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Modelling alternative student loan schemes for Brazil

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  • Dearden, Lorraine
  • Nascimento, Paulo Meyer

Abstract

This paper simulates student loan schemes for Brazil. A copula approach is applied to simulate dynamic earnings paths for graduates. Repayment patterns are then simulated for time-based and income-contingent loan designs. The results show that the Brazilian time-based scheme involved unsustainable repayment burdens for many graduates and contributed to the scheme's high default rates. We also show that the new income-contingent scheme is also likely to involve high taxpayer subsidies. We consider alternative designs with different strengths and weaknesses but favour an income-contingent scheme with a loan fee, repayment rates at 50% of current income tax rates and an interest rate at the government's cost of borrowing upon graduation and above initial tax threshold. We conclude by emphasising that full involvement of the federal revenue system is more desirable than the present approach of employer withholding. This would increase the earnings base and reduce costs, which is important for Brazil's current precarious fiscal situation.

Suggested Citation

  • Dearden, Lorraine & Nascimento, Paulo Meyer, 2019. "Modelling alternative student loan schemes for Brazil," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 83-94.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecoedu:v:71:y:2019:i:c:p:83-94
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econedurev.2018.11.005
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Fernando J. Cardim de Carvalho, 2017. "Brazil Still in Troubled Waters," Economics Public Policy Brief Archive ppb_143, Levy Economics Institute.
    2. Britton, Jack & van der Erve, Laura & Higgins, Tim, 2019. "Income contingent student loan design: Lessons from around the world," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 65-82.
    3. George Psacharopoulos & Harry Anthony Patrinos, 2004. "Returns to investment in education: a further update," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(2), pages 111-134.
    4. Dearden, Lorraine, 2019. "Evaluating and designing student loan systems: An overview of empirical approaches," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 49-64.
    5. Chapman, Bruce & Lounkaew, Kiatanantha, 2015. "An analysis of Stafford loan repayment burdens," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 89-102.
    6. Higgins, Tim & Sinning, Mathias, 2013. "Modeling income dynamics for public policy design: An application to income contingent student loans," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 273-285.
    7. Barr, Nicholas & Chapman, Bruce & Dearden, Lorraine & Dynarski, Susan, 2019. "The US college loans system: Lessons from Australia and England," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 32-48.
    8. Chapman, Bruce & Doris, Aedín, 2019. "Modelling higher education financing reform for Ireland," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 109-119.
    9. Cai, Yu & Chapman, Bruce & Wang, Qing, 2019. "Repayment burdens of mortgage-style student loans in China and steps toward income-contingent loans," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 95-108.
    10. Philip Oreopoulos & Uros Petronijevic, 2013. "Making College Worth It: A Review of Research on the Returns to Higher Education," NBER Working Papers 19053, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Student loans; Taxpayer subsidies; Repayment burdens; Time-based repayment loans; Income contingent loans; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    • I22 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Educational Finance; Financial Aid
    • I28 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Government Policy
    • H81 - Public Economics - - Miscellaneous Issues - - - Governmental Loans; Loan Guarantees; Credits; Grants; Bailouts
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education

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