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Nonconstant Price Expectations and Acreage Response: The Case of Cotton Production in Georgia

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  • Parrott, Scott D.
  • McIntosh, Christopher S.

Abstract

An adaptive regression model is used to examine the relative importance of cash and government support prices in determining cotton production over time. The results show that the cash price is more important as a source of price information for cotton producers than the government program price. The cash price was shown to have a greater influence on acreage response in every year, including periods thought to be dominated by government commodity programs.

Suggested Citation

  • Parrott, Scott D. & McIntosh, Christopher S., 1996. "Nonconstant Price Expectations and Acreage Response: The Case of Cotton Production in Georgia," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 28(1), pages 203-210, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:28:y:1996:i:01:p:203-210_00
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffy, Patricia A. & Richardson, James W. & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1987. "Regional Cotton Acreage Response," Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-11, July.
    2. David R. Lee & Peter G. Helmberger, 1985. "Estimating Supply Response in the Presence of Farm Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 67(2), pages 193-203.
    3. Houck, James P., 1976. "Analyzing the Impact of Government Programs on Crop Acreage," Technical Bulletins 158119, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
    4. McIntosh, Christopher S. & Shumway, C. Richard, 1994. "Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis," Agricultural Economics, Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-11, January.
    5. McIntosh, Christopher S. & Shideed, Kamil H., 1989. "The Effect Of Government Programs On Acreage Response Over Time: The Case Of Corn Production In Iowa," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(1), pages 1-7, July.
    6. Rulon D. Pope, 1981. "Supply Response and the Dispersion of Price Expectations," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 63(1), pages 161-163.
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    Cited by:

    1. Liang, Yan & Miller, J. Corey & Harri, Ardian & Coble, Keith H., 2011. "Crop Supply Response under Risk: Impacts of Emerging Issues on Southeastern U.S. Agriculture," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 43(2), pages 181-194, May.
    2. Magrini, Emiliano & Morales-Opazo, Cristian & Balie, Jean, 2014. "Supply response along the value chain in selected SSA countries: the case of grains," 2014: Food, Resources and Conflict, December 7-9, 2014. San Diego, California 197193, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    3. Houston, Jack E. & McIntosh, Christopher S. & Stavriotis, Paul A. & Turner, Steve C., 1999. "Leading Indicators of Regional Cotton Acreage Response: Structural and Time Series Modeling Results," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 507-517, December.
    4. Jean‐Pascal Bassino & Jean‐Pierre Dormois, 2010. "Rainfall, The Méline Tariff, And Wheat Production In Mediterranean France, 1885–1914," Australian Economic History Review, Economic History Society of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 50(1), pages 23-38, March.
    5. MacDonald, Stephen, 1997. "Global End-Use Demand for Cotton: A Time-Varying Parameter Model," MPRA Paper 70911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Vedenov, Dmitry V., 2003. ""Irrational" Planting Behavior As Rational Expectations Of Government Support," 2003 Annual Meeting, February 1-5, 2003, Mobile, Alabama 35237, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    7. Tribble, Camille M. & Mcintosh, Christopher S. & Wetzstein, Michael E., 1999. "Georgia Cotton Acreage Response to the Boll Weevil Eradication Program," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(3), pages 499-506, December.
    8. Kim, Youngho & Lichtenberg, Erik & Newburn, David, 2022. "Payments and Penalties in Ecosystem Services Programs," 2022 Annual Meeting, July 31-August 2, Anaheim, California 322103, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    9. Flanders, Archie, 2014. "Stocks-to-Use Response for Acreage Allocation of Arkansas Field Crops," Journal of the ASFMRA, American Society of Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers, vol. 2014, pages 1-15.
    10. Stavriotis, Paul A. & Houston, Jack E. & McIntosh, Christopher S. & Turner, Steven C., 1998. "Leading Indicators For Regional Cotton Response: Structural And Time Series Modeling Results," Faculty Series 16717, University of Georgia, Department of Agricultural and Applied Economics.
    11. Emilio Galdeano-Gómez, 2007. "Composite price expectations: An empirical analysis for the Spanish horticultural sector," Agribusiness, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 57-83.

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