IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Post-conflict risks


  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler
  • Måns Söderbom


Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and risk reduction. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be highly effective in the economic recovery. In this paper we concentrate on the other challenge, risk reduction. The post-conflict peace is typically fragile: around half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. Both external actors and the post-conflict government must therefore give priority to reducing the risk of conflict. Our statistical results suggest that economic development does substantially reduce risks, but it takes a long time. We also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results we cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the postconflict peace. Based on these results we suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a simple and statistically strong relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2006. "Post-conflict risks," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2006-12

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:


    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.

    Cited by:

    1. Aguirre, Alvaro, 2016. "The risk of civil conflicts as a determinant of political institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 36-59.
    2. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2011. "Development and large scale violence," Discussion Papers Series 433, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    3. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    4. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Javed Younas, 2016. "Conflicts and domestic bank lending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 315-331, December.
    5. Reeves, Aaron & Sochas, Laura, 2022. "When do democratic transitions reduce or increase child mortality? Exploring the role of non-violent resistance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    6. Tobias, Jutta M. & Mair, Johanna & Barbosa-Leiker, Celestina, 2013. "Toward a theory of transformative entrepreneuring: Poverty reduction and conflict resolution in Rwanda's entrepreneurial coffee sector," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 728-742.
    7. Paul Collier, 2006. "Africa : geography and growth," TEN, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Fall, pages 18-21.
    8. World Bank Group, 2016. "An Integrated Framework for Jobs in Fragile and Conflict Situations," World Bank Publications - Reports 25296, The World Bank Group.
    9. Muhammad Badiuzzaman & Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2016. "Impact of post-conflict development interventions on maternal healthcare utilization," WIDER Working Paper Series 082, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    10. Becken, Susanne & Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2016. "Does tourism lead to peace?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 63-79.
    11. Lindley Anna, 2009. "Remittances and Conflict: Some Conceptual Considerations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(6), pages 774-786, December.
    12. Nawo, Larissa & Njangang, Henri, 2018. "Co-investments and African infrastructure deficit: Understanding and mitigating political risks in Conflicts Affected and Fragile States," MPRA Paper 90295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. William Easterly, 2009. "Can the West Save Africa?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 373-447, June.
    14. Magnus Lundgren, 2017. "Which type of international organizations can settle civil wars?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 613-641, December.
    15. Fabrizio Carmignani & Adrian Gauci, 2009. "Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars," Discussion Papers Series 402, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    16. Fransen, Sonja & Siegel, Melissa, 2011. "The Development of Diaspora Engagement Policies in Burundi and Rwanda," MERIT Working Papers 2011-038, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    17. Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, 2011. "World Investment and Political Risk 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2538, December.
    18. Haggard, Stephan & Tiede, Lydia, 2011. "The Rule of Law and Economic Growth: Where are We?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 673-685, May.
    19. Silove, Derrick & Brooks, Robert & Bateman Steel, Catherine Robina & Steel, Zachary & Hewage, Kalhari & Rodger, James & Soosay, Ian, 2009. "Explosive anger as a response to human rights violations in post-conflict Timor-Leste," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 670-677, September.
    20. Chang Hoon Oh & Jennifer Oetzel, 2017. "Once bitten twice shy? Experience managing violent conflict risk and MNC subsidiary‐level investment and expansion," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 714-731, March.
    21. Vincenzo Bove & Ron Smith, 2011. "The Economics of Peacekeeping," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2006-12. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Julia Coffey (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.