Labour, Demography, and the Export-oriented Growth Model in China
In this paper, we argue that the export-oriented growth model in China is an unavoidable choice for China given its demographics and low level of urbanisation. The low dependency ratio and low urbanisation rate jointly determine a large amount of supply of labour and the slow growth of labour income, which in turn leads to the rapid accumulation of capital and the manufacturing sector. However, the two factors also determine a relatively small domestic market, and the only way to clear the market is to export. Judging by the pace of China's demographic transition and urbanisation, we expect that China's export-oriented model will continue up until 2025.
Volume (Year): 5 (2009)
Issue (Month): (December)
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- Bloom, David E. & Canning, David & Mansfield, Richard K. & Moore, Michael, 2007.
"Demographic change, social security systems, and savings,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 54(1), pages 92-114, January.
- David E. Bloom & David Canning & Rick Mansfield & Michael Moore, 2006. "Demographic Change, Social Security Systems, and Savings," NBER Working Papers 12621, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997.
"Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia,"
NBER Working Papers
6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bloom, David E & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 1998. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 12(3), pages 419-455, September.
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