IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/col/000438/013489.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Una discusión sobre la conveniencia de construir el metro de Bogotá y sobre las dificultades para financiarlo

Author

Listed:
  • Israel Fainboim
  • Carlos Jorge Rodríguez

Abstract

“A finales de 1998 el Departamento Nacional de Planeación encargó a Fedesarrollo un estudio para determinar si el Gobierno Nacional estaba en capacidad de cumplir las obligaciones financieras en las que incurrió durante la administración Samper para financiar los Metros de Bogotá y Cali. Como estas obligaciones son de muy largo plazo, para responder a este interrogante fue necesario realizar un estudio de sostenibilidad fiscal. Aplicando varias de las metodologías existentes para examinar la sostenibilidad fiscal, llegamos a la conclusión de que la situación fiscal era insostenible y que en esas circunstancias todo gasto público adicional, de cualquier magnitud, produce efectos macroeconómicos desfavorables. Con este concepto no queríamos sin embargo convertirnos en los "enterradores" del proyecto del Metro para Bogotá, pues creemos que la ciudad cumple las condiciones necesarias para construir un Metro y que con un marco institucional y regulatorio adecuado, el proyecto podría alcanzar la rentabilidad económico-social estimada en los estudios de factibilidad. Las razones anteriores fueron las que nos llevaron a conceptuar que Bogotá debía construir un Metro, pero que el Gobierno Nacional enfrentaría enormes dificultades para cumplir con los compromisos adquiridos para financiarlo. El presente artículo resume esa posición. Este consta de tres capítulos. El primero presenta las razones por las cuales creemos que Bogotá debe construir un metro mencionando algunas condiciones que deben cumplirse para que el proyecto tenga una alta rentabilidad económico social. El segundo capítulo, describe los resultados obtenidos en los ejercicios de sostenibilidad de la política fiscal, e identifica los factores que van a ejercer mayor presión sobre las finanzas públicas colombianas en el mediano y largo plazo; también evalúa el impacto macroeconómico de los desequilibrios fiscales proyectados. el tercer capítulo las conclusiones.”

Suggested Citation

  • Israel Fainboim & Carlos Jorge Rodríguez, 1999. "Una discusión sobre la conveniencia de construir el metro de Bogotá y sobre las dificultades para financiarlo," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:col:000438:013489
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/11445/2134
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Buiter, W.H. & Patel, U.R., 1990. "Debt, Defucut And Inflation: An Application To The Public Finances Of India," Papers 593, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
    2. Buiter, Willem H. & Patel, Urjit R., 1992. "Debt, deficits, and inflation: An application to the public finances of India," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 171-205, March.
    3. International Monetary Fund, 1998. "Roads to Nowhere; How Corruption in Public investment Hurts Growth," IMF Economic Issues 1998/001, International Monetary Fund.
    4. José Antonio Ocampo, 1997. "Una evaluación de la situación fiscal colombiana," Coyuntura Económica, Fedesarrollo, June.
    5. Polackova, Hana, 1998. "Contingent government liabilities : a hidden risk for fiscal stability," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1989, The World Bank.
    6. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    7. Fischer, Stanley & Easterly, William, 1990. "The Economic of the Government Budget Constraint," The World Bank Research Observer, World Bank, vol. 5(2), pages 127-142, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alonso, Julio César & Olivera, Mauricio & Fainboim Yaker, Israel, 1998. "La sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en América Latina: El caso de Colombia," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6106, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Goyal, Rajan & Khundrakpam, J. K. & Ray, Partha, 2004. "Is India's public finance unsustainable? Or, are the claims exaggerated?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 401-420, April.
    3. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004," Governance Working Papers 21924, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    4. Neaime, Simon, 2015. "Sustainability of budget deficits and public debts in selected European Union countries," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 1-21.
    5. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    6. Mei-Yin Lin, 2014. "The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression," Research in World Economy, Research in World Economy, Sciedu Press, vol. 5(2), pages 31-42, September.
    7. Tilak Abeysinghe & Ananda Jayawickrama, 2013. "A segmented trend model to assess fiscal sustainability: The US experience 1929–2009," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1129-1141, June.
    8. Pierre-Yves Hénin, 1997. "Soutenabilité des déficits et ajustements budgétaires," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 48(3), pages 371-395.
    9. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "The Effects of Debt Intolerance and Public Debt Sustainability on Credit Ratings: Evidence From European Economies," Working Papers 011, Bahcesehir University, Betam.
    10. Ata Ozkaya, 2013. "Public Debt Stock Sustainability in Selected OECD Countries," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 13(1), pages 31-49.
    11. Makrydakis, Stelios & Tzavalis, Elias & Balfoussias, Athanassios, 1998. "Policy regime changes and the long-run sustainability of fiscal policy: an application to Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 71-86, January.
    12. Anita Rath & Arpit Sachan, 2022. "Emerging Issues in Fiscal Sustainability in India: A Study of Central Government Finances, 1979–1980 to 2018–2019," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 11(1), pages 39-68, June.
    13. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Phillip A. Olomola, 2023. "Sub‐Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 85-115, March.
    14. K. R. Shanmugam & P.S. Renjith, 2023. "Sustainability and Threshold Value of Public Debt of Centre and All State Governments in India," Working Papers 2023-240, Madras School of Economics,Chennai,India.
    15. Thomas Krichel & Paul Levine & Joseph Pearlman, 1996. "Fiscal and monetary policy in a monetary union: Credible inflation targets or monetized debt?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 132(1), pages 28-54, March.
    16. Cashin, P. & Olekalns, N., 2000. "An Examination of the Sustainability of Indian Fiscal Policy," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 748, The University of Melbourne.
    17. Jakob Korbinian Eberl, 2016. "The Collateral Framework of the Eurosystem and Its Fiscal Implications," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 69.
    18. P.S. Renjith & K.R. Shanmugam, 2018. "Sustainable Debt Policies of Indian State Governments," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 12(2), pages 224-243, May.
    19. Ananda Jayawickrama & Tilak Abeysinghe, 2006. "Sustainability of Fiscal Deficits : The US Experience 1929-2004," Governance Working Papers 21924, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    20. Das, Piyali & Ghate, Chetan, 2022. "Debt decomposition and the role of inflation: A security level analysis for India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Informes de Investigación; Metro; Sistema de Transporte Rápido; Transporte Urbano; Infraestructura del Transporte; Gasto Público; Financiamiento de Proyectos; Financiamiento del Transporte; Parque Automotor; Troncales para Buses; Empresa Transmilenio; Transmilenio; Proyecciones Económicas;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • L90 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - General
    • P25 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist and Transition Economies - - - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics
    • R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Economics - - - General
    • L92 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Transportation and Utilities - - - Railroads and Other Surface Transportation
    • H50 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - General
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:col:000438:013489. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Patricia Monroy (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/fedesco.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.