IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/csdana/v53y2009i10p3616-3629.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Spline smoothing in small area trend estimation and forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Ugarte, M.D.
  • Goicoa, T.
  • Militino, A.F.
  • Durbán, M.

Abstract

Semiparametric models combining both non-parametric trends and small area random effects are now currently being investigated in small area estimation (SAE). These models can prevent bias when the functional form of the relationship between the response and the covariates is unknown. Furthermore, penalized spline regression can be a good tool to incorporate non-parametric regression models into the SAE techniques, as it can be represented as a mixed effects model. A penalized spline model is considered to analyze trends in small areas and to forecast future values of the response. The prediction mean squared error (MSE) for the fitted and the predicted values, together with estimators for those quantities, are derived. The procedure is illustrated with real data consisting of average prices per squared meter of used dwellings in nine neighborhoods of the city of Vitoria, Spain, during the period 1993-2007. Dwelling prices for the next five years are also forecast. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of both the small area trend estimator and the prediction MSE estimators. The results confirm a good behavior of the proposed estimators in terms of bias and variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ugarte, M.D. & Goicoa, T. & Militino, A.F. & Durbán, M., 2009. "Spline smoothing in small area trend estimation and forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(10), pages 3616-3629, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:53:y:2009:i:10:p:3616-3629
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0167-9473(09)00074-7
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. J. D. Opsomer & G. Claeskens & M. G. Ranalli & G. Kauermann & F. J. Breidt, 2008. "Non‐parametric small area estimation using penalized spline regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 265-286, February.
    2. A. F. Militino & M. D. Ugarte & L. García-Reinaldos, 2004. "Alternative Models for Describing Spatial Dependence among Dwelling Selling Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 193-209, September.
    3. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521780506.
    4. M. P. Wand, 2003. "Smoothing and mixed models," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 223-249, July.
    5. Eilers, Paul H.C. & Currie, Iain D. & Durban, Maria, 2006. "Fast and compact smoothing on large multidimensional grids," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-76, January.
    6. Simon N. Wood, 2003. "Thin plate regression splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 65(1), pages 95-114, February.
    7. Ciprian M. Crainiceanu & David Ruppert, 2004. "Likelihood ratio tests in linear mixed models with one variance component," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 66(1), pages 165-185, February.
    8. Ruppert,David & Wand,M. P. & Carroll,R. J., 2003. "Semiparametric Regression," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521785167.
    9. Gilmour, Arthur & Cullis, Brian & Welham, Sue & Gogel, Beverley & Thompson, Robin, 2004. "An efficient computing strategy for prediction in mixed linear models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 571-586, January.
    10. Helen Parise & M. P. Wand & David Ruppert & Louise Ryan, 2001. "Incorporation of historical controls using semiparametric mixed models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 50(1), pages 31-42.
    11. Brent A. Coull & David Ruppert & M. P. Wand, 2001. "Simple Incorporation of Interactions into Additive Models," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 539-545, June.
    12. Ciprian Crainiceanu & David Ruppert & Gerda Claeskens & M. P. Wand, 2005. "Exact likelihood ratio tests for penalised splines," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 92(1), pages 91-103, March.
    13. González-Manteiga, W. & Lombardi­a, M.J. & Molina, I. & Morales, D. & Santamari­a, L., 2008. "Analytic and bootstrap approximations of prediction errors under a multivariate Fay-Herriot model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(12), pages 5242-5252, August.
    14. M. Ugarte & A. Militino & T. Goicoa, 2009. "Benchmarked estimates in small areas using linear mixed models with restrictions," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 18(2), pages 342-364, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. N. Salvati & N. Tzavidis & M. Pratesi & R. Chambers, 2012. "Small area estimation via M-quantile geographically weighted regression," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(1), pages 1-28, March.
    2. Nikos Tzavidis & Li‐Chun Zhang & Angela Luna & Timo Schmid & Natalia Rojas‐Perilla, 2018. "From start to finish: a framework for the production of small area official statistics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(4), pages 927-979, October.
    3. Ralf Münnich & Julian Wagner & Joachim Hill & Johannes Stoffels & Henning Buddenbaum & Thomas Udelhoven, 2016. "Schätzung von Holzvorräten unter Verwendung von Fernerkundungsdaten [Estimation of timber reserves using remote sensing data]," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 10(2), pages 95-112, October.
    4. María José Lombardía & Esther López‐Vizcaíno & Cristina Rueda, 2017. "Mixed generalized Akaike information criterion for small area models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1229-1252, October.
    5. Chandra, Hukum & Salvati, Nicola & Chambers, Ray & Tzavidis, Nikos, 2012. "Small area estimation under spatial nonstationarity," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2875-2888.
    6. María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Cristina Rueda, 2021. "Selection model for domains across time: application to labour force survey by economic activities," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 30(1), pages 228-254, March.
    7. Cameron Roach & Rob Hyndman & Souhaib Ben Taieb, 2021. "Non‐linear mixed‐effects models for time series forecasting of smart meter demand," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(6), pages 1118-1130, September.
    8. Julian Wagner & Ralf Münnich & Joachim Hill & Johannes Stoffels & Thomas Udelhoven, 2017. "Non‐parametric small area models using shape‐constrained penalized B‐splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1089-1109, October.
    9. Tzavidis, Nikos & Zhang, Li-Chun & Luna Hernandez, Angela & Schmid, Timo & Rojas-Perilla, Natalia, 2016. "From start to finish: A framework for the production of small area official statistics," Discussion Papers 2016/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
    10. Tomasz Ża̧dło, 2015. "On longitudinal moving average model for prediction of subpopulation total," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 749-771, August.
    11. Francisca Corpas-Burgos & Miguel A. Martinez-Beneito, 2021. "An Autoregressive Disease Mapping Model for Spatio-Temporal Forecasting," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-17, February.
    12. Militino, A.F. & Goicoa, T. & Ugarte, M.D., 2012. "Estimating the percentage of food expenditure in small areas using bias-corrected P-spline based estimators," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2934-2948.
    13. Tapabrata Maiti & Samiran Sinha & Ping-Shou Zhong, 2016. "Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(3), pages 886-903, September.
    14. Shonosuke Sugasawa & Tatsuya Kubokawa & J. N. K. Rao, 2018. "Small area estimation via unmatched sampling and linking models," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 27(2), pages 407-427, June.
    15. Salvati, Nicola & Chandra, Hukum & Giovanna Ranalli, M. & Chambers, Ray, 2010. "Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(9), pages 2159-2171, September.
    16. Rebecca Steorts & M. Ugarte, 2014. "Comments on: “Single and two-stage cross-sectional and time series benchmarking procedures for small area estimation”," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(4), pages 680-685, December.
    17. Marina Khismatullina & Michael Vogt, 2022. "Multiscale Comparison of Nonparametric Trend Curves," Papers 2209.10841, arXiv.org.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Militino, A.F. & Goicoa, T. & Ugarte, M.D., 2012. "Estimating the percentage of food expenditure in small areas using bias-corrected P-spline based estimators," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2934-2948.
    2. J. D. Opsomer & G. Claeskens & M. G. Ranalli & G. Kauermann & F. J. Breidt, 2008. "Non‐parametric small area estimation using penalized spline regression," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 70(1), pages 265-286, February.
    3. Chandra, Hukum & Salvati, Nicola & Chambers, Ray, 2018. "Small area estimation under a spatially non-linear model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 19-38.
    4. Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé & Lee, Dae-Jin & Kneib, Thomas & Durbán, María & Eilers, Paul, 2013. "Fast algorithm for smoothing parameter selection in multidimensional generalized P-splines," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws133026, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
    5. Yuanjia Wang & Huaihou Chen, 2012. "On Testing an Unspecified Function Through a Linear Mixed Effects Model with Multiple Variance Components," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(4), pages 1113-1125, December.
    6. Strasak, Alexander M. & Umlauf, Nikolaus & Pfeiffer, Ruth M. & Lang, Stefan, 2011. "Comparing penalized splines and fractional polynomials for flexible modelling of the effects of continuous predictor variables," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 1540-1551, April.
    7. Sonja Greven & Ciprian Crainiceanu, 2013. "On likelihood ratio testing for penalized splines," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 97(4), pages 387-402, October.
    8. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2017. "Who leaves and when? Selective outmigration of immigrants from Germany," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 610-621.
    9. Basile, Roberto & Durbán, María & Mínguez, Román & María Montero, Jose & Mur, Jesús, 2014. "Modeling regional economic dynamics: Spatial dependence, spatial heterogeneity and nonlinearities," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 229-245.
    10. Chen, Haiqiang & Fang, Ying & Li, Yingxing, 2015. "Estimation And Inference For Varying-Coefficient Models With Nonstationary Regressors Using Penalized Splines," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 753-777, August.
    11. Lauren Hund & Jarvis T. Chen & Nancy Krieger & Brent A. Coull, 2012. "A Geostatistical Approach to Large-Scale Disease Mapping with Temporal Misalignment," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 68(3), pages 849-858, September.
    12. repec:wyi:journl:002195 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Philip T. Reiss & R. Todd Ogden, 2010. "Functional Generalized Linear Models with Images as Predictors," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 61-69, March.
    14. Øystein Sørensen & Anders M. Fjell & Kristine B. Walhovd, 2023. "Longitudinal Modeling of Age-Dependent Latent Traits with Generalized Additive Latent and Mixed Models," Psychometrika, Springer;The Psychometric Society, vol. 88(2), pages 456-486, June.
    15. Roca-Pardinas, Javier & Cadarso-Suarez, Carmen & Tahoces, Pablo G. & Lado, Maria J., 2008. "Assessing continuous bivariate effects among different groups through nonparametric regression models: An application to breast cancer detection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(4), pages 1958-1970, January.
    16. Smith, Michael S. & Kauermann, Göran, 2011. "Bicycle commuting in Melbourne during the 2000s energy crisis: A semiparametric analysis of intraday volumes," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1846-1862.
    17. Salvati, Nicola & Chandra, Hukum & Giovanna Ranalli, M. & Chambers, Ray, 2010. "Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(9), pages 2159-2171, September.
    18. Padoan, S.A. & Wand, M.P., 2008. "Mixed model-based additive models for sample extremes," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(17), pages 2850-2858, December.
    19. Nadja Klein & Michel Denuit & Stefan Lang & Thomas Kneib, 2013. "Nonlife Ratemaking and Risk Management with Bayesian Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape," Working Papers 2013-24, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    20. Guangyu Zhang & Roderick Little, 2009. "Extensions of the Penalized Spline of Propensity Prediction Method of Imputation," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 911-918, September.
    21. Lee, Wang-Sheng, 2014. "Big and Tall: Is there a Height Premium or Obesity Penalty in the Labor Market?," IZA Discussion Papers 8606, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:53:y:2009:i:10:p:3616-3629. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/csda .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.