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The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany

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  • Kronenberg, Tobias

Abstract

This paper estimates the impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Since old people display different consumption patterns than young people, an increase in the proportion of old people affects overall consumption patterns. Micro data from a household survey are used to identify age-specific consumption patterns and to project the impact of demographic change on the structure of total consumption expenditure up to the year 2030. The resulting final demand vectors are entered into an environmental input-output model, which allows the calculation of sectoral production, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The model results suggest that until 2030, demographic change raises the share of methane in total greenhouse gas emissions and does not contribute to reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. The model is also used to explore the effects of redistributing income between age groups and a policy-induced switch from motor vehicle use to public transport.

Suggested Citation

  • Kronenberg, Tobias, 2009. "The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2637-2645, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:68:y:2009:i:10:p:2637-2645
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    Cited by:

    1. Anderson, Blake & M'Gonigle, Michael, 2012. "Does ecological economics have a future?," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C), pages 37-48.
    2. Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung Halle (Ed.), 2012. "Neuere Anwendungsfelder der Input-Output-Analyse. Tagungsband: Beiträge zum Halleschen Input-Output-Workshop 2010," IWH-Sonderhefte 1/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    3. repec:gam:jsusta:v:9:y:2017:i:9:p:1534-:d:110253 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Yosuke Shigetomi & Keisuke Nansai & Shigemi Kagawa & Susumu Tohno, 2016. "Influence of income difference on carbon and material footprints for critical metals: the case of Japanese households," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Garau, Giorgio & Lecca, Patrizio & Mandras, Giovanni, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on energy use: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 970-980.
    6. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic impacts of ageing: an inter-industry approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 37(12), pages 970-986, October.
    7. Yosuke Shigetomi & Keisuke Nansai & Shigemi Kagawa & Susumu Tohno, 2016. "Influence of income difference on carbon and material footprints for critical metals: the case of Japanese households," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 5(1), pages 1-19, December.
    8. Hamza, Neveen & Gilroy, Rose, 2011. "The challenge to UK energy policy: An ageing population perspective on energy saving measures and consumption," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 782-789, February.
    9. Kronenberg, Tobias, 2010. "Dematerialisation of consumption: a win-win strategy?," MPRA Paper 25704, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Heesen, Florian & Madlener, Reinhard, 2016. "Technology Acceptance as Part of the Energy Performance Gap in Energy-Efficient Retrofitted Dwellings," FCN Working Papers 25/2014, E.ON Energy Research Center, Future Energy Consumer Needs and Behavior (FCN).
    11. Shigetomi, Yosuke & Nansai, Keisuke & Kagawa, Shigemi & Tohno, Susumu, 2015. "Trends in Japanese households' critical-metals material footprints," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 118-126.
    12. Toru Ota & Makoto Kakinaka & Koji Kotani, 2017. "Demographic effects on residential electricity and city gas consumption in aging society of Japan," Working Papers SDES-2017-7, Kochi University of Technology, School of Economics and Management, revised Jun 2017.
    13. Kim, Dongha & Jeong, Jinook, 2016. "Electricity restructuring, greenhouse gas emissions efficiency and employment reallocation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 468-476.
    14. Schwärzler, Marion Cornelia & Kronenberg, Tobias, 2017. "Methodology of the Multiregional Health Account for Germany - An Iterative Algorithm-Based Multiregionalization Approach of Supply and Use Tables with Emphasis on Health," MPRA Paper 80712, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Gahramanov Emin, 2016. "On the Demographics and the Severity of the Social Security Crisis," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 16(2), pages 1001-1028, April.

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