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A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study

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  • Emmanuel Garbolino
  • Jean‐Pierre Chery
  • Franck Guarnieri

Abstract

Seveso plants are complex sociotechnical systems, which makes it appropriate to support any risk assessment with a model of the system. However, more often than not, this step is only partially addressed, simplified, or avoided in safety reports. At the same time, investigations have shown that the complexity of industrial systems is frequently a factor in accidents, due to interactions between their technical, human, and organizational dimensions. In order to handle both this complexity and changes in the system over time, this article proposes an original and simplified qualitative risk evaluation method based on the system dynamics theory developed by Forrester in the early 1960s. The methodology supports the development of a dynamic risk assessment framework dedicated to industrial activities. It consists of 10 complementary steps grouped into two main activities: system dynamics modeling of the sociotechnical system and risk analysis. This system dynamics risk analysis is applied to a case study of a chemical plant and provides a way to assess the technological and organizational components of safety.

Suggested Citation

  • Emmanuel Garbolino & Jean‐Pierre Chery & Franck Guarnieri, 2016. "A Simplified Approach to Risk Assessment Based on System Dynamics: An Industrial Case Study," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 36(1), pages 16-29, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:riskan:v:36:y:2016:i:1:p:16-29
    DOI: 10.1111/risa.12534
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    Cited by:

    1. Tzu Yang Loh & Mario P. Brito & Neil Bose & Jingjing Xu & Kiril Tenekedjiev, 2020. "Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(4), pages 818-841, April.
    2. Qianxiang Zhu & Yuanqing Qin & Chunjie Zhou & Weiwei Gao, 2018. "Extended multilevel flow model-based dynamic risk assessment for cybersecurity protection in industrial production systems," International Journal of Distributed Sensor Networks, , vol. 14(6), pages 15501477187, June.
    3. Jie Yin & Xiang-min Zheng & Ruey-Chyn Tsaur, 2019. "Occurrence mechanism and coping paths of accidents of highly aggregated tourist crowds based on system dynamics," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(9), pages 1-16, September.
    4. David M. Vanlandingham & Wesley Hampton & Kimberly M. Thompson & Kamran Badizadegan, 2020. "Modeling Pathology Workload and Complexity to Manage Risks and Improve Patient Quality and Safety," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(2), pages 421-434, February.
    5. Sahar AlMashaqbeh & Jose Eduardo Munive-Hernandez, 2023. "Risk Analysis under a Circular Economy Context Using a Systems Thinking Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-17, February.
    6. Chen, Sai & Ding, Yueting & Song, Yan & Zhang, Ming & Nie, Rui, 2023. "Study on China's energy system resilience under the scenarios of long-term shortage of imported oil," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 270(C).
    7. Hendalianpour, Ayad & Liu, Peide & Amirghodsi, Sirous & Hamzehlou, Mohammad, 2022. "Designing a System Dynamics model to simulate criteria affecting oil and gas development contracts," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Chen, Sai & Zhang, Ming & Ding, Yueting & Nie, Rui, 2020. "Resilience of China's oil import system under external shocks: A system dynamics simulation analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    9. John Hamer Powell & Michael Hammond & Albert Chen & Navonil Mustafee, 2018. "Human Agency in Disaster Planning: A Systems Approach," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 38(7), pages 1422-1443, July.

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