IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v175y2025ics0165188925000648.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Coinvestment games under uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît
  • Villeneuve, Stéphane
  • Delpech, Fabien
  • Grapotte, May-Line

Abstract

There are many business situations in which investments by a supplier and a producer (“coinvestments”) are both necessary for either of them to grasp a business opportunity. For instance, better quality tanks are needed to manufacture reliable hydrogen-powered vehicles. One of these two firms may be more willing to invest, but the cautionary attitude of the other delays the coinvestment. We model supply-chain interactions in a classical tractable way to derive the firms' net present values (NPVs) upon coinvestment and determine their Nash equilibrium investment (timing) strategies. Firms coinvest when the real option of the weaker firm is ‘deep in the money.’ These business situations are likely to be affected by evolving market circumstances, in particular due to changes in the demand dynamics or endogenous decision (by, say, the supplier) to conduct research and development (R&D). We investigate related model extensions, which confirm the robustness of our key result.

Suggested Citation

  • Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Villeneuve, Stéphane & Delpech, Fabien & Grapotte, May-Line, 2025. "Coinvestment games under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:175:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000648
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105098
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188925000648
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2025.105098?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    2. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Investment timing and vertical relationships," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-123.
    3. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoit & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2012. "Competitive Strategy: Options and Games," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262015994, December.
    4. Thijssen, Jacco J.J. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2012. "Symmetric equilibrium strategies in game theoretic real option models," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(4), pages 219-225.
    5. Robert Swinney & Serguei Netessine, 2009. "Long-Term Contracts Under the Threat of Supplier Default," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 11(1), pages 109-127, September.
    6. Farzin, Y. H. & Huisman, K. J. M. & Kort, P. M., 1998. "Optimal timing of technology adoption," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(5), pages 779-799, May.
    7. Awi Federgruen & Nan Yang, 2009. "Optimal Supply Diversification Under General Supply Risks," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 57(6), pages 1451-1468, December.
    8. Sharma, Gagan Deep & Verma, Mahesh & Taheri, Babak & Chopra, Ritika & Parihar, Jaya Singh, 2023. "Socio-economic aspects of hydrogen energy: An integrative review," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 192(C).
    9. William P. Rogerson, 1992. "Contractual Solutions to the Hold-Up Problem," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 59(4), pages 777-793.
    10. Chung-Lun Li & Panos Kouvelis, 1999. "Flexible and Risk-Sharing Supply Contracts Under Price Uncertainty," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 45(10), pages 1378-1398, October.
    11. Pauli Murto, 2004. "Exit in Duopoly Under Uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 35(1), pages 111-127, Spring.
    12. Hackbarth, Dirk & Miao, Jianjun, 2012. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions in oligopolistic industries," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 585-609.
    13. E. Glen Weyl & Michal Fabinger, 2013. "Pass-Through as an Economic Tool: Principles of Incidence under Imperfect Competition," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 121(3), pages 528-583.
    14. Morellec, Erwan & Zhdanov, Alexei, 2005. "The dynamics of mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 649-672, September.
    15. Moon, Yongma & Yao, Tao & Park, Sungsoon, 2011. "Price negotiation under uncertainty," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 413-423, December.
    16. Berry, Gene D. & Pasternak, Alan D. & Rambach, Glenn D. & Ray Smith, J. & Schock, Robert N., 1996. "Hydrogen as a future transportation fuel," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 21(4), pages 289-303.
    17. repec:hal:journl:halshs-02096674 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Trigeorgis, Lenos & Tsekrekos, Andrianos E., 2018. "Real Options in Operations Research: A Review," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 270(1), pages 1-24.
    19. Jean Tirole, 1988. "The Theory of Industrial Organization," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262200716, December.
    20. Ye, Fanglin & Paulson, Nicholas & Khanna, Madhu, 2024. "Strategic innovation and technology adoption under technological uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    21. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    22. Brian Tomlin, 2006. "On the Value of Mitigation and Contingency Strategies for Managing Supply Chain Disruption Risks," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(5), pages 639-657, May.
    23. Riedel, Frank & Steg, Jan-Henrik, 2017. "Subgame-perfect equilibria in stochastic timing games," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 36-50.
    24. Drew Fudenberg & Jean Tirole, 1985. "Preemption and Rent Equalization in the Adoption of New Technology," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 52(3), pages 383-401.
    25. Joseph J. Spengler, 1950. "Vertical Integration and Antitrust Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 347-347.
    26. Stéphane Villeneuve, 2007. "On the Threshold Strategies and Smooth-Fit Principle For Optimal Stopping Problems," Post-Print hal-00173165, HAL.
    27. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    28. Balter, Anne G. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2022. "New insights in capacity investment under uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    29. Sarah Yini Gao & David Simchi-Levi & Chung-Piaw Teo & Zhenzhen Yan, 2019. "Disruption Risk Mitigation in Supply Chains: The Risk Exposure Index Revisited," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 67(3), pages 831-852, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Villeneuve, Stéphane & Delpech, Fabien & Grapotte, May-Line, 2025. "Coinvestment games under uncertainty," TSE Working Papers 25-1635, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    2. Benoît Chevalier-Roignant & Stéphane Villeneuve & Fabien Delpech & May-Line Grapotte, 2025. "Coinvestment games under uncertainty," Post-Print hal-05033712, HAL.
    3. Ebina, Takeshi & Kumakura, Yuya & Nishide, Katsumasa, 2022. "Hostile takeovers or friendly mergers? Real options analysis," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Balter, Anne G. & Huisman, Kuno J.M. & Kort, Peter M., 2022. "Effects of creative destruction on the size and timing of an investment," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
    5. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Investment timing and vertical relationships," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 110-123.
    6. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2021. "Strategic technology switching under risk aversion and uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Huberts, N.F.D. & Dawid, H. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 2019. "Entry deterrence by timing rather than overinvestment in a strategic real options framework," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 274(1), pages 165-185.
    8. Tarsalewska, Monika, 2015. "The timing of mergers along the production chain, capital structure, and risk dynamics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 51-64.
    9. Ye, Fanglin & Paulson, Nicholas & Khanna, Madhu, 2024. "Strategic innovation and technology adoption under technological uncertainty," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 165(C).
    10. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    11. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2019. "Dynamic competition and intellectual property rights in a model of product development," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 270-296.
    12. Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno & de Villemeur, Étienne, 2010. "On the Timing of Vertical Relationships," IDEI Working Papers 627, Institut d'Économie Industrielle (IDEI), Toulouse, revised 11 Apr 2011.
    13. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2025. "Strategic Investment with Positive Externalities," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 708, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    14. Xiaoqin Wu & Zhijun Hu, 2025. "Strategic capacity investment under demand ambiguity with creative destruction," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 101(2), pages 259-303, April.
    15. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    16. Steg, Jan-Henrik & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2023. "Strategic investment with positive externalities," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 1-21.
    17. Wang, Xunxiao & Wu, Chongfeng & Xu, Weidong, 2015. "When to buy or sell in supply chains with the presence of mergers," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 137-145.
    18. Dimitrios Zormpas, 2017. "How vertical relationships and external funding affect investment efficiency and timing?," 2017 Papers pzo81, Job Market Papers.
    19. Hellmann, Tobias & Thijssen, Jacco J.J., 2016. "Fear of the market or fear of the competitor? Ambiguity in a real options game," Center for Mathematical Economics Working Papers 533, Center for Mathematical Economics, Bielefeld University.
    20. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Innovation and imitation incentives in dynamic duopoly," MPRA Paper 59453, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:175:y:2025:i:c:s0165188925000648. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.