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Are the Latent Variables in Time-Varying Expected Returns Compensation for Consumption Risk?

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  • Ferson, Wayne E

Abstract

Multibeta asset pricing models are examined using proxies for economic state variables in a framework that exploits time-varying expected returns to estimate conditional betas. Examples include multiple consumption-beta models and models where asset returns proxy for the state variables. When the state variables are not specified, the tests indicate two or three time-varying expected risk premiums in the sample of quarterly asset returns. Conditional betas relative to consumption generate less striking evidence against the model than betas relative to asset returns, but both the consumption and the market variables fail to proxy for the state variables. Copyright 1990 by American Finance Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Ferson, Wayne E, 1990. " Are the Latent Variables in Time-Varying Expected Returns Compensation for Consumption Risk?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 397-429, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:jfinan:v:45:y:1990:i:2:p:397-429
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    Cited by:

    1. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1997. "Fundamental determinants of national equity market returns: A perspective on conditional asset pricing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(11-12), pages 1625-1665, December.
    2. Harvey, Campbell R, 1995. "Predictable Risk and Returns in Emerging Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 8(3), pages 773-816.
    3. Ghysels, E., 1995. "On Stable Factor Structurs in the Pricing of Risk," Cahiers de recherche 9525, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    4. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2001. "Heterogeneity of Trade and Stock Returns. Evidence from Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm176, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2001.
    5. Li, Yuming, 1998. "Expected stock returns, risk premiums and volatilities of economic factors1," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 69-97, June.
    6. Campbell R. Harvey & Bruno Solnik & Guofu Zhou, 2002. "What Determines Expected International Asset Returns?," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 3(2), pages 249-298, November.
    7. João Sousa & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2011. "Asset Returns Under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from the euro area, the U.K. and the U.S," Working Papers w201119, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Elton, Edwin J. & Gruber, Martin J. & Mei, Jianping, 1996. "Return generating process and the determinants of term premiums," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(7), pages 1251-1269, August.
    9. Samson, Lucie, 2013. "Asset prices and exchange risk: Empirical evidence from Canada," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 35-44.
    10. Cenesizoglu, Tolga & Timmermann, Allan, 2012. "Do return prediction models add economic value?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2974-2987.
    11. repec:eee:intfin:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:204-218 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. K. J. Martijn Cremers, 2002. "Stock Return Predictability: A Bayesian Model Selection Perspective," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1223-1249.
    13. Lo, Andrew W & Wang, Jiang, 1995. " Implementing Option Pricing Models When Asset Returns Are Predictable," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 87-129, March.
    14. Lo, Andrew W. & Mackinlay, A. Craig, 1997. "Maximizing Predictability In The Stock And Bond Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 1(01), pages 102-134, January.
    15. John Campbell & Jianping Mei, 1993. "Where do Betas Come From? Asset Price Dynamics and the Sources of Systematic Risk," NBER Working Papers 4329, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Tien Foo Sing & Leiting Deng & Hong Wang, 2007. "Tests of common real estate risk premia in a time-varying expected return framework," Journal of Property Investment & Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 25(4), pages 359-369, July.
    17. Massimo Massa & William Goetzmann, 2001. "Dispersion of Opinion and Stock Returns: Evidence from Index Fund Investors," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm227, Yale School of Management, revised 01 May 2003.
    18. Sing Tien Foo & Loh Kok Weng, 2014. "Predictability of Shariah-Compliant Stock and Real Estate Investments," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(1), pages 23-46.
    19. Todd Prono, 2006. "GARCH-based identification of triangular systems with an application to the CAPM: still living with the roll critique," Working Papers 07-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    20. Javid, Attiya Yasmin, 2008. "Forecasting performance of capital asset pricing models in case of Pakistani market," MPRA Paper 37562, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Locarno, Alberto & Massa, Massimo, 2005. "Monetary Policy Uncertainty and the Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 4828, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    22. Ferson, Wayne E & Korajczyk, Robert A, 1995. "Do Arbitrage Pricing Models Explain the Predictability of Stock Returns?," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 309-349, July.
    23. B. Carmichael & L. Samson, 2003. "Expected returns and economic risk in Canadian financial markets," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(3), pages 177-189.

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