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Salidas súbitas de capital en mercados emergentes: ¿cómo minimizar el impacto sobre la economía real?

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  • José Osler Alzate Mahecha

Abstract

Desde comienzos de la década de los noventa, los flujos de capital hacia los mercados emergentes crecieron a niveles históricamente altos. Sin embargo, varios países sufrieron una reversión rápida e inesperada en los flujos de capital. Además, dichas reversiones afectaron de manera simultánea a países con características diferentes. Basándose en los episodios de salidas súbitas de capital que ocurrieron a partir de los anos noventa, el presente trabajo busca evaluar de manera empírica qué características y políticas pueden ayudar a minimizar el costo de una de estas crisis sobre el producto interno bruto (pib). Se encuentra que los países con bajo nivel de endeudamiento externo y que llevaron a cabo una política fiscal contracíclica y una venta de reservas para contrarrestar la devaluación tuvieron una crisis menos costosa. En cambio, el grado de exportaciones de una economía y los cambios en la tasa de intervención del Banco Central no son estadísticamente significativos.

Suggested Citation

  • José Osler Alzate Mahecha, 2011. "Salidas súbitas de capital en mercados emergentes: ¿cómo minimizar el impacto sobre la economía real?," Revista Desarrollo y Sociedad, Universidad de los Andes,Facultad de Economía, CEDE.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008906
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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