IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ags/pugtwp/332970.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Demographic Changes and its Impacts on Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil: a computable general equilibrium model approach

Author

Listed:
  • Sabadini Carvalho, Terciane
  • Santiago, Flaviane
  • Perobelli, Fernando

Abstract

In recent years, the debate on issues related to demographic changes and their impacts on the economy has increased. However, demographic changes affect not only variables such as economic growth and the labor market, but also aggregate consumption, and especially the composition of this consumption. These changes in population composition may occur in the coming decades in many parts of the globe, and their effects on the composition of consumption, notably on energy demand and emissions are not yet known. In this context, this article aims to estimate the changes in the pattern of consumption in Brazil due to the changes projected in the age pyramid in 2050 and the consequences of these changes on CO2 emissions. For this, projections will be made using a recursive dynamic computable general equilibrium model (CGE) considering 65 sectors and 7 age groups for the Brazilian economy. The results suggest that the change in age structure seem to lead to an emissions less intensive consumption pattern, around 0.25% (accumulated deviation relative to baseline) in 2050.

Suggested Citation

  • Sabadini Carvalho, Terciane & Santiago, Flaviane & Perobelli, Fernando, 2018. "Demographic Changes and its Impacts on Consumption and Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Brazil: a computable general equilibrium model approach," Conference papers 332970, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332970
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/332970/files/8948.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kronenberg, Tobias, 2009. "The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2637-2645, August.
    2. Dalton, Michael & O'Neill, Brian & Prskawetz, Alexia & Jiang, Leiwen & Pitkin, John, 2008. "Population aging and future carbon emissions in the United States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 642-675, March.
    3. Bin, Shui & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2005. "Consumer lifestyle approach to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 197-208, January.
    4. Geoffrey Hewings & Seryoung Park, 2007. "Aging and the Regional Economy: Simulation Results from the Chicago CGE Model," EcoMod2007 23900037, EcoMod.
    5. J.H.L. Dewhurst, 2006. "Estimating The Effect Of Projected Household Composition Change On Production In Scotland," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 186, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    6. Matthew A. Cole & Eric Neumayer, 2003. "Examining the Impact of Demographic Factors On Air Pollution," Labor and Demography 0312005, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 May 2004.
    7. Fougere, Maxime & Mercenier, Jean & Merette, Marcel, 2007. "A sectoral and occupational analysis of population ageing in Canada using a dynamic CGE overlapping generations model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 690-711, July.
    8. Bin, Shui & Dowlatabadi, Hadi, 2005. "Corrigendum to "Consumer lifestyles approach to US energy use and the related CO2 emissions": [Energy Policy 33 (2005) 197-208]," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1362-1363, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Underwood, Anthony & Zahran, Sammy, 2015. "The carbon implications of declining household scale economies," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 182-190.
    2. Kronenberg, Tobias, 2009. "The impact of demographic change on energy use and greenhouse gas emissions in Germany," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2637-2645, August.
    3. Ramachandra, T.V. & Bajpai, Vishnu & Kulkarni, Gouri & Aithal, Bharath H. & Han, Sun Sheng, 2017. "Economic disparity and CO2 emissions: The domestic energy sector in Greater Bangalore, India," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 1331-1344.
    4. Yu, Miao & Meng, Bo & Li, Rong, 2022. "Analysis of China's urban household indirect carbon emissions drivers under the background of population aging," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 114-125.
    5. Zhang, Chuanguo & Tan, Zheng, 2016. "The relationships between population factors and China's carbon emissions: Does population aging matter?," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 1018-1025.
    6. Ying Long & Jiahao Feng & Aolong Sun & Rui Wang & Yafei Wang, 2023. "Structural Characteristics of the Household Carbon Footprint in an Aging Society," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(17), pages 1-18, August.
    7. Paula C. Albuquerque & João C. Lopes, 2010. "Economic impacts of ageing: an inter‐industry approach," International Journal of Social Economics, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(12), pages 970-986, October.
    8. Jaehyeok Kim & Minwoo Jang & Donghyun Shin, 2019. "Examining the Role of Population Age Structure upon Residential Electricity Demand: A Case from Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(14), pages 1-19, July.
    9. Ethan Sharygin, 2013. "The Carbon Cost of an Educated Future: A Consumer Lifestyle Approach," VID Working Papers 1304, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    10. Zhuoqun Li & Haohao Li & Xueqiang Ji & Yuesong Zhang, 2025. "Shaping a low-carbon future: Uncovering the spatial-temporal effect of population aging on carbon emissions in China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 20(1), pages 1-29, January.
    11. Emilio Zagheni, 2011. "The Leverage of Demographic Dynamics on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: Does Age Structure Matter?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(1), pages 371-399, February.
    12. Xibao Xu & Yan Tan & Shuang Chen & Guishan Yang & Weizhong Su, 2015. "Urban Household Carbon Emission and Contributing Factors in the Yangtze River Delta, China," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, April.
    13. Kim, Euijune & Hewings, Geoffrey J.D. & Lee, Changkeun, 2016. "Impact of educational investments on economic losses from population ageing using an interregional CGE-population model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 126-138.
    14. Garau, Giorgio & Lecca, Patrizio & Mandras, Giovanni, 2013. "The impact of population ageing on energy use: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 970-980.
    15. Hongwu Zhang & Lequan Zhang & Keying Wang & Xunpeng Shi, 2019. "Unveiling Key Drivers of Indirect Carbon Emissions of Chinese Older Households," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(20), pages 1-17, October.
    16. Xinkuo Xu & Liyan Han, 2017. "Diverse Effects of Consumer Credit on Household Carbon Emissions at Quantiles: Evidence from Urban China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(9), pages 1-25, September.
    17. Li, Kunming & Fang, Liting & He, Lerong, 2019. "How population and energy price affect China's environmental pollution?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 129(C), pages 386-396.
    18. Thøgersen, John, 2017. "Housing-related lifestyle and energy saving: A multi-level approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 73-87.
    19. Liu, Lan-Cui & Wu, Gang, 2013. "Relating five bounded environmental problems to China's household consumption in 2011–2015," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 427-433.
    20. Guiying Cao & Junlian Gao & Ming Ren & Tatiana Ermolieva & Xiangyang Xu & Elena Rovenskaya, 2017. "Societal Dimension of Energy Consumption ¨C Exploring Environmental Inequality in China," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 8(2), pages 66-77, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332970. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: AgEcon Search (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/gtpurus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.