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Maximum entropy autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model

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  • Park, Sung Y.
  • Bera, Anil K.

Abstract

In many applications, it has been found that the autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (ARCH) model under the conditional normal or Student's t distributions are not general enough to account for the excess kurtosis in the data. Moreover, asymmetry in the financial data is rarely modeled in a systematic way. In this paper, we suggest a general density function based on the maximum entropy (ME) approach that takes account of asymmetry, excess kurtosis and also of high peakedness. The ME principle is based on the efficient use of available information, and as is well known, many of the standard family of distributions can be derived from the ME approach. We demonstrate how we can extract information functional from the data in the form of moment functions. We also propose a test procedure for selecting appropriate moment functions. Our procedure is illustrated with an application to the NYSE stock returns. The empirical results reveal that the ME approach with a fewer moment functions leads to a model that captures the stylized facts quite effectively.

Suggested Citation

  • Park, Sung Y. & Bera, Anil K., 2009. "Maximum entropy autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 219-230, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:150:y:2009:i:2:p:219-230
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    Cited by:

    1. Vilkkumaa, Eeva & Liesiö, Juuso & Salo, Ahti, 2014. "Optimal strategies for selecting project portfolios using uncertain value estimates," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 233(3), pages 772-783.
    2. Tack, Jesse, 2013. "A Nested Test for Common Yield Distributions with Applications to U.S. Corn," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 38(1), April.
    3. Namaki, A. & Koohi Lai, Z. & Jafari, G.R. & Raei, R. & Tehrani, R., 2013. "Comparing emerging and mature markets during times of crises: A non-extensive statistical approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(14), pages 3039-3044.
    4. Carol Alexander & Jose Maria Sarabia, 2010. "Endogenizing Model Risk to Quantile Estimates," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2010-07, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    5. Bera, A. K. & Galvao Jr, A. F. & Montes-Rojas, G. & Park, S. Y., 2010. "Which quantile is the most informative? Maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and quantile regression," Working Papers 10/08, Department of Economics, City University London.
    6. Usta, Ilhan & Kantar, Yeliz Mert, 2011. "On the performance of the flexible maximum entropy distributions within partially adaptive estimation," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 2172-2182, June.
    7. Chen, Yi-Ting, 2012. "A simple approach to standardized-residuals-based higher-moment tests," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 427-453.
    8. repec:eee:transb:v:102:y:2017:i:c:p:1-21 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Bera Anil K. & Galvao Antonio F. & Montes-Rojas Gabriel V. & Park Sung Y., 2016. "Asymmetric Laplace Regression: Maximum Likelihood, Maximum Entropy and Quantile Regression," Journal of Econometric Methods, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 79-101, January.
    10. Vladimir Zdorovenin & Jacques Pézier, 2011. "Does Information Content of Option Prices Add Value for Asset Allocation?," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2011-03, Henley Business School, Reading University.
    11. Domenico Di Gangi & Fabrizio Lillo & Davide Pirino, 2015. "Assessing systemic risk due to fire sales spillover through maximum entropy network reconstruction," Papers 1509.00607, arXiv.org.

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