IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v35y2013icp453-463.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Australian labor market dynamics across the ages

Author

Listed:
  • Ponomareva, Natalia
  • Sheen, Jeffrey

Abstract

Transition probabilities between four labor market states (full-time employment, part-time employment, unemployment and inactive) for three age groups (the young, mature and old) are calculated using monthly gross flow data for Australia from October 1997 to May 2012. We determine the responses of the different groups to phases of the business cycle by estimating four unobserved common dynamic factors that drive the age group transitions. Job-finding and job-losing factors were significantly affected by the business cycle variable. Impulse responses to a business cycle shock show that both job-finding and job-losing matter, with the former more important. Part-time job flow responses are more important cyclically than full-time ones. In business cycle downturns, the young have a disproportionate difficulty finding and keeping all jobs, the mature unemployed have more difficulty finding full-time work, and the old have difficulty keeping full-time work.

Suggested Citation

  • Ponomareva, Natalia & Sheen, Jeffrey, 2013. "Australian labor market dynamics across the ages," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 453-463.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:453-463
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.07.038
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999313003131
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2013.07.038?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Labour market flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
    2. Robert E. Hall, 2006. "Job Loss, Job Finding and Unemployment in the US Economy over the Past Fifty Years," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2005, Volume 20, pages 101-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Patrick D’Arcy & Linus Gustafsson & Christine Lewis & Trent Wiltshire, 2012. "Labour Market Turnover and Mobility," RBA Bulletin (Print copy discontinued), Reserve Bank of Australia, pages 1-12, December.
    4. Barbara Petrongolo & Christopher A. Pissarides, 2008. "The Ins and Outs of European Unemployment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 256-262, May.
    5. Gary Solon & Ryan Michaels & Michael W. L. Elsby, 2009. "The Ins and Outs of Cyclical Unemployment," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 1(1), pages 84-110, January.
    6. Shigeru Fujita & Garey Ramey, 2009. "The Cyclicality Of Separation And Job Finding Rates," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 415-430, May.
    7. Burgess, Simon & Turon, Helene, 2000. "Unemployment dynamics, duration and equilibrium: evidence from Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20162, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    8. Michael W. L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Ayşegül Şahin, 2013. "Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 530-548, May.
    9. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
    10. Jeff Borland, 1996. "Labour Market Flows Data for Australia," Australian Economic Review, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, vol. 29(2), pages 225-235, April.
    11. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark, 2011. "Dynamic Factor Models," Scholarly Articles 28469541, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    12. Jerome Fahrer & Alexandra Heath, 1992. "The Evolution of Employment and Unemployment in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9215, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    13. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    14. Abowd, John M & Zellner, Arnold, 1985. "Estimating Gross Labor-Force Flows," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 3(3), pages 254-283, June.
    15. Natalia Ponomareva & Jeffrey Sheen, 2010. "Cyclical Flows in Australian Labour Markets," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(s1), pages 35-48, September.
    16. Poterba, James M & Summers, Lawrence H, 1986. "Reporting Errors and Labor Market Dynamics," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1319-1338, November.
    17. Steven J. Davis & John Haltiwanger, 1992. "Gross Job Creation, Gross Job Destruction, and Employment Reallocation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(3), pages 819-863.
    18. Chew Lian Chua & Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim, 2007. "What Drives Worker Flows?," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2007n34, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    19. Oliver Jean Blanchard & Peter Diamond, 1990. "The Cyclical Behovior of the Gross Flows of U.S. Workers," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 21(2), pages 85-156.
    20. Simon Burgess & Hélène Turon, 2005. "Unemployment dynamics in Britain," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 115(503), pages 423-448, April.
    21. Junankar, P.N. & Kapuscinski, C.A., 1990. "The Duration Of Unemployment In Australia: Memory And Measurement," CEPR Discussion Papers 238, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
    22. Ekkehard Ernst & Uma Rani, 2011. "Understanding unemployment flows," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 27(2), pages 268-294.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Regina T. Riphahn & Rebecca Schrader, 2017. "Measuring the cyclicality of labour market flows using individual transitions," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(9), pages 643-647, May.
    2. Andrew Evans, 2018. "Okun coefficients and participation coefficients by age and gender," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Lin, Ching-Yang & Miyamoto, Hiroaki, 2012. "Gross worker flows and unemployment dynamics in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 44-61.
    2. Simmons, Michael, 2023. "Job-to-job transitions, job finding and the ins of unemployment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Robert Dixon & G. C. Lim & Jan C. van Ours, 2015. "The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(24), pages 2523-2539, May.
    4. Gomes, Pedro, 2012. "Labour market flows: Facts from the United Kingdom," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 165-175.
    5. Silva, José I. & Vázquez-Grenno, Javier, 2013. "The ins and outs of unemployment in a two-tier labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 161-169.
    6. Elsby, Michael W.L. & Hobijn, Bart & Şahin, Ayşegül, 2015. "On the importance of the participation margin for labor market fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 64-82.
    7. Jennifer C. Smith, 2011. "The Ins and Outs of UK Unemployment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 402-444, May.
    8. Rogerson, Richard & Shimer, Robert, 2011. "Search in Macroeconomic Models of the Labor Market," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 7, pages Pages: 61, Elsevier.
    9. Borowczyk-Martins, Daniel & Lalé, Etienne, 2020. "The ins and outs of involuntary part-time employment," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    10. Silva, José I. & Vázquez-Grenno, Javier, 2013. "The ins and outs of unemployment in a two-tier labor market," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 161-169.
    11. Razzu, Giovanni & Singleton, Carl, 2016. "Gender and the business cycle: An analysis of labour markets in the US and UK," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 47(PB), pages 131-146.
    12. Takano, Tetsuaki, 2024. "Worker flows by gender and industry in Japan," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    13. Hairault, Jean-Olivier & Le Barbanchon, Thomas & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2015. "The cyclicality of the separation and job finding rates in France," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 60-84.
    14. Jósef Sigurdsson, 2011. "Unemployment Dynamics and Cyclical Fluctuations in the Icelandic Labour Market," Economics wp56, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    15. Marianna Kudlyak & Felipe Schwartzman, 2012. "Accounting for unemployment in the Great Recession : nonparticipation matters," Working Paper 12-04, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    16. Pedro Gomes, 2015. "The importance of frequency in estimating labour market transition rates," IZA Journal of Labor Economics, Springer;Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 4(1), pages 1-10, December.
    17. Portugal, Pedro & Rua, António, 2020. "How the ins and outs shape differently the U.S. unemployment over time and across frequencies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    18. Ajax Moreira & Miguel N. Foguel & Carlos Henrique Corseuil, 2021. "The ins and outs of unemployment over different time horizons," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2533-2556, May.
    19. Shibata, Ippei, 2022. "Reassessing classification errors in the analysis of labor market dynamics," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    20. Nordmeier, Daniela, 2012. "Worker flows in Germany: Inspecting the time aggregation bias," IAB-Discussion Paper 201212, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Labor market flows; Age groups; Unemployment; Transition probabilities; Business cycles; Dynamic factor model; Impulse responses;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • C38 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Classification Methdos; Cluster Analysis; Principal Components; Factor Analysis

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:35:y:2013:i:c:p:453-463. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.