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Impact evaluations in data-scarce environments: The case of stress-tolerant rice varieties in Bangladesh

Author

Listed:
  • Michler, Jeffrey D.
  • Al Rafi, Dewan Abdullah
  • Giezendanner, Jonathan
  • Josephson, Anna
  • Pede, Valerien O.
  • Tellman, Elizabeth

Abstract

New technologies are sometimes introduced at times or in places that lack the necessary data to conduct a well-identified impact evaluation. We develop a methodology that combines Earth Observation (EO) data and deep learning with administrative and survey data so as to allow researchers to conduct impact evaluations when traditional economic data is missing. To demonstrate our method, we study stress tolerant rice varieties (STRVs) first introduced to Bangladesh 15 years ago. Using EO data on rice production and flooding for the entire country, spanning two decades, we find evidence of STRV effectiveness. We highlight how the nature of the technology, which is only effective under a specific set of circumstances, creates a Goldilocks Problem that EO data is particularly well suited to addressing. Our findings speak to the promises and challenges of using EO data to conduct impact evaluations in data-scarce environments.

Suggested Citation

  • Michler, Jeffrey D. & Al Rafi, Dewan Abdullah & Giezendanner, Jonathan & Josephson, Anna & Pede, Valerien O. & Tellman, Elizabeth, 2026. "Impact evaluations in data-scarce environments: The case of stress-tolerant rice varieties in Bangladesh," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 179(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:179:y:2026:i:c:s0304387825001993
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103648
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    JEL classification:

    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • Q12 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Micro Analysis of Farm Firms, Farm Households, and Farm Input Markets
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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