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The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany

  • Kronenberg, Tobias

This paper estimates the impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. Since old people display different consumption patterns than young people, an increase in the proportion of old people affects overall consumption patterns. Micro data from a household survey are used to identify age-specific consumption patterns and to project the impact of demographic change on the structure of total consumption expenditure up to the year 2030. The resulting final demand vectors are entered into an environmental input-output model, which allows the calculation of sectoral production, energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. The model results suggest that until 2030, demographic change raises the share of methane in total greenhouse gas emissions and does not contribute to reducing energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany. The model is also used to explore the effects of redistributing income between age groups and a policy-induced switch from motor vehicle use to public transport.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Ecological Economics.

Volume (Year): 68 (2009)
Issue (Month): 10 (August)
Pages: 2637-2645

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:68:y:2009:i:10:p:2637-2645
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolecon

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  1. Heijdra, Ben J. & Romp, Ward E., 2009. "Human capital formation and macroeconomic performance in an ageing small open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 725-744, March.
  2. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  3. Dalton, Michael & O'Neill, Brian & Prskawetz, Alexia & Jiang, Leiwen & Pitkin, John, 2008. "Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 642-675, March.
  4. Butnar, Isabela & Llop, Maria, 2007. "Composition of greenhouse gas emissions in Spain: An input-output analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2-3), pages 388-395, March.
  5. Kühntopf, Stephan & Tivig, Thusnelda, 2008. "Vorausberechnung der Anzahl und Struktur privater Haushalte in Deutschland, Hamburg und Mecklenburg-Vorpommern bis 2030," Thuenen-Series of Applied Economic Theory 92, University of Rostock, Institute of Economics.
  6. Lixon, Benoit & Thomassin, Paul J. & Hamaide, Bertrand, 2008. "Industrial output restriction and the Kyoto protocol: An input-output approach with application to Canada," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1-2), pages 249-258, December.
  7. World Bank, 2006. "World Development Indicators 2006," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 8151, November.
  8. Llop, Maria, 2007. "Economic structure and pollution intensity within the environmental input-output framework," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 3410-3417, June.
  9. Hermann Buslei & Erika Schulz & Viktor Steiner, 2007. "Auswirkungen des demographischen Wandels auf die private Nachfrage nach Gütern und Dienstleistungen in Deutschland bis 2050," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 26, number pbk26.
  10. J.H.L. Dewhurst, 2006. "Estimating The Effect Of Projected Household Composition Change On Production In Scotland," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
  11. Kurt Kratena, 2007. "From Ecological Footprint to Ecological Rent: An Economic Indicator for Resource Constraints," WIFO Working Papers 292, WIFO.
  12. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
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