Value investing in emerging markets: risks and benefits
This paper identifies a subset of emerging markets that have higher than average expected returns and studies risk properties of this subset by investment simulations. It is found that: (1) the portfolio of "value" emerging markets generates superior returns, and (2) statistical measures of its risk are close to the corresponding measures for the portfolio of all emerging markets. The statistical significance of these results were checked by a bootstrap procedure. The results imply that the optimal share of emerging markets increases from 0% for an equally weighted portfolio to about 25% for the portfolio of undervalued emerging markets.
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- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 2000.
"A Recursive Modelling Approach to Predicting UK Stock Returns,"
Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(460), pages 159-191, January.
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- William Goetzmann & Philippe Jorion, 1998. "Re-emerging Markets," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm50, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Aug 2000.
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- Bekaert, Geert & Harvey, Campbell R., 2003. "Emerging markets finance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1-2), pages 3-56, February.
- Tom Arnold & Philip Hersch & J. Harold Mulherin & Jeffry Netter, 1999. "Merging Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 1083-1107, June.
- Masters, Timothy, 1998. "Just what are we optimizing, anyway?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 277-290, June.
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