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Projecting trends of arabica coffee yield under climate change: A process-based modelling study at continental scale

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  • Della Peruta, Raniero
  • Mereu, Valentina
  • Spano, Donatella
  • Marras, Serena
  • Vezy, Rémi
  • Trabucco, Antonio

Abstract

Climate change may lead to negative impacts on coffee production, such as reduced yields. Addressing this issue requires identifying climate risks and assessing the adaptation potential of agronomic practices across spatial and environmental gradients.

Suggested Citation

  • Della Peruta, Raniero & Mereu, Valentina & Spano, Donatella & Marras, Serena & Vezy, Rémi & Trabucco, Antonio, 2025. "Projecting trends of arabica coffee yield under climate change: A process-based modelling study at continental scale," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 227(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:agisys:v:227:y:2025:i:c:s0308521x25000939
    DOI: 10.1016/j.agsy.2025.104353
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Bunn & Peter Läderach & Oriana Ovalle Rivera & Dieter Kirschke, 2015. "A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 129(1), pages 89-101, March.
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    5. Lima Martins & Marcelo Tomaz & Fernando Lidon & Fábio DaMatta & José Ramalho, 2014. "Combined effects of elevated [CO 2 ] and high temperature on leaf mineral balance in Coffea spp. plants," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 126(3), pages 365-379, October.
    6. Rodríguez, Daniel & Cure, José Ricardo & Cotes, José Miguel & Gutierrez, Andrew Paul & Cantor, Fernando, 2011. "A coffee agroecosystem model: I. Growth and development of the coffee plant," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 222(19), pages 3626-3639.
    7. Peter Läderach & Julian Ramirez–Villegas & Carlos Navarro-Racines & Carlos Zelaya & Armando Martinez–Valle & Andy Jarvis, 2017. "Climate change adaptation of coffee production in space and time," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 141(1), pages 47-62, March.
    8. Jacob Schewe & Simon N. Gosling & Christopher Reyer & Fang Zhao & Philippe Ciais & Joshua Elliott & Louis Francois & Veronika Huber & Heike K. Lotze & Sonia I. Seneviratne & Michelle T. H. van Vliet &, 2019. "State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.
    9. Muhammad Faraz & Valentina Mereu & Donatella Spano & Antonio Trabucco & Serena Marras & Daniel El Chami, 2023. "A Systematic Review of Analytical and Modelling Tools to Assess Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation on Coffee Agrosystems," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(19), pages 1-19, October.
    10. Rahn, Eric & Vaast, Philippe & Läderach, Peter & van Asten, Piet & Jassogne, Laurence & Ghazoul, Jaboury, 2018. "Exploring adaptation strategies of coffee production to climate change using a process-based model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 371(C), pages 76-89.
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