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Spline smoothing in small area trend estimation and forecasting

Author

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  • Ugarte, M.D.
  • Goicoa, T.
  • Militino, A.F.
  • Durbán, M.

Abstract

Semiparametric models combining both non-parametric trends and small area random effects are now currently being investigated in small area estimation (SAE). These models can prevent bias when the functional form of the relationship between the response and the covariates is unknown. Furthermore, penalized spline regression can be a good tool to incorporate non-parametric regression models into the SAE techniques, as it can be represented as a mixed effects model. A penalized spline model is considered to analyze trends in small areas and to forecast future values of the response. The prediction mean squared error (MSE) for the fitted and the predicted values, together with estimators for those quantities, are derived. The procedure is illustrated with real data consisting of average prices per squared meter of used dwellings in nine neighborhoods of the city of Vitoria, Spain, during the period 1993-2007. Dwelling prices for the next five years are also forecast. A simulation study is conducted to assess the performance of both the small area trend estimator and the prediction MSE estimators. The results confirm a good behavior of the proposed estimators in terms of bias and variability.

Suggested Citation

  • Ugarte, M.D. & Goicoa, T. & Militino, A.F. & Durbán, M., 2009. "Spline smoothing in small area trend estimation and forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 53(10), pages 3616-3629, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:53:y:2009:i:10:p:3616-3629
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    3. N. Salvati & N. Tzavidis & M. Pratesi & R. Chambers, 2012. "Small area estimation via M-quantile geographically weighted regression," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 21(1), pages 1-28, March.
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    6. Julian Wagner & Ralf Münnich & Joachim Hill & Johannes Stoffels & Thomas Udelhoven, 2017. "Non‐parametric small area models using shape‐constrained penalized B‐splines," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1089-1109, October.
    7. Tzavidis, Nikos & Zhang, Li-Chun & Luna Hernandez, Angela & Schmid, Timo & Rojas-Perilla, Natalia, 2016. "From start to finish: A framework for the production of small area official statistics," Discussion Papers 2016/13, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
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    9. Nikos Tzavidis & Li‐Chun Zhang & Angela Luna & Timo Schmid & Natalia Rojas‐Perilla, 2018. "From start to finish: a framework for the production of small area official statistics," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 181(4), pages 927-979, October.
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    11. Tapabrata Maiti & Samiran Sinha & Ping-Shou Zhong, 2016. "Functional Mixed Effects Model for Small Area Estimation," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 43(3), pages 886-903, September.
    12. Rebecca Steorts & M. Ugarte, 2014. "Comments on: “Single and two-stage cross-sectional and time series benchmarking procedures for small area estimation”," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 23(4), pages 680-685, December.
    13. Salvati, Nicola & Chandra, Hukum & Giovanna Ranalli, M. & Chambers, Ray, 2010. "Small area estimation using a nonparametric model-based direct estimator," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 54(9), pages 2159-2171, September.
    14. María José Lombardía & Esther López‐Vizcaíno & Cristina Rueda, 2017. "Mixed generalized Akaike information criterion for small area models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 180(4), pages 1229-1252, October.
    15. María José Lombardía & Esther López-Vizcaíno & Cristina Rueda, 2021. "Selection model for domains across time: application to labour force survey by economic activities," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 30(1), pages 228-254, March.
    16. Militino, A.F. & Goicoa, T. & Ugarte, M.D., 2012. "Estimating the percentage of food expenditure in small areas using bias-corrected P-spline based estimators," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(10), pages 2934-2948.
    17. Marina Khismatullina & Michael Vogt, 2022. "Multiscale Comparison of Nonparametric Trend Curves," Papers 2209.10841, arXiv.org.

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