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Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator

Author

Listed:
  • Salvati, Nicola
  • Chandra, Hukum
  • Giovanna Ranalli, M.
  • Chambers, Ray

Abstract

Nonparametric regression is widely used as a method of characterizing a non-linear relationship between a variable of interest and a set of covariates. Practical application of nonparametric regression methods in the field of small area estimation is fairly recent, and has so far focussed on the use of empirical best linear unbiased prediction under a model that combines a penalized spline (p-spline) fit and random area effects. The concept of model-based direct estimation is used to develop an alternative nonparametric approach to estimation of a small area mean. The suggested estimator is a weighted average of the sample values from the area, with weights derived from a linear regression model with random area effects extended to incorporate a smooth, nonparametrically specified trend. Estimation of the mean squared error of the proposed small area estimator is also discussed. Monte Carlo simulations based on both simulated and real datasets show that the proposed model-based direct estimator and its associated mean squared error estimator perform well. They are worth considering in small area estimation applications where the underlying population regression relationships are non-linear or have a complicated functional form.

Suggested Citation

  • Salvati, Nicola & Chandra, Hukum & Giovanna Ranalli, M. & Chambers, Ray, 2010. "Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(9), pages 2159-2171, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:54:y:2010:i:9:p:2159-2171
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167, January.
    2. Jiming Jiang & P. Lahiri, 2006. "Mixed model prediction and small area estimation," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 15(1), pages 1-96, June.
    3. Ugarte, M.D. & Goicoa, T. & Militino, A.F. & Durbán, M., 2009. "Spline smoothing in small area trend estimation and forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(10), pages 3616-3629, August.
    4. María José Lombardía & Stefan Sperlich, 2008. "Semiparametric inference in generalized mixed effects models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(5), pages 913-930, November.
    5. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506, January.
    6. M. P. Wand, 2003. "Smoothing and mixed models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 223-249, July.
    7. J. D. Opsomer & G. Claeskens & M. G. Ranalli & G. Kauermann & F. J. Breidt, 2008. "Non‐parametric small area estimation using penalized spline regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 265-286, February.
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    1. N. Salvati & N. Tzavidis & M. Pratesi & R. Chambers, 2012. "Small area estimation via M-quantile geographically weighted regression," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(1), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Tapabrata Maiti & Samiran Sinha & Ping-Shou Zhong, 2016. "Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(3), pages 886-903, September.
    3. Chiara Bocci & Emilia Rocco, 2014. "Estimates for geographical domains through geoadditive models in presence of incomplete geographical information," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 23(2), pages 283-305, June.
    4. María José Lombardía & Esther López‐Vizcaíno & Cristina Rueda, 2017. "Mixed generalized Akaike information criterion for small area models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1229-1252, October.
    5. Chandra, Hukum & Salvati, Nicola & Chambers, Ray & Tzavidis, Nikos, 2012. "Small area estimation under spatial nonstationarity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2875-2888.
    6. Stefan Sperlich, 2013. "Comments on: Model-free model-fitting and predictive distributions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 22(2), pages 227-233, June.

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