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Does tourism lead to peace?

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  • Becken, Susanne
  • Carmignani, Fabrizio

Abstract

Tourism is often heralded as a force for peace, however, empirical research to confirm this suggestion is scant. To address this gap, this research integrates several datasets on conflict and tourism to examine whether a larger inflow of tourists makes civil conflict less likely. Several theoretical arguments of the role of tourism alongside other peace determining factors are presented. These inform the development of a probit model, and several specifications, that tests the hypothesis based on data from 126 countries and for the years from 1995 to 2010. The findings provide strong evidence that increasing tourism arrivals have a stabilising effect and increase the chance of peace. Implications for tourism and its role in the process of development are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Becken, Susanne & Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2016. "Does tourism lead to peace?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 63-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:anture:v:61:y:2016:i:c:p:63-79
    DOI: 10.1016/j.annals.2016.09.002
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    2. Tzu-Ming Liu, 2020. "Habit formation or word of mouth: What does lagged dependent variable in tourism demand models imply?," Tourism Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 461-474, May.
    3. Ahn, Sang-Jin & Yi, Seung-Kyu, 2021. "Methodological framework for analyzing peace engineering: Focusing on Kaesong Industrial Complex and North Korean innovators in South Korea," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    4. Natalia Tomczewska-Popowycz & Łukasz Quirini-Popławski, 2021. "Political Instability Equals the Collapse of Tourism in Ukraine?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-20, April.
    5. Kádár, Bálint & Gede, Mátyás, 2021. "Tourism flows in large-scale destination systems," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    6. Khalilzadeh, Jalayer, 2018. "Demonstration of exponential random graph models in tourism studies: Is tourism a means of global peace or the bottom line?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 31-41.
    7. Festus Fatai Adedoyin & Naila Erum & Festus Victor Bekun, 2022. "How does institutional quality moderates the impact of tourism on economic growth? Startling evidence from high earners and tourism-dependent economies," Tourism Economics, , vol. 28(5), pages 1311-1332, August.

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