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Statistical Significance and Stability of the Hog Cycle


  • Shonkwiler, J. Scott
  • Spreen, Thomas H.


Cyclical fluctuations in prices and production have long characterized the United States hog industry. Recent evidence suggests that the length of the hog cycle has changed. In order to determine whether the change in cycle length is statistically significant, the bootstrap technique is employed to derive confidence intervals for point estimates of the hog cycle. Application of the bootstrap technique to time series models is discussed and empirical results are presented. It is concluded that the hog cycle is undergoing rather complicated changes based on cycle lengths that are calculated to be statistically different from zero.

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  • Shonkwiler, J. Scott & Spreen, Thomas H., 1986. "Statistical Significance and Stability of the Hog Cycle," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(2), pages 227-234, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jagaec:v:18:y:1986:i:02:p:227-234_00

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. J. Scott Shonkwiler & Thomas H. Spreen, 1982. "A Dynamic Regression Model of the U.S. Hog Market," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 30(1), pages 37-48, March.
    2. Spreen, Thomas H. & Shonkwiler, J. Scott, 1981. "The Hog Cycle Revisited," 1981 Annual Meeting, July 26-29, Clemson, South Carolina 279384, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
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    Cited by:

    1. Atle Oglend & Frank Asche, 2016. "Cyclical non-stationarity in commodity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1465-1479, December.
    2. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    3. repec:mhr:jinste:urn:sici:0932-4569(201609)172:3_544:fc_2.0.tx_2-z is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Jiong Gong & R. Preston McAfee & Michael A. Williams, 2016. "Fraud Cycles," Journal of Institutional and Theoretical Economics (JITE), Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 172(3), pages 544-572, September.
    5. Holst, Carsten & von Cramon-Taubadel, Stephan, 2011. "International Synchronisation of the Pork Cycle," 2011 International Congress, August 30-September 2, 2011, Zurich, Switzerland 114532, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
    6. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 1999. "On The Economic Rationality Of Market Participants: The Case Of Expectations In The U.S. Pork Market," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-19, July.
    7. Stępień Sebastian & Polcyn Jan, 2016. "The phenomenon of cyclical fluctuations on the pork market - global perspective," Management, Sciendo, vol. 20(1), pages 382-396, May.
    8. Craig, Lee A. & Holt, Matthew T., 2008. "Mechanical refrigeration, seasonality, and the hog-corn cycle in the United States: 1870-1940," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 30-50, January.

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