A Heavy-Tailed Distribution for ARCH Residuals with Application to Volatility Prediction
The quest for the `best' heavy-tailed distribution for ARCH/GARCH residuals appears to still be ongoing. In this connection, we propose a new distribution that arises in a natural way as an outcome of an implicit model. The challenging application of prediction of squared returns is also discussed; an optimal predictor is formulated, and the usefulness of the new distribution for prediction is demonstrated on three real datasets.
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- Peter Hall & Qiwei Yao, 2003. "Inference in Arch and Garch Models with Heavy--Tailed Errors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(1), pages 285-317, January.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
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Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
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