IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v85y2025icp131-149.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Shadow banking contraction and employment decisions in manufacturing firms: Empirical evidence from China's new asset management regulations

Author

Listed:
  • Yuan, Zhengrong
  • Yu, Qiuzuo

Abstract

This study represents the inaugural exploration utilizing the 2018 "New Asset Management Regulation" (NAMR) as a quasi-natural experiment to examine the repercussions of the reduced scale of shadow banking, prompted by the regulation, on the employment scale of enterprises. Analyzing a dataset comprising Chinese manufacturing companies listed from 2015 to 2020, the empirical findings indicate a significant decline in the labor employment scale of companies exhibiting higher financialization levels post-implementation of the NAMR, as opposed to those with lower financialization levels. Mechanism analysis reveals that the policy heightens financing constraints and escalates debt default risks, thereby hindering employment in enterprises. The heterogeneity analysis demonstrates a more pronounced negative impact on employment in companies characterized by higher long-term use of short-term debt, diminished growth prospects, heightened involvement in shadow banking, and increased development levels in local shadow banking. Additionally, the policy primarily limits the employment size in firms that finance or engage in arbitrage through shadow banking, while also reducing the demand for low-educated labor within these firms. This study enhances understanding of the impact of shadow banking on the real economy. Moreover, it offers valuable insights for advancing the standardization and market-oriented development of asset management businesses.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuan, Zhengrong & Yu, Qiuzuo, 2025. "Shadow banking contraction and employment decisions in manufacturing firms: Empirical evidence from China's new asset management regulations," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 131-149.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:85:y:2025:i:c:p:131-149
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.016
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S031359262400328X
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2024.11.016?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Chen, Zhuo & He, Zhiguo & Liu, Chun, 2020. "The financing of local government in China: Stimulus loan wanes and shadow banking waxes," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 137(1), pages 42-71.
    2. Lu, Yunlin & Guo, Haifeng & Kao, Erin H. & Fung, Hung-Gay, 2015. "Shadow banking and firm financing in China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 40-53.
    3. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses during the Great Recession," Working Papers 17-01, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
    4. Antonio Falato & Nellie Liang, 2016. "Do Creditor Rights Increase Employment Risk? Evidence from Loan Covenants," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(6), pages 2545-2590, December.
    5. Zhigang Qiu & Xi Sun & Lijun Wu & Dun Jia & Ziyue Wang, 2023. "The 2018 new asset management regulation and LGFV bonds in China," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 469-493, October.
    6. Fabio Berton & Sauro Mocetti & Andrea F. Presbitero & Matteo Richiardi, 2018. "Banks, Firms, and Jobs," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(6), pages 2113-2156.
    7. Demir, FIrat, 2009. "Financial liberalization, private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 314-324, March.
    8. Thierry Theurillat & Jose Corpataux & Olivier Crevoisier, 2008. "Property Sector Financialization: The Case of Swiss Pension Funds (1992--2005)," European Planning Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 189-212, December.
    9. Allen, Franklin & Qian, Jun & Qian, Meijun, 2005. "Law, finance, and economic growth in China," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 57-116, July.
    10. Ouédraogo, Rasmané & Sawadogo, Relwendé & Sawadogo, Hamidou, 2021. "Access to the banking sector and employment in Africa," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 260-269.
    11. Xavier Giroud & Holger M. Mueller, 2017. "Firm Leverage, Consumer Demand, and Employment Losses During the Great Recession," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 132(1), pages 271-316.
    12. Meghana Ayyagari & Pedro Juarros & Maria Soledad Martinez Peria & Sandeep Singh, 2021. "Access to Finance and Job Growth: Firm-Level Evidence across Developing Countries [Big constraints to small firms’ growth? Business environment and employment growth across firms]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 25(5), pages 1473-1496.
    13. Si, Deng-Kui & Wan, Shen & Li, Xiao-Lin & Kong, Dongmin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and shadow banking: Firm-level evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    14. Benmelech, Efraim & Frydman, Carola & Papanikolaou, Dimitris, 2019. "Financial frictions and employment during the Great Depression," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 541-563.
    15. Jiang, Guohua & Lee, Charles M.C. & Yue, Heng, 2010. "Tunneling through intercorporate loans: The China experience," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(1), pages 1-20, October.
    16. Popov, Alexander & Rocholl, Jörg, 2018. "Do credit shocks affect labor demand? Evidence for employment and wages during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 16-27.
    17. Liu, Qing & Lu, Yi, 2015. "Firm investment and exporting: Evidence from China's value-added tax reform," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 392-403.
    18. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2018. "The effects of financialization on investment: evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1393-1416.
    19. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 2000. "Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities are Useful: A Comment on Kaplan and Zingales," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 115(2), pages 695-705.
    20. Duca, John V., 2016. "How capital regulation and other factors drive the role of shadow banking in funding short-term business credit," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(S1), pages 10-24.
    21. Chuyuan Liu, 2023. "Disruption of corporate financialization and labor cost growth: Evidence from China’s new asset management rules," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(6), pages 1-25, June.
    22. Chemmanur, Thomas J. & Cheng, Yingmei & Zhang, Tianming, 2013. "Human capital, capital structure, and employee pay: An empirical analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 478-502.
    23. Andrea Caggese & Vicente Cuñat, 2008. "Financing Constraints and Fixed‐term Employment Contracts," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 118(533), pages 2013-2046, November.
    24. Edward I. Altman, 1968. "Financial Ratios, Discriminant Analysis And The Prediction Of Corporate Bankruptcy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 23(4), pages 589-609, September.
    25. Chen, Yan & Sun, Ruiqi, 2023. "Corporate financialization and the long-term use of short-term debt: Evidence from China," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PD).
    26. repec:nct:journl:v:18:y:2010:i:2:p:189-212 is not listed on IDEAS
    27. Bruce C. Greenwald & Joseph E. Stiglitz, 1986. "Externalities in Economies with Imperfect Information and Incomplete Markets," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(2), pages 229-264.
    28. Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2010. "New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1909-1940.
    29. Ziqin Yu & Xiang Xiao, 2022. "Shadow banking contraction and innovation efficiency of tech-based SMEs-based on the implementation of China’s New Asset Management Regulation," Eurasian Business Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 12(2), pages 251-275, June.
    30. Custódio, Cláudia & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laureano, Luís, 2013. "Why are US firms using more short-term debt?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 182-212.
    31. Chan, Kenneth S. & Dang, Vinh Q.T. & Yan, Isabel K.M., 2012. "Financial reform and financing constraints: Some evidence from listed Chinese firms," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 482-497.
    32. Thierry Theurillat & José Corpataux & Olivier Crevoisier, "undated". "Property Sector Financialization: The Case of Swiss Pension Funds (1992–2005)," GRET Journal Papers 02-10, GRET Group of Research in Territorial Economy, University of Neuchâtel.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Berger, Allen N. & Molyneux, Phil & Wilson, John O.S., 2020. "Banks and the real economy: An assessment of the research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    2. Fangfang Hou & Elisabetta Magnani & Xinpeng Xu, 2022. "International capital markets and domestic employment: Evidence from worldwide publicly listed large firms," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 220-250, January.
    3. Gregor Bäurle & Sarah M. Lein & Elizabeth Steiner, 2017. "Employment Adjustment and Financial Constraints - Evidence from Firm-level Data," Working Papers 2017-18, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Bäurle, Gregor & Lein, Sarah M. & Steiner, Elizabeth, 2021. "Employment adjustment and financial tightness – Evidence from firm-level data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    5. Liu, Qi & Wu, Jiejie, 2025. "Financial regulation and corporate social responsibility: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 89(C).
    6. Ghaly, Mohamed & Dang, Viet Anh & Stathopoulos, Konstantinos, 2020. "Institutional investors' horizons and corporate employment decisions," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    7. Cathcart, Lara & Dufour, Alfonso & Rossi, Ludovico & Varotto, Simone, 2024. "Corporate bankruptcy and banking deregulation: The effect of financial leverage," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    8. Giroud, Xavier & Mueller, Holger M., 2021. "Firm leverage and employment dynamics," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(3), pages 1381-1394.
    9. Si, Deng-Kui & Li, Xiao-Lin, 2022. "Shadow banking business and firm risk-taking: Evidence from China," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    10. Qi, Yong & Yang, Yudi & Yang, Shuo & Lyu, Simeng, 2021. "Does government funding promote or inhibit the financialization of manufacturing enterprises? Evidence from listed Chinese enterprises," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. Xia, Yanchun & Qiao, Zhilin & Xie, Guanghua, 2022. "Corporate resilience to the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of digital finance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    12. Moser, Christian & Saidi, Farzad & Wirth, Benjamin & Wolter, Stefanie, 2020. "Credit Supply, Firms, and Earnings Inequality," MPRA Paper 100371, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Huang, Bingbing & Cui, Yuying & Chan, Kam C., 2022. "Firm-level financialization: Contributing factors, sources, and economic consequences," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1153-1162.
    14. Philipp Meinen & Ana Cristina Soares, 2022. "Markups and Financial Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 132(647), pages 2471-2499.
    15. Guler, Ozan & Mariathasan, Mike & Mulier, Klaas & Okatan, Nejat G., 2019. "The Real Effects of Credit Supply: Review, Synthesis, and Future Directions," MPRA Paper 96542, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Zeng, Xiaoming & Chen, Hao & Yin, Yanzhao & Liu, Youjin, 2024. "CEOs’ financial work experience and firms’ outbound investments," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    17. Chen, Xiaoxiong & Mu, Jinghao & Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan, 2024. "Bank liability structure and corporate employment: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).
    18. Kárpáti, Dániel & Renneboog, Luc, 2024. "Corporate Financial Frictions and Employee Mental Health," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 59(5), pages 2256-2298, August.
    19. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    20. Bo Gao & Jing Ma & Zheng Wang, 2021. "The employment and wage effects of export VAT rebates: evidence from China," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 157(2), pages 347-373, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:85:y:2025:i:c:p:131-149. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.