IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecomod/v501y2025ics0304380024003806.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Permafrost environment evaluation of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau based on DPSRC theory and system dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Ye, Yi-Ning
  • Chou, Ya-Ling
  • Zhao, Dong
  • Cao, Wei
  • Xu, Jia-Wei
  • Wang, Ai-Jun

Abstract

As the concept of sustainable development continues to evolve, the changes in permafrost environment under the influence of engineering construction and climate change have received more and more attention from scholars at home and abroad. Herein, to solve the dependence of each factor on time and complexity of the interactions among factors in permafrost environment, a comprehensive evaluation model based on Driving Force-Pressure-State-Response-Control (DPSRC) theory and system dynamics (SD) was proposed. This model can evaluate permafrost environment of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau which is effected by climate change (CC), engineering construction (EC), and artificial prevention measures (APM). The evaluation system of permafrost environment was established according to DPSRC theory. Based on SD, a casual loop model and a stock-and-flow model with three subsystem models were established to evaluate permafrost environment. Then, the validity of the comprehensive evaluation model is verified. Chai-Mu Railway was taken as the research section and set whether to use artificial prevention measures (APM) as the simulation condition to obtain the regional permafrost environment evaluation under different scenarios. The evaluation results show that artificial prevention measures (APM) were necessary for regional permafrost environment, special subgrade (thermosyphon subgrade) treatment was more effective than ecological protection investment. This comprehensive evaluation model was objective and reliable, and can provide a basis for the protection and management of permafrost environment in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Ye, Yi-Ning & Chou, Ya-Ling & Zhao, Dong & Cao, Wei & Xu, Jia-Wei & Wang, Ai-Jun, 2025. "Permafrost environment evaluation of Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau based on DPSRC theory and system dynamics," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 501(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:501:y:2025:i:c:s0304380024003806
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110992
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0304380024003806
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2024.110992?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Christian Bommer & Marcia Phillips & Lukas U. Arenson, 2010. "Practical recommendations for planning, constructing and maintaining infrastructure in mountain permafrost," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 21(1), pages 97-104, January.
    2. Walters, Jeffrey P. & Archer, David W. & Sassenrath, Gretchen F. & Hendrickson, John R. & Hanson, Jon D. & Halloran, John M. & Vadas, Peter & Alarcon, Vladimir J., 2016. "Exploring agricultural production systems and their fundamental components with system dynamics modelling," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 333(C), pages 51-65.
    3. Zhang, Zhengrong & Li, Xuemei & Liu, Xinyu & Zhao, Kaixin, 2024. "Dynamic simulation and projection of land use change using system dynamics model in the Chinese Tianshan mountainous region, central Asia," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 487(C).
    4. Yu, Xianyu & Wu, Zemin & Wang, Qunwei & Sang, Xiuzhi & Zhou, Dequn, 2020. "Exploring the investment strategy of power enterprises under the nationwide carbon emissions trading mechanism: A scenario-based system dynamics approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Emmanuel Garbolino & Jean‐Pierre Chery & Franck Guarnieri, 2016. "A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 16-29, January.
    6. Kienast, Felix & Frick, Jacqueline & van Strien, Maarten J. & Hunziker, Marcel, 2015. "The Swiss Landscape Monitoring Program – A comprehensive indicator set to measure landscape change," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 295(C), pages 136-150.
    7. Spangenberg, J.H. & Douguet, J.-M. & Settele, J. & Heong, K.L., 2015. "Escaping the lock-in of continuous insecticide spraying in rice: Developing an integrated ecological and socio-political DPSIR analysis," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 295(C), pages 188-195.
    8. Liu, Zhenhai & Chen, Bin & Wang, Shaoqiang & Wang, Qinyi & Chen, Jinghua & Shi, Weibo & Wang, Xiaobo & Liu, Yuanyuan & Tu, Yongkai & Huang, Mei & Wang, Junbang & Wang, Zhaosheng & Li, Hui & Zhu, Tongt, 2021. "The impacts of vegetation on the soil surface freezing-thawing processes at permafrost southern edge simulated by an improved process-based ecosystem model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 456(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Hua Pan & Huimin Zhu & Minmin Teng, 2023. "Low-Carbon Transformation Strategy for Blockchain-Based Power Supply Chain," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Wu, Jiansong & Zhang, Linlin & Bai, Yiping & Reniers, Genserik, 2022. "A safety investment optimization model for power grid enterprises based on System Dynamics and Bayesian network theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 221(C).
    4. Tan, Xiujie & Sun, Qian & Wang, Meiji & Se Cheong, Tsun & Yan Shum, Wai & Huang, Jinpeng, 2022. "Assessing the effects of emissions trading systems on energy consumption and energy mix," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 310(C).
    5. Ana Paula Coelho Clauberg & Renato de Mello & Flávio José Simioni & Simone Sehnem, 2021. "System for assessing the sustainability conditions of small hydro plants by fuzzy logic," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(2), pages 300-317, March.
    6. Ali, Muhammad Fadzli & Akber, Md. Ali & Smith, Carl & Aziz, Ammar Abdul, 2021. "The dynamics of rubber production in Malaysia: Potential impacts, challenges and proposed interventions," Forest Policy and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    7. Wang, Delu & Gan, Jun & Mao, Jinqi & Chen, Fan & Yu, Lan, 2023. "Forecasting power demand in China with a CNN-LSTM model including multimodal information," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 263(PE).
    8. Steliana Rodino & Ruxandra Pop & Cristina Sterie & Andreea Giuca & Eduard Dumitru, 2023. "Developing an Evaluation Framework for Circular Agriculture: A Pathway to Sustainable Farming," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-24, October.
    9. Matinzadeh, Mohammad Mehdi & Abedi Koupai, Jahangir & Sadeghi-Lari, Adnan & Nozari, Hamed & Shayannejad, Mohammad, 2017. "Development of an innovative integrated model for the simulation of nitrogen dynamics in farmlands with drainage systems using the system dynamics approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 347(C), pages 11-28.
    10. Sahar AlMashaqbeh & Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez, 2023. "Risk Analysis under a Circular Economy Context Using a Systems Thinking Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Tonnang, Henri E.Z. & Hervé, Bisseleua D.B. & Biber-Freudenberger, Lisa & Salifu, Daisy & Subramanian, Sevgan & Ngowi, Valentine B. & Guimapi, Ritter Y.A. & Anani, Bruce & Kakmeni, Francois M.M. & Aff, 2017. "Advances in crop insect modelling methods—Towards a whole system approach," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 354(C), pages 88-103.
    12. Cooper, Gregory S. & Rich, Karl M. & Shankar, Bhavani & Rana, Vinay & Ratna, Nazmun N. & Kadiyala, Suneetha & Alam, Mohammad J. & Nadagouda, Sharan B., 2021. "Identifying ‘win-win-win’ futures from inequitable value chain trade-offs: A system dynamics approach," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 190(C).
    13. Espinoza Pérez, Lorena & Espinoza Pérez, Andrea & Vásquez, Óscar C., 2024. "Evaluation of mitigation initiatives for simultaneous air pollution and municipal solid waste systems: A System Dynamics Approach," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
    14. Zhang, Xinyue & Guo, Xiaopeng & Zhang, Xingping, 2023. "Assessing the policy synergy among power, carbon emissions trading and tradable green certificate market mechanisms on strategic GENCOs in China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 278(PB).
    15. Igor Krejčí & Pavel Moulis & Jana Pitrová & Ivana Tichá & Ladislav Pilař & Jan Rydval, 2019. "Traps and Opportunities of Czech Small-Scale Beef Cattle Farming," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(15), pages 1-26, August.
    16. Lhermie, Guillaume & Wernli, Didier & Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard & Kenkel, Donald & Lin Lawell, C.-Y. Cynthia & Tauer, Loren William & Gröhn, Yrjo Tapio, 2019. "Tradeoffs between resistance to antimicrobials in public health and their use in agriculture: Moving towards sustainability assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1-1.
    17. Benabderrazik, K. & Kopainsky, B. & Tazi, L. & Joerin, J. & Six, J., 2021. "Agricultural intensification can no longer ignore water conservation – A systemic modelling approach to the case of tomato producers in Morocco," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 256(C).
    18. Feng, Huchen & Hu, Yu-Jie & Li, Chengjiang & Wang, Honglei, 2023. "Rolling horizon optimisation strategy and initial carbon allowance allocation model to reduce carbon emissions in the power industry: Case of China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 277(C).
    19. Levandivskyi Omelian & Shpykuliak Oleksandr & Balaniuk Ivan & Svynous Ivan & Shelenko Diana, 2022. "Modeling of Added Value as a Financial Indicator of Activity of Agricultural Enterprises in the Regions of Ukraine," Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Sciendo, vol. 44(3), pages 288-301, September.
    20. Chen, Sai & Ding, Yueting & Song, Yan & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2023. "Study on China's energy system resilience under the scenarios of long-term shortage of imported oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecomod:v:501:y:2025:i:c:s0304380024003806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/ecological-modelling .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.