du, Heran & Wang, Ke, 2024. "How could we benefit from a low-carbon economy? Evidence from Chinese regional labor markets," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 523-537.
    19. Nuñez-Jimenez, Alejandro & Knoeri, Christof & Hoppmann, Joern & Hoffmann, Volker H., 2022. "Beyond innovation and deployment: Modeling the impact of technology-push and demand-pull policies in Germany's solar policy mix," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(10).
    20. Zhang, Pengyang & Zhang, Shuo & Liu, Yu & Peng, Rui & Feng, Kuo, 2024. "China's Low-carbon city policy and manufacturing firms' servitization: Do environmental regulations matterʔ," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:144:y:2025:i:c:s0140988325001823. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.