IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/asieco/v97y2025ics1049007825000211.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange rate pass-through in Nepal

Author

Listed:
  • Lama, Anil
  • Budha, Birendra Bahadur
  • Prabhesh, K.P.
  • Rana, Sona

Abstract

This paper estimates the exchange rate pass-through in Nepal using Local Projections based on monthly data for the period from March 1993 to October 2023. The paper finds a significant exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices for up to 12 months. Moreover, the pass-through is significant during the depreciation of the exchange rate but not during appreciation periods, indicating the asymmetric effect of exchange rate changes. Additionally, exchange rate pass-through has significantly declined after the formal announcement of Nepalese monetary policy in 2003 and the global financial crisis in 2007. The presence of a significant pass-through, given the peg with the Indian Rupee and high trade integration with India, suggests that it is important for the central bank to consider this pass-through while making monetary policy decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Lama, Anil & Budha, Birendra Bahadur & Prabhesh, K.P. & Rana, Sona, 2025. "Exchange rate pass-through in Nepal," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s1049007825000211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101897
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1049007825000211
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.asieco.2025.101897?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
    2. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
    3. Taylor, John B., 2000. "Low inflation, pass-through, and the pricing power of firms," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1389-1408, June.
    4. Burstein, Ariel & Gopinath, Gita, 2014. "International Prices and Exchange Rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: Gopinath, G. & Helpman, . & Rogoff, K. (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 0, pages 391-451, Elsevier.
    5. Delatte, Anne-Laure & López-Villavicencio, Antonia, 2012. "Asymmetric exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from major countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 833-844.
    6. Sushanta Mallick & Helena Marques, 2008. "Passthrough of Exchange Rate and Tariffs into Import Prices of India: Currency Depreciation versus Import Liberalization," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(4), pages 765-782, September.
    7. López-Villavicencio, Antonia & Mignon, Valérie, 2017. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging countries: Do the inflation environment, monetary policy regime and central bank behavior matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 20-38.
    8. Matthieu Bussière & Simona Delle Chiaie & Tuomas A Peltonen, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in the Global Economy: The Role of Emerging Market Economies," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 62(1), pages 146-178, April.
    9. Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
    10. Mr. Edimon Ginting, 2007. "Is Inflation in India an Attractor of Inflation in Nepal?," IMF Working Papers 2007/269, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Casas, Camila, 2020. "Industry heterogeneity and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    12. Francesca G. Caselli & Agustin Roitman, 2019. "Nonlinear exchange‐rate pass‐through in emerging markets," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 22(3), pages 279-306, December.
    13. Takatoshi Ito & Kiyotaka Sato, 2008. "Exchange Rate Changes and Inflation in Post‐Crisis Asian Economies: Vector Autoregression Analysis of the Exchange Rate Pass‐Through," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 40(7), pages 1407-1438, October.
    14. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss & Nicolas E. Magud & Fabián Valencia, 2021. "Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 61-94, September.
    15. Yan Carrière‐Swallow & Melih Firat & Davide Furceri & Daniel Jiménez, 2025. "State‐Dependent Exchange Rate Pass‐Through," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 87(3), pages 539-561, June.
    16. Whitney Newey & Kenneth West, 2014. "A simple, positive semi-definite, heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent covariance matrix," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 33(1), pages 125-132.
    17. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2013. "Size and power properties of structural break unit root tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(6), pages 721-728, February.
    18. Edson Manguinhane & Felix F. Simione, 2021. "An Empirical Assessment of the Exchange Rate Pass-through in Mozambique," IMF Working Papers 2021/132, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Philip R Lane & Livio Stracca, 2018. "Can appreciation be expansionary? Evidence from the euro area," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 33(94), pages 225-264.
    20. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2008. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through And Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 13889, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Afees A. Salisu & Lukman Lasisi & Abeeb Olaniran, 2021. "Do Epidemics and Pandemics Have Predictive Content for Exchange Rate Movements? Evidence for Asian Economies," Asian Economics Letters, Asia-Pacific Applied Economics Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-6.
    22. Michael Debabrata Patra & Joice John, 2018. "Non-Linear, Asymmetric and TimeVarying Exchange Rate Pass-Through: Recent Evidence from India," Working Papers id:12700, eSocialSciences.
    23. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    24. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Stephan Popp, 2010. "A new unit root test with two structural breaks in level and slope at unknown time," Journal of Applied Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(9), pages 1425-1438.
    25. Kassi, Diby François & Sun, Gang & Ding, Ning & Rathnayake, Dilesha Nawadali & Assamoi, Guy Roland, 2019. "Asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: Evidence from emerging and developing Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-372.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Núñez, Héctor M. & Otero, Jesús & Trujillo-Barrera, Andrés, 2023. "Wholesale price rigidities and exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from daily data of agricultural products," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    2. Beirne, John & Renzhi, Nuobu & Panthi, Pradeep, 2024. "Exchange rate pass-through in emerging Asia and exposure to external shocks," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 1608-1624.
    3. Nasir, Muhammad Ali & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2020. "A quarter century of inflation targeting & structural change in exchange rate pass-through: Evidence from the first three movers," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 42-61.
    4. Anderl, Christina & Caporale, Guglielmo Maria, 2023. "Nonlinearities in the exchange rate pass-through: The role of inflation expectations," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 86-101.
    5. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2016. "Nonlinear Pass-Through of Exchange Rate Shocks on Inflation: A Bayesian Smooth Transition VAR Approach," Borradores de Economia 930, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    6. Roberta Colavecchio & Ieva Rubene, 2019. "Non-linear exchange rate pass-through to euro area inflation: A local projection approach," BCL working papers 138, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    7. Omer Fazil Emek & Faruk Dusunceli & Omer Doru, 2021. "Investigation of the Exchange Rate Pass-through Effect on Domestic Producer and Consumer Prices in Turkey," Istanbul Journal of Economics-Istanbul Iktisat Dergisi, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 71(1), pages 163-190, June.
    8. Karolina Konopczak, 2019. "Can inaction account for the incomplete exchangerate pass-through? Evidence from threshold ARDL model," MF Working Papers 37, Ministry of Finance in Poland.
    9. Kassi, Diby François & Sun, Gang & Ding, Ning & Rathnayake, Dilesha Nawadali & Assamoi, Guy Roland, 2019. "Asymmetry in exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices: Evidence from emerging and developing Asian countries," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 357-372.
    10. Ha, Jongrim & Marc Stocker, M. & Yilmazkuday, Hakan, 2020. "Inflation and exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C).
    11. Hernán Rincón-Castro & Norberto Rodríguez-Niño, 2018. "Nonlinear state and shock dependence of exchange rate pass through on prices," BIS Working Papers 690, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Diby François Kassi & Dilesha Nawadali Rathnayake & Akadje Jean Roland Edjoukou & Yobouet Thierry Gnangoin & Pierre Axel Louembe & Ning Ding & Gang Sun, 2019. "Asymmetry in Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices: New Perspective from Sub-Saharan African Countries," Economies, MDPI, vol. 7(1), pages 1-33, January.
    13. Kristin Forbes & Ida Hjortsoe & Tsvetelina Nenova, 2020. "International Evidence on Shock-Dependent Exchange Rate Pass-Through," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 68(4), pages 721-763, December.
    14. Yan Carrière-Swallow & Bertrand Gruss & Nicolas E. Magud & Fabián Valencia, 2021. "Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 61-94, September.
    15. Antonia López-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2020. "Exchange rate pass-through to import prices: accounting for changes in the eurozone trade structure," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(4), pages 835-858, November.
    16. Georgiadis, Georgios & Gräb, Johannes & Khalil, Makram, 2019. "Global value chain participation and exchange rate pass-through," Working Paper Series 2327, European Central Bank.
    17. Apaitan, Tosapol & Manopimoke, Pym & Nookhwun, Nuwat & Pattararangrong, Jettawat, 2024. "Heterogeneity in exchange rate pass-through to import prices in Thailand: Evidence from micro data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    18. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Siew-Voon Soon & Mark E. Wohar, 2021. "Phillips Curve for the Asian Economies: A Nonlinear Perspective," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(12), pages 3508-3537, September.
    19. Channary Khun & Sokchea Lim & Hem Basnet, 2021. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Japanese Import Prices: Evidence at Both Bilateral and Product Levels," American Business Review, Pompea College of Business, University of New Haven, vol. 24(2), pages 115-132.
    20. Sy-Hoa Ho & Idir Hafrad & Viet Dung Tran, 2022. "Asymmetric exchange rates pass-through in Vietnam," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 42(3), pages 1657-1672.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:asieco:v:97:y:2025:i:c:s1049007825000211. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/asieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.