IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/empfin/v17y2010i3p485-500.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Tracking a changing copula

Author

Listed:
  • Harvey, Andrew

Abstract

A copula models the relationships between variables independently of their marginal distributions. When the variables are time series, the copula may change over time. Recursive procedures based on indicator variables are proposed for tracking these changes over time. Estimation of the unknown parameters is by maximum likelihood. When the marginal distributions change, pre-filtering is necessary before constructing the indicator variables on which the recursions are based. This entails estimating time-varying quantiles and a simple method based on time-varying histograms is proposed. The techniques are applied to the Hong Kong and Korean stock market indices. Some interesting and unexpected movements are detected, particularly after the attack on the Hong Kong dollar in 1997.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvey, Andrew, 2010. "Tracking a changing copula," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 485-500, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:485-500
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0927-5398(09)00086-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. DeRossi, G. & Harvey, A., 2006. "Time-Varying Quantiles," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0649, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    2. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Christoffersen, Peter F. & Diebold, Francis X., 2006. "Volatility and Correlation Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    3. De Rossi, Giuliano & Harvey, Andrew, 2009. "Quantiles, expectiles and splines," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 152(2), pages 179-185, October.
    4. Kee-Hong Bae & G. Andrew Karolyi & René M. Stulz, 2003. "A New Approach to Measuring Financial Contagion," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 717-763, July.
    5. Jean-David FERMANIAN & Olivier SCAILLET, 2003. "Nonparametric Estimation of Copulas for Time Series," FAME Research Paper Series rp57, International Center for Financial Asset Management and Engineering.
    6. Harvey, A., 2008. "Dynamic distributions and changing copulas," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0839, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Jondeau, Eric & Rockinger, Michael, 2003. "Conditional volatility, skewness, and kurtosis: existence, persistence, and comovements," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(10), pages 1699-1737, August.
    8. van den Goorbergh, Rob W.J. & Genest, Christian & Werker, Bas J.M., 2005. "Bivariate option pricing using dynamic copula models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 101-114, August.
    9. Fabio Busetti & Andrew Harvey, 2011. "When is a Copula Constant? A Test for Changing Relationships," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 9(1), pages 106-131, Winter.
    10. Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
    11. Kim, Tae-Hwan & White, Halbert, 2004. "On more robust estimation of skewness and kurtosis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 56-73, March.
    12. Rodriguez, Juan Carlos, 2007. "Measuring financial contagion: A Copula approach," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 401-423, June.
    13. Andrew J. Patton, 2006. "Modelling Asymmetric Exchange Rate Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 47(2), pages 527-556, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Harvey, Andrew & Thiele, Stephen, 2016. "Testing against changing correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 575-589.
    2. Harvey, Andrew & Oryshchenko, Vitaliy, 2012. "Kernel density estimation for time series data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 3-14.
    3. Wang, Yi-Chiuan & Wu, Jyh-Lin & Lai, Yi-Hao, 2013. "A revisit to the dependence structure between the stock and foreign exchange markets: A dependence-switching copula approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1706-1719.
    4. Rémillard, Bruno & Papageorgiou, Nicolas & Soustra, Frédéric, 2012. "Copula-based semiparametric models for multivariate time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 30-42.
    5. Fry-McKibbin, Renée & Martin, Vance L. & Tang, Chrismin, 2014. "Financial contagion and asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 296-308.
    6. Patton, Andrew J., 2012. "A review of copula models for economic time series," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 4-18.
    7. Patton, Andrew, 2013. "Copula Methods for Forecasting Multivariate Time Series," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:17:y:2010:i:3:p:485-500. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jempfin .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.