IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v79y2025ics1062940825000877.html

Common risk factors in REIT Returns: New insights

Author

Listed:
  • Coën, Alain
  • Guardiola, Philippe

Abstract

The aim of this article is to shed new light on the analysis of real estate investment trust (REIT) returns. To improve the contribution of standard asset pricing models, we develop and suggest the use of potential common factors related to REITs specific risk exposure: leverage, cash flow volatility and investment growth. We group REITs into portfolios based on their market capitalizations, book-to-market ratios, and loan-to-value ratios. Using unconditional and conditional asset pricing models, our results show that the leverage factor is a key risk factor in REIT returns. This conclusion remains when other REITs risk factors are considered, including the Fama and French factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Coën, Alain & Guardiola, Philippe, 2025. "Common risk factors in REIT Returns: New insights," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:79:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825000877
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2025.102447
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940825000877
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2025.102447?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bradford Case & Yawei Yang & Yildiray Yildirim, 2012. "Dynamic Correlations Among Asset Classes: REIT and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 298-318, April.
    2. Huang, Alan Guoming, 2009. "The cross section of cashflow volatility and expected stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 409-429, June.
    3. Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1992. "The Cross-Section of Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 47(2), pages 427-465, June.
    4. Carmichael, Benoît & Coën, Alain, 2008. "Asset pricing models with errors-in-variables," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 778-788, September.
    5. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-1054, July.
    6. Don Bredin & Gerard O’Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary Shocks and REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 315-331, October.
    7. Timothy Erickson & Toni M. Whited, 2010. "Erratum: Measurement Error and the Relationship between Investment and q," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(6), pages 1252-1257.
    8. Kuang-Liang Chang & Nan-Kuang Chen & Charles Leung, 2011. "Monetary Policy, Term Structure and Asset Return: Comparing REIT, Housing and Stock," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 221-257, July.
    9. Ping Cheng & Stephen E. Roulac, 2007. "REIT Characteristics and Predictability," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 10(2), pages 23-41.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:43:y:1988:i:3:p:661-76 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Dennis R. Capozza & Paul J. Seguin, 1999. "Focus, Transparency and Value: The REIT Evidence," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 587-619, December.
    12. Ling T. He, & James. R. Webb & Neil Myer, 2003. "Interest Rate Sensitivities of REIT Returns," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21.
    13. Shaun A. Bond & G. Andrew Karolyi & Anthony B. Sanders, 2003. "International Real Estate Returns: A Multifactor, Multicountry Approach," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 31(3), pages 481-500, September.
    14. Campbell, John & Shiller, Robert, 1988. "Stock Prices, Earnings, and Expected Dividends," Scholarly Articles 3224293, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    15. Kewei Hou & Chen Xue & Lu Zhang, 2015. "Editor's Choice Digesting Anomalies: An Investment Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(3), pages 650-705.
    16. Jamie Alcock & Eva Steiner, 2018. "Fundamental Drivers of Dependence in REIT Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 4-42, July.
    17. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2015. "A five-factor asset pricing model," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 1-22.
    18. Benoît Carmichael & Alain Coën, 2018. "Real Estate and Consumption Growth as Common Risk Factors in Asset Pricing Models," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(4), pages 936-970, December.
    19. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-341.
    20. Stone, Bernell K., 1974. "Systematic Interest-Rate Risk in a Two-Index Model of Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(5), pages 709-721, November.
    21. Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Common risk factors of infrastructure investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 257-273.
    22. Tobias Adrian & Evan Friedman & Tyler Muir, 2015. "The cost of capital of the financial sector," Staff Reports 755, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    23. Roger G. Ibbotson & Laurence B. Siegel, 1984. "Real Estate Returns: A Comparison with Other Investments," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 12(3), pages 219-242, September.
    24. Glenn R. Mueller & Keith R. Pauley, 1995. "The Effect of Interest-Rate Movements on Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 10(3), pages 319-326.
    25. Hansen, Lars Peter & Jagannathan, Ravi, 1997. "Assessing Specification Errors in Stochastic Discount Factor Models," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 557-590, June.
    26. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
    27. Emanuela Giacomini & David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2017. "REIT Leverage and Return Performance: Keep Your Eye on the Target," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(4), pages 930-978, December.
    28. Raymond Kan & Cesare Robotti, 2009. "Model Comparison Using the Hansen-Jagannathan Distance," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(9), pages 3449-3490, September.
    29. Richard Graff & Michael Young, 1997. "Serial Persistence in Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 183-214, January.
    30. Yuichiro Kawaguchi & Jarjisu Sa-Aadu & James D. Shilling, 2017. "REIT Stock Price Volatility and the Effects of Leverage," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 45(2), pages 452-477, April.
    31. Eli Beracha & Zifeng Feng & William G. Hardin, 2019. "REIT Operational Efficiency: Performance, Risk, and Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 58(3), pages 408-437, April.
    32. Glascock, John L & Lu, Chiuling & So, Raymond W, 2000. "Further Evidence on the Integration of REIT, Bond, and Stock Returns," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 177-194, March.
    33. Dagenais, Marcel G. & Dagenais, Denyse L., 1997. "Higher moment estimators for linear regression models with errors in the variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 76(1-2), pages 193-221.
    34. Gibbons, Michael R & Ross, Stephen A & Shanken, Jay, 1989. "A Test of the Efficiency of a Given Portfolio," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(5), pages 1121-1152, September.
    35. Liu, Crocker H. & Hartzell, David J. & Greig, Wylie & Grissom, Terry V., 1990. "The Integration of the Real Estate Market and the Stock Market: Some Preliminary Evidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 3(3), pages 261-282, September.
    36. Arthur Lewbel, 2007. "Estimation of Average Treatment Effects with Misclassification," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 75(2), pages 537-551, March.
    37. Jerry Hausman, 2015. "Specification tests in econometrics," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 38(2), pages 112-134.
    38. Ferson, Wayne E & Harvey, Campbell R, 1991. "The Variation of Economic Risk Premiums," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 385-415, April.
    39. John G. Cragg, 1994. "Making Good Inferences from Bad Data," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 27(4), pages 776-800, November.
    40. Richard A. Graff & Michael S. Young, 1997. "Serial Persistence in Equity REIT Returns," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 14(3), pages 183-214.
    41. David C. Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2015. "Returns and Information Transmission Dynamics in Public and Private Real Estate Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 163-208, March.
    42. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. "On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
    43. Ming-Long Lee & Ming-Te Lee & Kevin Chiang, 2008. "Real Estate Risk Exposure of Equity Real Estate Investment Trusts," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 36(2), pages 165-181, February.
    44. Brian A. Ciochetti & Timothy M. Craft & James D. Shilling, 2002. "Institutional Investors’ Preferences for REIT Stocks," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 30(4), pages 567-593.
    45. Emanuela Giacomini & David Ling & Andy Naranjo, 2015. "Leverage and Returns: A Cross-Country Analysis of Public Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 125-159, August.
    46. Thomas E. McCue & John L. Kling, 1994. "Real Estate Returns and the Macroeconomy: Some Empirical Evidence from Real Estate Investment Trust," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 9(3), pages 277-288.
    47. Hanno Lustig & Nikolai Roussanov & Adrien Verdelhan, 2011. "Common Risk Factors in Currency Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3731-3777.
    48. David M. Geltner, 1993. "Estimating Market Values from Appraised Values without Assuming an Efficient Market," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 8(3), pages 325-346.
    49. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    50. Jim Clayton & Greg MacKinnon, 2001. "The Time-Varying Nature of the Link between REIT, Real Estate and Financial Asset Returns," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 7(1), pages 43-54, January.
    51. Ferson, Wayne E, 1990. "Are the Latent Variables in Time-Varying Expected Returns Compensation for Consumption Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 397-429, June.
    52. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    53. Joseph L. Pagliari & Kevin A. Scherer & Richard T. Monopoli, 2005. "Public Versus Private Real Estate Equities: A More Refined, Long-Term Comparison," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 33(1), pages 147-187, March.
    54. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    55. Donald W. K. Andrews, 1999. "Consistent Moment Selection Procedures for Generalized Method of Moments Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 543-564, May.
    56. Libo Sun & Sheridan D. Titman & Garry J. Twite, 2015. "REIT and Commercial Real Estate Returns: A Postmortem of the Financial Crisis," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 43(1), pages 8-36, March.
    57. Martin Hoesli & Kustrim Reka, 2013. "Volatility Spillovers, Comovements and Contagion in Securitized Real Estate Markets," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 47(1), pages 1-35, July.
    58. Donal Bredin & Gerard O'Reilly & Simon Stevenson, 2007. "Monetary shocks and REIT returns," Centre for Financial Markets Working Papers 10197/1187, Research Repository, University College Dublin.
    59. Benoît Carmichael & Alain Coën, 2019. "Securitized and Direct Real Estate Factors in the Pricing of US Bank Stocks," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 19(4), pages 893-907, December.
    60. Shaun Bond & Chen Xue, 2017. "The Cross Section of Expected Real Estate Returns: Insights from Investment-Based Asset Pricing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 403-428, April.
    61. Hodrick, Robert J. & Zhang, Xiaoyan, 2001. "Evaluating the specification errors of asset pricing models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 327-376, November.
    62. K. C. Chan & Patric H. Hendershott & Anthony B. Sanders, 1990. "Risk and Return on Real Estate: Evidence from Equity REITs," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(4), pages 431-452, December.
    63. William Fung & David A. Hsieh, 2004. "Hedge Fund Benchmarks: A Risk-Based Approach," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 60(5), pages 65-80, September.
    64. Daniel C. Quan & Sheridan Titman, 1997. "Commercial Real Estate Prices and Stock Market Returns: An International Analysis," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(3), pages 21-34, May.
    65. Viale, Ariel M. & Kolari, James W. & Fraser, Donald R., 2009. "Common risk factors in bank stocks," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 464-472, March.
    66. James D. Peterson & Cheng‐Ho Hsieh, 1997. "Do Common Risk Factors in the Returns on Stocks and Bonds Explain Returns on REITs?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 25(2), pages 321-345, June.
    67. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
    68. James Chong & Joëlle Miffre & Simon Stevenson, 2009. "Conditional Correlations and Real Estate Investment Trusts," Journal of Real Estate Portfolio Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 173-184, January.
    69. Stephen Foerster & John Tsagarelis & Grant Wang, 2017. "Are Cash Flows Better Stock Return Predictors Than Profits?," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 73(1), pages 73-99, January.
    70. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2019. "Why are REITS Currently So Expensive?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 47(1), pages 18-65, March.
    71. Pal, Manoranjan, 1980. "Consistent moment estimators of regression coefficients in the presence of errors in variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 349-364, December.
    72. Carmichael, Benoît & Coën, Alain, 2018. "Real estate as a common risk factor in bank stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 118-130.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Coën, Alain & Guardiola, Philippe, 2025. "Leverage risk and REIT returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    2. Coën, Alain & Desfleurs, Aurélie, 2024. "Geopolitical risk and the dynamics of REITs returns," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Carmichael, Benoît & Coën, Alain, 2018. "Real estate as a common risk factor in bank stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 118-130.
    4. Andrey Pavlov & Eva Steiner & Susan Wachter, 2018. "The Consequences of REIT Index Membership for Return Patterns," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 46(1), pages 210-250, March.
    5. Masud Alam, 2024. "Volatility in U.S. Housing Sector and the REIT Equity Return," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 505-544, October.
    6. Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin & Milidonis, Andreas, 2018. "The cross-section of expected stock returns in the property/liability insurance industry," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 292-321.
    7. Carmichael, Benoît & Coën, Alain, 2020. "Real estate as a common risk factor in the financial sector: International evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(C).
    8. Maio, Paulo & Santa-Clara, Pedro, 2012. "Multifactor models and their consistency with the ICAPM," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(3), pages 586-613.
    9. Ben Ammar, Semir & Eling, Martin, 2015. "Common risk factors of infrastructure investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 257-273.
    10. Massimo Guidolin & Manuela Pedio & Dimos Andronoudis, 2019. "How Smart is the Real Estate Smart Beta? Evidence from Optimal Style Factor Strategies for REITs," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 19117, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    11. Fan, Kwok Yuen & Shen, Jianfu & Hui, Eddie C.M. & Cheng, Louis T.W., 2024. "ESG components and equity returns: Evidence from real estate investment trusts," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 96(PB).
    12. Lu Zhang, 2017. "The Investment CAPM," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 23(4), pages 545-603, September.
    13. Vendrame, Vasco & Guermat, Cherif & Tucker, Jon, 2018. "A conditional regime switching CAPM," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-11.
    14. Amit Goyal, 2012. "Empirical cross-sectional asset pricing: a survey," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 26(1), pages 3-38, March.
    15. Patrick Gagliardini & Diego Ronchetti, 2020. "Comparing Asset Pricing Models by the Conditional Hansen-Jagannathan Distance," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 333-394.
    16. Flögel, Volker & Schlag, Christian & Zunft, Claudia, 2021. "Momentum-managed equity factors," SAFE Working Paper Series 317, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    17. Bryzgalova, Svetlana & Huang, Jiantao & Julliard, Christian, 2023. "Bayesian solutions for the factor zoo: we just ran two quadrillion models," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 126151, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    18. Sercan Demiralay & Erhan Kilincarslan, 2024. "Uncertainty Measures and Sector-Specific REITs in a Regime-Switching Environment," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 545-584, October.
    19. Dahlquist, Magnus & Odegaard, Bernt Arne, 2018. "A Review of Norges Bank's Active Management of the Government Pension Fund Global," UiS Working Papers in Economics and Finance 2018/1, University of Stavanger.
    20. Bai, Jennie & Bali, Turan G. & Wen, Quan, 2021. "Is there a risk-return tradeoff in the corporate bond market? Time-series and cross-sectional evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1017-1037.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • R3 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:79:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825000877. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.