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An evaluation of private forecasts of interest rate targets in Brazil

  • Baghestani, Hamid
  • Marchon, Cassia
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    This study shows that the private sector accurately predicts short-term interest rate targets set by the Brazilian monetary authorities. With increased transparency under inflation targeting, such evidence suggests that the public perceives the central bank as credible.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

    Volume (Year): 115 (2012)
    Issue (Month): 3 ()
    Pages: 352-355

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:115:y:2012:i:3:p:352-355
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    1. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
    2. Lyziak, Tomasz & Mackiewicz, Joanna & Stanislawska, Ewa, 2007. "Central bank transparency and credibility: The case of Poland, 1998-2004," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 67-87, March.
    3. Graham Elliott & Ivana Komunjer & Allan Timmermann, 2005. "Biases In Macroeconomic Forecasts: Irrationality Or Asymmetric Loss?," CAMA Working Papers 2005-14, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    4. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    5. Minella, Andre & de Freitas, Paulo Springer & Goldfajn, Ilan & Muinhos, Marcelo Kfoury, 2003. "Inflation targeting in Brazil: constructing credibility under exchange rate volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 1015-1040, December.
    6. Brito, Ricardo D. & Bystedt, Brianne, 2010. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: Panel evidence," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 198-210, March.
    7. Ben S. Bernanke & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Inflation forecasts and monetary policy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 653-686.
    8. Alan S. Blinder, 2000. "Central-Bank Credibility: Why Do We Care? How Do We Build It?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1421-1431, December.
    9. Newey, Whitney K & West, Kenneth D, 1987. "A Simple, Positive Semi-definite, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(3), pages 703-08, May.
    10. Graham Elliott & Allan Timmermann & Ivana Komunjer, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(4), pages 1107-1125.
    11. Frankel, Jeffrey, 2011. "Monetary Policy in Emerging Markets: A Survey," Working Paper Series rwp11-003, Harvard University, John F. Kennedy School of Government.
    12. Goncalves, Carlos Eduardo S. & Salles, Joao M., 2008. "Inflation targeting in emerging economies: What do the data say?," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(1-2), pages 312-318, February.
    13. Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2004. "A note on the effects of monetary policy surprises on the Brazilian term structure of interest rates," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 283-287, April.
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