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Post-conflict risks

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  • Paul Collier
  • Anke Hoeffler
  • Måns Söderbom

Abstract

Post-conflict societies face two distinctive challenges: economic recovery and risk reduction. Aid and policy reforms have been found to be highly effective in the economic recovery. In this paper we concentrate on the other challenge, risk reduction. The post-conflict peace is typically fragile: around half of all civil wars are due to post-conflict relapses. Both external actors and the post-conflict government must therefore give priority to reducing the risk of conflict. Our statistical results suggest that economic development does substantially reduce risks, but it takes a long time. We also find evidence that UN peacekeeping expenditures significantly reduce the risk of renewed war. The effect is large: doubling expenditure reduces the risk from 40% to 31%. In contrast to these results we cannot find any systematic influence of elections on the reduction of war risk. Therefore, post-conflict elections should be promoted as intrinsically desirable rather than as mechanisms for increasing the durability of the postconflict peace. Based on these results we suggest that peace appears to depend upon an external military presence sustaining a gradual economic recovery, with political design playing a somewhat subsidiary role. Since there is a simple and statistically strong relationship between the severity of post-conflict risks and the level of income at the end of the conflict this provides a clear and uncontroversial principle for resource allocation: resources per capita should be approximately inversely proportional to the level of income in the post-conflict country.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Collier & Anke Hoeffler & Måns Söderbom, 2006. "Post-conflict risks," CSAE Working Paper Series 2006-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    • Handle: RePEc:csa:wpaper:2006-12
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    Cited by:

    1. Aguirre, Alvaro, 2016. "The risk of civil conflicts as a determinant of political institutions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 36-59.
    2. Dominic Rohner, 2018. "Success Factors for Peace Treaties: A Review of Theory and Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'économie 18.08, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, Département d’économie.
    3. Reeves, Aaron & Sochas, Laura, 2022. "When do democratic transitions reduce or increase child mortality? Exploring the role of non-violent resistance," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 314(C).
    4. Tobias, Jutta M. & Mair, Johanna & Barbosa-Leiker, Celestina, 2013. "Toward a theory of transformative entrepreneuring: Poverty reduction and conflict resolution in Rwanda's entrepreneurial coffee sector," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 728-742.
    5. Tsopmo, Pierre Christian & Mbouombouo Vessah, Salim Ahmed & Soumtang Bime, Valentine & Mondjeli Mwa Ndjokou, Itchoko Motande, 2024. "Do African countries avoid the curse of natural resources on social cohesion?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C).
    6. World Bank Group, 2016. "An Integrated Framework for Jobs in Fragile and Conflict Situations," World Bank Publications - Reports 25296, The World Bank Group.
    7. Muhammad Badiuzzaman & Syed Mansoob Murshed, 2016. "Impact of post-conflict development interventions on maternal healthcare utilization," WIDER Working Paper Series 082, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    8. Becken, Susanne & Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2016. "Does tourism lead to peace?," Annals of Tourism Research, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 63-79.
    9. Nawo, Larissa & Njangang, Henri, 2018. "Co-investments and African infrastructure deficit: Understanding and mitigating political risks in Conflicts Affected and Fragile States," MPRA Paper 90295, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Magnus Lundgren, 2017. "Which type of international organizations can settle civil wars?," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 12(4), pages 613-641, December.
    11. Fabrizio Carmignani & Adrian Gauci, 2009. "Does fiscal policy differ between successful and unsuccessful post-conflict transitions? Lessons from African Civil Wars," Discussion Papers Series 402, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    12. Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency, 2011. "World Investment and Political Risk 2010," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 2538, April.
    13. William Easterly, 2009. "Can the West Save Africa?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 47(2), pages 373-447, June.
    14. Khachatryan, Knar, 2024. "Entrepreneurship amid armed conflicts: Insights from Artsakh," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 67(6), pages 727-741.
    15. Lopera-Arbeláez, Isabel & Richter, Solveig, 2024. "Transformative approaches for peace-centred sustainable development: The role of social and solidarity economy," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    16. Fabrizio Carmignani, 2011. "Development and large scale violence," Discussion Papers Series 433, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    17. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Javed Younas, 2016. "Conflicts and domestic bank lending," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 315-331, December.
    18. Paul Collier, 2006. "Africa : geography and growth," TEN, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Fall, pages 18-21.
    19. Igreja, Victor & Rodrigues, Francisco Aparecido & Cristino, Alexandre Santos, 2025. "A social network analysis of family and community conflicts in post-civil war Mozambique," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 189(C).
    20. Lindley Anna, 2009. "Remittances and Conflict: Some Conceptual Considerations," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 229(6), pages 774-786, December.
    21. Fransen, Sonja & Siegel, Melissa, 2011. "The Development of Diaspora Engagement Policies in Burundi and Rwanda," MERIT Working Papers 2011-038, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    22. Haggard, Stephan & Tiede, Lydia, 2011. "The Rule of Law and Economic Growth: Where are We?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 673-685, May.
    23. Silove, Derrick & Brooks, Robert & Bateman Steel, Catherine Robina & Steel, Zachary & Hewage, Kalhari & Rodger, James & Soosay, Ian, 2009. "Explosive anger as a response to human rights violations in post-conflict Timor-Leste," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 69(5), pages 670-677, September.
    24. Chang Hoon Oh & Jennifer Oetzel, 2017. "Once bitten twice shy? Experience managing violent conflict risk and MNC subsidiary‐level investment and expansion," Strategic Management Journal, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(3), pages 714-731, March.
    25. Vincenzo Bove & Ron Smith, 2011. "The Economics of Peacekeeping," Chapters, in: Derek L. Braddon & Keith Hartley (ed.), Handbook on the Economics of Conflict, chapter 10, Edward Elgar Publishing.

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