IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

Supply-side effects of exchange rates, exchange rate expectations and induced currency depreciation

  • Ali, Syed Zahid
  • Anwar, Sajid

Within the context of a small open economy model, this paper examines the repercussions of induced currency depreciation. The results presented in this paper are based on a model with firm microeconomic foundations and which takes into account both the supply and demand-side effects of exchange rate variations. The distinguishing feature of the model is the role of exchange rate expectations. We consider three kinds of expectations; adaptive, extrapolative, and regressive expectations. We also perform several sensitivity tests based on these expectations. Our simulation exercise shows that the effect of induced currency depreciation depends largely on supply-side effects. In most cases, we find that currency depreciation results in (i) a fall in output, (ii) an increase in prices and (iii) an improvement in the balance of trade. In the absence of weak supply-side effects of exchange rates, we find that, if the Marshall-Lerner conditions hold, then depreciation of the home currency has a favorable effect on output but its effect on the balance of trade is negative.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999311000356
Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.

Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economic Modelling.

Volume (Year): 28 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (July)
Pages: 1650-1672

as
in new window

Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:1650-1672
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Roberto Frenkel & Martin Rapetti, 2010. "A Concise History of Exchange Rate Regimes in Latin America," UMASS Amherst Economics Working Papers 2010-01, University of Massachusetts Amherst, Department of Economics.
  2. Frankel, Jeff & Froot, Ken, 1986. "Using Survey Data to Test Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt1972q8wm, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
  3. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient rules for monetary policy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series G97/3, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  4. Jordi Gali & Tommaso Monacelli, 2002. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," NBER Working Papers 8905, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Jeffrey Frankel and Kenneth Froot., 1991. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Techniques, Survey Data, and Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," Economics Working Papers 91-158, University of California at Berkeley.
  6. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
  8. Shleifer, Andrei & Mullainathan, Sendhil & Schwartzstein, Joshua, 2008. "Coarse Thinking and Persuasion," Scholarly Articles 11022284, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  9. Stanley Fischer, 2001. "Exchange Rate Regimes: Is the Bipolar View Correct?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 3-24, Spring.
  10. Marey Philip S., 2004. "Uncovered interest parity tests and exchange rate expectations," Research Memorandum 021, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  11. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Froyen, Richard & Guender, Alfred, 2000. "Alternative Monetary Policy Rules for Small Open Economies," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 8(4), pages 721-40, November.
  13. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Froot, Kenneth A., 1987. "Short-term and long-term expectations of the yen/dollar exchange rate: Evidence from survey data," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 1(3), pages 249-274, September.
  14. Jean-Paul Lam, 2003. "Alternative Targeting Regimes, Transmission Lags, and the Exchange Rate Channel," Working Papers 03-39, Bank of Canada.
  15. Barry Eichengreen & Ricardo Hausmann, 1999. "Exchange rates and financial fragility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 329-368.
  16. Cavaglia, Stefano & Verschoor, Willem F. C. & Wolff, Christian C. P., 1993. "Further evidence on exchange rate expectations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 78-98, February.
  17. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Kenneth A. Froot, 1985. "Using Survey Data to Test Some Standard Propositions Regarding Exchange Rate Expectations," NBER Working Papers 1672, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Lawrence H. Summers, 2000. "International Financial Crises: Causes, Prevention, and Cures," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 1-16, May.
  19. Menzie D. Chinn & Guy Meredith, 2005. "Testing Uncovered Interest Parity at Short and Long Horizons during the Post-Bretton Woods Era," NBER Working Papers 11077, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1999. "No Single Currency Regime is Right for All Countries or At All Times," NBER Working Papers 7338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. John Williamson, 2000. "Exchange Rate Regimes for Emerging Markets: Reviving the Intermediate Option," Peterson Institute Press: Policy Analyses in International Economics, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number pa60, 03.
  22. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  23. Marey, Philip S., 2004. "Exchange rate expectations: controlled experiments with artificial traders," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 283-304, March.
  24. Leitemo, Kai & Soderstrom, Ulf, 2005. "Simple monetary policy rules and exchange rate uncertainty," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 481-507, April.
  25. Ivrendi, Mehmet & Guloglu, Bulent, 2010. "Monetary shocks, exchange rates and trade balances: Evidence from inflation targeting countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 1144-1155, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:4:p:1650-1672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.