IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v151y2025ics0264999325001567.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

How demographic changes reshape the housing sector: Evidence from China’s labor allocation and price dynamics

Author

Listed:
  • Yang, Xintong
  • Li, Jiao
  • Yi, Chengdong

Abstract

This paper investigates how changes in fertility and mortality rates reshape labor allocation and housing prices, addressing gaps in understanding the structural impacts beyond direct housing demand. While existing literature focuses primarily on demographic influences on housing prices, sectoral labor adjustments remain underexplored. Using panel data from 297 Chinese cities (1999–2019) and an overlapping generations model, we analyze how demographic changes affect the construction and real estate services industries. We find higher fertility rates increase employment in both industries and raise house prices, while lower mortality rates increase employment in real estate services industry. These findings reveal important structural mechanisms: fertility-driven population growth boosts new housing demand, whereas aging from lower mortality shifts labor toward real estate services. Our findings offer novel insights into the general equilibrium channels linking demographic transitions and housing markets, with implications for urban planning and labor market policies in aging economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang, Xintong & Li, Jiao & Yi, Chengdong, 2025. "How demographic changes reshape the housing sector: Evidence from China’s labor allocation and price dynamics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001567
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107161
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999325001567
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2025.107161?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:151:y:2025:i:c:s0264999325001567. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.