IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v111y2020ics0165188919302246.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Real option duopolies with quasi-hyperbolic discounting

Author

Listed:
  • Luo, Pengfei
  • Tian, Yuan
  • Yang, Zhaojun

Abstract

This paper utilizes a real options and game-theoretic approach to consider the strategic real investment in a duopoly market under uncertainty with time-inconsistent preferences resulting from quasi-hyperbolic discounting. We show that the time-consistent agent becomes the leader when s/he interacts with a time-inconsistent rival. If the rival’s time inconsistency is very significant, the leader will optimally behave as if competition did not exist. If the two rivals have about the same time preferences, the leader will accelerate investment and her/his investment threshold will accord with the rival’s preemptive one, which is higher than that determined in the classical time-consistent model. The inefficiency of investment from preemptive competition is mitigated and even eliminated if the heterogeneity among agents is sufficiently high. Our model provides a behavioral explanation for the empirical fact that preemption occurs in some markets but is not present in others.

Suggested Citation

  • Luo, Pengfei & Tian, Yuan & Yang, Zhaojun, 2020. "Real option duopolies with quasi-hyperbolic discounting," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:111:y:2020:i:c:s0165188919302246
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103829
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188919302246
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2019.103829?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2004. "Strategic technology adoption taking into account future technological improvements: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 159(3), pages 705-728, December.
    2. Huisman, Kuno J. M. & Kort, Peter M., 2003. "Strategic investment in technological innovations," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 144(1), pages 209-223, January.
    3. Shibata, Takashi & Yamazaki, Hiroshi, 2010. "Strategic investment timing under asymmetric access charge regulation in telecommunications," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(3), pages 1689-1701, December.
    4. Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty and time-inconsistent preferences," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 2-39, April.
    5. Helen Weeds, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
    6. Lambrecht, Bart & Perraudin, William, 2003. "Real options and preemption under incomplete information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 619-643, February.
    7. Tian, Yuan, 2016. "Optimal capital structure and investment decisions under time-inconsistent preferences," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 83-104.
    8. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    9. Thaler, Richard, 1981. "Some empirical evidence on dynamic inconsistency," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 201-207.
    10. Mason, Robin & Weeds, Helen, 2010. "Investment, uncertainty and pre-emption," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 28(3), pages 278-287, May.
    11. Christopher Harris & David Laibson, 2013. "Instantaneous Gratification," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 128(1), pages 205-248.
    12. Graham, Jeffrey, 2011. "Strategic real options under asymmetric information," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(6), pages 922-934, June.
    13. Kong, Jean J. & Kwok, Yue Kuen, 2007. "Real options in strategic investment games between two asymmetric firms," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(2), pages 967-985, September.
    14. Yao-Wen Hsu & Bart Lambrecht, 2007. "Preemptive patenting under uncertainty and asymmetric information," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 5-28, April.
    15. Lien, Donald & Yu, Chia-Feng (Jeffrey), 2014. "Time-inconsistent investment, financial constraints, and cash flow hedging," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 72-79.
    16. Myers, Stewart C., 1977. "Determinants of corporate borrowing," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 5(2), pages 147-175, November.
    17. Avinash K. Dixit & Robert S. Pindyck, 1994. "Investment under Uncertainty," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, number 5474.
    18. Michi Nishihara & Takashi Shibata, 2010. "Interactions between Preemptive Competition and a Financing Constraint," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(4), pages 1013-1042, December.
    19. George Loewenstein & Drazen Prelec, 1992. "Anomalies in Intertemporal Choice: Evidence and an Interpretation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 107(2), pages 573-597.
    20. Grenadier, Steven R, 1996. "The Strategic Exercise of Options: Development Cascades and Overbuilding in Real Estate Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1653-1679, December.
    21. Pengfei Luo & Jie Xiong & Jinqiang Yang & Zhaojun Yang, 2019. "Real options under a double exponential jump-diffusion model with regime switching and partial information," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(6), pages 1061-1073, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Michi NISHIHARA, 2020. "Preemptive competition between two firms with different discount rates," Discussion Papers in Economics and Business 20-04, Osaka University, Graduate School of Economics.
    2. Michi Nishihara, 2021. "Preemptive competition between two firms with different discount rates," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(3), pages 675-687, April.
    3. Tan, Yingxian & Luo, Pengfei, 2021. "The impact of debt restructuring on dynamic investment and financing policies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    4. Yanzhao Li & Ju-e Guo & Shaolong Sun & Yongwu Li, 2022. "How time-inconsistent preferences influence venture capital exit decisions? A new perspective for grandstanding," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Azevedo, Alcino & Paxson, Dean, 2014. "Developing real option game models," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 237(3), pages 909-920.
    2. Arasteh, Abdollah, 2017. "Considering the investment decisions with real options games approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 1282-1294.
    3. Chevalier-Roignant, Benoît & Flath, Christoph M. & Huchzermeier, Arnd & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2011. "Strategic investment under uncertainty: A synthesis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 215(3), pages 639-650, December.
    4. Niu, Yingjie & He, Linfeng & Wu, Wei, 2021. "Managerial compensation with hyperbolic discounting," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    5. Siddiqui, Afzal & Takashima, Ryuta, 2012. "Capacity switching options under rivalry and uncertainty," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 222(3), pages 583-595.
    6. Alcino Azevedo & Dean Paxson, 2018. "Rivalry and uncertainty in complementary investments with dynamic market sharing," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 271(2), pages 319-355, December.
    7. Shibata, Takashi, 2016. "Strategic entry in a triopoly market of firms with asymmetric cost structures," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 249(2), pages 728-739.
    8. Sendstad, Lars Hegnes & Chronopoulos, Michail, 2017. "Strategic Technology Switching under Risk Aversion and Uncertainty," Discussion Papers 2017/10, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    9. Grenadier, Steven R. & Wang, Neng, 2007. "Investment under uncertainty and time-inconsistent preferences," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 2-39, April.
    10. Yanzhao Li & Ju'e Guo & Yongwu Li & Xu Zhang, 2021. "Optimal exit decision of venture capital under time-inconsistent preferences," Papers 2103.11557, arXiv.org.
    11. Kuno J.M. Huisman & Peter M. Kort, 2015. "Strategic capacity investment under uncertainty," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 46(2), pages 376-408, June.
    12. Nishihara, Michi, 2014. "Preemptive investment game with alternative projects," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 124-135.
    13. Hu, Fan & Zhang, Fan & Zou, Zhentao, 2020. "R&D investment under time-inconsistent preferences," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 197(C).
    14. Jeon, Haejun, 2021. "Investment timing and capacity decisions with time-to-build in a duopoly market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 122(C).
    15. Yanzhao Li & Ju-e Guo & Shaolong Sun & Yongwu Li, 2022. "How time-inconsistent preferences influence venture capital exit decisions? A new perspective for grandstanding," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 8(1), pages 1-24, December.
    16. Billette de Villemeur, Etienne & Ruble, Richard & Versaevel, Bruno, 2014. "Innovation and imitation incentives in dynamic duopoly," MPRA Paper 59453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Pablo Moran, 2017. "Information Revelation in Merger Waves," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 6(2), pages 174-233.
    18. Luca Di Corato, 2018. "Rural land development under hyperbolic discounting: a real option approach," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 167-182, July.
    19. Femminis, Gianluca & Martini, Gianmaria, 2011. "Irreversible investment and R&D spillovers in a dynamic duopoly," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(7), pages 1061-1090, July.
    20. Li, Yuan & Yang, Jinqiang & Zhao, Siqi, 2022. "Present-biased government and sovereign debt dynamics," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Option game; Duopoly competition; Time-inconsistent preferences; Preemptive investment;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:111:y:2020:i:c:s0165188919302246. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.