IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecofin/v77y2025ics1062940825000191.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Asymmetry and determinants of financial connectivity in G20: Evidence from a quantile-based and lasso regression analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Guangyi
  • Li, Yong
  • Liu, Xiaoxing

Abstract

As global financial markets become more integrated, the interconnected characteristics among these markets have become increasingly pronounced, making the network of interconnections among national financial markets a significant carrier of systemic financial risk contagion. Against the backdrop of frequent systemic financial risks, exploring the relationships among financial risks across countries in extreme market conditions holds substantial policy significance. To this end, this paper employs Lasso quantile regression to capture tail event linkages and explore the dependencies of tail events (TE) between Chinese macroeconomic conditions and major financial institutions (FI). Having verified the model’s capability in effectively predicting financial risks, a network of financial risk connectivity including China and G20 countries is established using the quantile-based TVP − VAR method. The research finds that, firstly, in extreme market conditions, the spillover effects of financial risks are significantly intensified. At this time, the spillover effects of financial risks from developed countries are significantly greater than those from developing countries. Secondly, there is significant asymmetry in financial risk spillovers among different countries, and the left-tail risk spillover effects are higher than the right-tail under various extreme market conditions, indicating that under negative economic or financial news, the speed and impact of risk propagation are wider. Thirdly, under extreme market conditions, the financial risk connectivity of G20 countries is primarily driven by information transmission mechanisms, mainly through capital flows and cross-border credit, whereas under normal market conditions, the transmission of financial risks among nations is mainly due to deeper structural changes within their financial markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Guangyi & Li, Yong & Liu, Xiaoxing, 2025. "Asymmetry and determinants of financial connectivity in G20: Evidence from a quantile-based and lasso regression analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825000191
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2025.102379
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1062940825000191
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.najef.2025.102379?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2021. "EMU risk-synchronisation and financial fragility through the prism of dynamic connectedness," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    2. Topcu, Mert & Gulal, Omer Serkan, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 on emerging stock markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 36(C).
    3. Chen, Yi-Pei & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chiang, Shu-Hen & Mo, Wan-Shin, 2023. "Determinants of connectedness in financial institutions: Evidence from Taiwan," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    4. Raddant, Matthias & Kenett, Dror Y., 2021. "Interconnectedness in the global financial market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    5. Viral V. Acharya & Lasse H. Pedersen & Thomas Philippon & Matthew Richardson, 2017. "Measuring Systemic Risk," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(1), pages 2-47.
    6. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    7. Wang, Yifan & You, Xiqi & Zhang, Yanhang & Yang, Hanfang, 2024. "Does the risk spillover in global financial markets intensify during major public health emergencies? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    8. Demir, Müge & Önder, Zeynep, 2019. "Financial connectivity and excessive liquidity: Benefit or risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 203-221.
    9. Matthew Elliott & Benjamin Golub & Matthew O. Jackson, 2014. "Financial Networks and Contagion," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3115-3153, October.
    10. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    11. Saeed, Tareq & Bouri, Elie & Alsulami, Hamed, 2021. "Extreme return connectedness and its determinants between clean/green and dirty energy investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    12. Mark Kritzman & Yuanzhen Li, 2010. "Skulls, Financial Turbulence, and Risk Management," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(5), pages 30-41, September.
    13. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2023. "Integration and risk transmission in the market for crude oil: New evidence from a time-varying parameter frequency connectedness approach," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    14. Feyen, Erik & Alonso Gispert, Tatiana & Kliatskova, Tatsiana & Mare, Davide S., 2021. "Financial Sector Policy Response to COVID-19 in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    15. Dendramis, Yiannis & Kapetanios, George & Tzavalis, Elias, 2015. "Shifts in volatility driven by large stock market shocks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 130-147.
    16. Zohair Alam & Adrian Alter & Jesse Eiseman & Gaston Gelos & Heedon Kang & Machiko Narita & Erlend Nier & Naixi Wang, 2025. "Digging Deeper—Evidence on the Effects of Macroprudential Policies from a New Database," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 57(5), pages 1135-1166, August.
    17. Graham, Michael & Peltomäki, Jarkko & Piljak, Vanja, 2016. "Global economic activity as an explicator of emerging market equity returns," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 424-435.
    18. Zhang, Weiping & Zhuang, Xintian & Lu, Yang, 2020. "Spatial spillover effects and risk contagion around G20 stock markets based on volatility network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    19. Peng, Wei, 2021. "The transmission of default risk between banks and countries based on CAViaR models," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 500-509.
    20. Balcilar, Mehmet & Elsayed, Ahmed H. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2023. "Financial connectedness and risk transmission among MENA countries: Evidence from connectedness network and clustering analysis1," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    21. Linda Allen & Turan G. Bali & Yi Tang, 2012. "Does Systemic Risk in the Financial Sector Predict Future Economic Downturns?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(10), pages 3000-3036.
    22. Sylvain Benoit & Jean-Edouard Colliard & Christophe Hurlin & Christophe Pérignon, 2017. "Where the Risks Lie: A Survey on Systemic Risk," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 21(1), pages 109-152.
    23. Gomez-Gonzalez, Jose E. & Hirs-Garzon, Jorge & Uribe, Jorge M., 2022. "Spillovers beyond the variance: Exploring the higher order risk linkages between commodity markets and global financial markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    24. Balla, Eliana & Ergen, Ibrahim & Migueis, Marco, 2014. "Tail dependence and indicators of systemic risk for large US depositories," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 195-209.
    25. Rashmi Chaudhary & Priti Bakhshi & Hemendra Gupta, 2020. "Volatility in International Stock Markets: An Empirical Study during COVID-19," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-17, September.
    26. Dai, Zhifeng & Zhang, Xiaotong & Yin, Zhujia, 2023. "Extreme time-varying spillovers between high carbon emission stocks, green bond and crude oil: Evidence from a quantile-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    27. Will Kinlaw & David Turkington, 2013. "Correlation surprise," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 14(6), pages 385-399, December.
    28. Cardarelli, Roberto & Elekdag, Selim & Lall, Subir, 2011. "Financial stress and economic contractions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 78-97, June.
    29. Chen, Jinyu & Liang, Zhipeng & Ding, Qian & Liu, Zhenhua, 2022. "Extreme spillovers among fossil energy, clean energy, and metals markets: Evidence from a quantile-based analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kanga, Désiré & Soumaré, Issouf & Amenounvé, Edoh, 2023. "Can corporate financing through the stock market create systemic risk? Evidence from the BRVM securities market," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Dai, Zhifeng & Tang, Rui & Zhang, Xinhua, 2023. "Multilayer network analysis for measuring the inter-connectedness between the oil market and G20 stock markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
    3. Shivani Narayan & Dilip Kumar, 2023. "Systemic Risk Transmission from the United States to Asian Economies During the COVID-19 Period," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 22(1), pages 57-84, March.
    4. Li, Yueshan & Chen, Shoudong & Sensoy, Ahmet & Wang, Lu, 2024. "Over-expected shocks and financial market security: Evidence from China's markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Zhongzheng, Wang, 2023. "Extreme risk transmission mechanism between oil, green bonds and new energy vehicles," Innovation and Green Development, Elsevier, vol. 2(3).
    6. Markus K. Brunnermeier & Patrick Cheridito, 2019. "Measuring and Allocating Systemic Risk," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-19, April.
    7. Cheng, Tingting & Liu, Fei & Liu, Junli & Yao, Wenying, 2024. "Tail connectedness: Measuring the volatility connectedness network of equity markets during crises," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    8. Narayan, Shivani & Kumar, Dilip, 2024. "Macroprudential policy and systemic risk in G20 nations," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    9. Spiros Bougheas & Adam Hal Spencer, 2022. "Fire sales and ex ante valuation of systemic risk: A financial equilibrium networks approach," Discussion Papers 2022/04, University of Nottingham, Centre for Finance, Credit and Macroeconomics (CFCM).
    10. Chen, Guojin & Liu, Yanzhen & Zhang, Yu, 2021. "Systemic risk measures and distribution forecasting of macroeconomic shocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 178-196.
    11. Jean-Baptiste Hasse, 2022. "Systemic risk: a network approach," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 313-344, July.
    12. Yun, Tae-Sub & Jeong, Deokjong & Park, Sunyoung, 2019. "“Too central to fail” systemic risk measure using PageRank algorithm," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 251-272.
    13. Armanious, Amir, 2024. "Too-systemic-to-fail: Empirical comparison of systemic risk measures in the Eurozone financial system," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    14. Pham, Thach N. & Powell, Robert & Bannigidadmath, Deepa, 2021. "Systemically important banks in Asian emerging markets: Evidence from four systemic risk measures," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Andrieş, Alin Marius & Ongena, Steven & Sprincean, Nicu & Tunaru, Radu, 2022. "Risk spillovers and interconnectedness between systemically important institutions," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    16. Peter Grundke, 2019. "Ranking consistency of systemic risk measures: a simulation-based analysis in a banking network model," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 953-990, May.
    17. Shi, Huai-Long & Chen, Huayi, 2025. "Quantile return connectedness of theme factors and portfolio implications: Evidence from the US and China," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    18. Cipollini, Fabrizio & Giannozzi, Alessandro & Menchetti, Fiammetta & Roggi, Oliviero, 2020. "The beauty contest between systemic and systematic risk measures: Assessing the empirical performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 316-332.
    19. Egger, Peter H. & Li, Jie & Zhu, Jiaqing, 2023. "The network and own effects of global-systemically-important-bank designations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    20. Ouyang, Ruolan & Pei, Tiancheng & Fang, Yi & Zhao, Yang, 2024. "Commodity systemic risk and macroeconomic predictions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:77:y:2025:i:c:s1062940825000191. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/620163 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.