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Testing against changing correlation

Author

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  • Harvey, Andrew
  • Thiele, Stephen

Abstract

A test for time-varying correlation is developed within the framework of a dynamic conditional score (DCS) model for both Gaussian and Student t-distributions. The test may be interpreted as a Lagrange multiplier test and modified to allow for the estimation of models for time-varying volatility in the individual series. Unlike standard moment-based tests, the score-based test statistic includes information on the level of correlation under the null hypothesis and local power arguments indicate the benefits of doing so. A simulation study shows that the performance of the score-based test is strong relative to existing tests across a range of data generating processes. An application to the Hong Kong and South Korean equity markets shows that the new test reveals changes in correlation that are not detected by the standard moment-based test.

Suggested Citation

  • Harvey, Andrew & Thiele, Stephen, 2016. "Testing against changing correlation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 575-589.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:empfin:v:38:y:2016:i:pb:p:575-589
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jempfin.2015.09.003
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    12. Abadir,Karim M. & Magnus,Jan R., 2005. "Matrix Algebra," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521537469, January.
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    15. repec:cup:cbooks:9780521822893 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2013. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 777-795, August.
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Harvey & Ryoko Ito, 2017. "Modeling time series with zero observations," Economics Papers 2017-W01, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    2. Michel Ferreira Cardia Haddad & Szabolcs Blazsek & Philip Arestis & Franz Fuerst & Hsia Hua Sheng, 2023. "The two-component Beta-t-QVAR-M-lev: a new forecasting model," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 37(4), pages 379-401, December.
    3. Song, Shijia & Tian, Fei & Li, Handong, 2021. "An intraday-return-based Value-at-Risk model driven by dynamic conditional score with censored generalized Pareto distribution," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    4. Mauro Bernardi & Leopoldo Catania, 2015. "Switching-GAS Copula Models With Application to Systemic Risk," Papers 1504.03733, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2016.
    5. Harvey, A. & Hurn, S. & Thiele, S., 2019. "Modeling directional (circular) time series," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1971, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    6. Harvey, A., 2021. "Score-driven time series models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2133, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    7. Astrid Ayala & Szabolcs Blazsek, 2018. "Equity market neutral hedge funds and the stock market: an application of score-driven copula models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(37), pages 4005-4023, August.
    8. Davide Delle Monache & Andrea De Polis & Ivan Petrella, 2024. "Modeling and Forecasting Macroeconomic Downside Risk," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(3), pages 1010-1025, July.
    9. Song, Shijia & Li, Handong, 2022. "Predicting VaR for China's stock market: A score-driven model based on normal inverse Gaussian distribution," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Sakurai, Yuji & Kurosaki, Tetsuo, 2023. "Have cryptocurrencies become an inflation hedge after the reopening of the U.S. economy?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    11. Andrew Harvey & Dario Palumbo, 2023. "Regime switching models for circular and linear time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(4), pages 374-392, July.
    12. Harvey, Andew & Liao, Yin, 2023. "Dynamic Tobit models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 72-83.
    13. repec:wrk:wrkemf:34 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Harvey, Andrew & Ito, Ryoko, 2020. "Modeling time series when some observations are zero," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 214(1), pages 33-45.
    15. Palumbo, D., 2021. "Testing and Modelling Time Series with Time Varying Tails," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 2111, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
    16. Harvey, A. & Liao, Y., 2019. "Dynamic Tobit models," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1913, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dynamic conditional score; EGARCH; Lagrange multiplier test; Portmanteau test; Time-varying covariance matrices;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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