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Supply-side effects of exchange rates, exchange rate expectations and induced currency depreciation

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  • Ali, Syed Zahid
  • Anwar, Sajid

Abstract

Within the context of a small open economy model, this paper examines the repercussions of induced currency depreciation. The results presented in this paper are based on a model with firm microeconomic foundations and which takes into account both the supply and demand-side effects of exchange rate variations. The distinguishing feature of the model is the role of exchange rate expectations. We consider three kinds of expectations; adaptive, extrapolative, and regressive expectations. We also perform several sensitivity tests based on these expectations. Our simulation exercise shows that the effect of induced currency depreciation depends largely on supply-side effects. In most cases, we find that currency depreciation results in (i) a fall in output, (ii) an increase in prices and (iii) an improvement in the balance of trade. In the absence of weak supply-side effects of exchange rates, we find that, if the Marshall-Lerner conditions hold, then depreciation of the home currency has a favorable effect on output but its effect on the balance of trade is negative.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999311000356
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 1650-1672

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:1650-1672
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

Keywords: Currency exchange rates Balance of payments Exchange rate expectations;

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Cited by:

  1. Ali, Syed Zahid & Anwar, Sajid & Valadkhani, Abbas, 2012. "Macroeconomic consequences of increased productivity in less developed economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 621-631.
  2. Mihaela IAVORSCHI, 2015. "The Impact Of The Exchange Rate On The Commercials Flows," SEA - Practical Application of Science, Fundația Română pentru Inteligența Afacerii, Editorial Department, issue 7, pages 301-308, April.

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