Evaluating alternative price expectation models for multiproduct supply analysis
Neoclassical economic theory provides an important conceptual framework for the analysis of agricultural production. Theory provides little guidance, however, in the actual specification of empirical models. This paper applies an integrated approach for choosing between price expectation mechanisms in a multiple-equation model when the alternatives are non-nested. Nine alternative specifications of market price and policy information are developed. Price forecasting accuracy, non-nested tests of hypotheses, and out-of-sample predictive accuracy are examined for agricultural production in Iowa. The results call into question the reliability of using forecasting accuracy as the sole guide to selecting a price expectation proxy.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wallace E. Huffman & Robert E. Evenson, 1989.
"Supply and Demand Functions for Multiproduct U.S. Cash Grain Farms: Biases Caused by Research and Other Policies,"
American Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 71(3), pages 761-773.
- Huffman, Wallace & Evenson, Robert E., 1989. "Supply and Demand Functions for Multiproduct U.S. Cash Grain Farms: Biases Caused by Research and Other Policies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10985, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Lawrence J. Lau, 1975. "The Structure of Consumer Preferences," NBER Chapters, in: Annals of Economic and Social Measurement, Volume 4, number 1, pages 49-101 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Orazem, Peter & Miranowski, John, 1986.
"An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 68(4), pages 603-609, November.
- Miranowski, John & Orazem, Peter, 1986. "An Indirect Test for the Specification of Expectation Regimes," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10702, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Duffy, Patricia A. & Richardson, James W. & Wohlgenant, Michael K., 1987.
"Regional Cotton Acreage Response,"
Southern Journal of Agricultural Economics,
Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 19(01), July.
- Shonkwiler, J S & Maddala, G S, 1985. "Modeling Expectations of Bounded Prices: An Application to the Market for Corn," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 67(4), pages 697-702, November.
- C. Richard Shumway & William P. Alexander, 1988. "Agricultural Product Supplies and Input Demands: Regional Comparisons," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 70(1), pages 153-161.
- Shideed, Kamil H. & White, Fred C., 1989. "Alternative Forms Of Price Expectations In Supply Analysis For U.S. Corn And Soybean Acreages," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 14(02), December.
- Bessler, David A & Chamberlain, Peter J, 1987. "On Bayesian composite forecasting," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 43-48.
- Gallagher, Paul W., 1978. "The Effectiveness Of Price Support Policy--Some Evidence For U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Staff Papers 14140, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
- Gallagher, Paul W., 1978. "The Effectiveness of Price Support Policy--Some Evidence for U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Staff General Research Papers Archive 12561, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
- Hongil Lim & C. Richard Shumway, 1992. "Separability in State-Level Agricultural Technology," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 74(1), pages 120-131.
- Gallagher, Paul, 1978. "The Effectiveness Of Price Support Policy-Some Evidence For U.S. Corn Acreage Response," Agricultural Economics Research, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, issue 4, pages -.
- Pope, Rulon D. & Hallam, Arne, 1988. "Testing separability of production using flexible functional form profit functions," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 265-270.
- Chavas, Jean-Paul & Pope, Rulon D. & Kao, Robert S., 1983. "An Analysis Of The Role Of Futures Prices, Cash Prices And Government Programs In Acreage Response," Western Journal of Agricultural Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 8(01), July.
- Silberberg, Eugene, 1974. "A revision of comparative statics methodology in economics, or, how to do comparative statics on the back of an envelope," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 159-172, February.
- B. J. Morzuch & R. D. Weaver & P. G. Helmberger, 1980. "Wheat Acreage Supply Response under Changing Farm Programs," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 62(1), pages 29-37.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1983. "Testing the specification of multivariate models in the presence of alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 301-313, December.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
- Houck, James P., 1976. "Analyzing the Impact of Government Programs on Crop Acreage," Technical Bulletins 158119, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
- Askari, Hossein & Cummings, John Thomas, 1977. "Estimating Agricultural Supply Response with the Nerlove Model: A Survey," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 18(2), pages 257-292, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:agecon:v:10:y:1994:i:1:p:1-11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.