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Salidas súbitas de capital en mercados emergentes: ¿cómo minimizar el impacto sobre la economía real?

  • José Osler Alzate Mahecha

    ()

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    Desde comienzos de la década de los noventa, los flujos de capital hacia los mercados emergentes crecieron a niveles históricamente altos. Sin embargo, varios países sufrieron una reversión rápida e inesperada en los flujos de capital. Además, dichas reversiones afectaron de manera simultánea a países con características diferentes. Basándose en los episodios de salidas súbitas de capital que ocurrieron a partir de los años noventa, el presente trabajo busca evaluar de manera empírica qué características y políticas pueden ayudar a minimizar el costo de una de estas crisis sobre el producto interno bruto (pib). Se encuentra que los países con bajo nivel de endeudamiento externo y que llevaron a cabo una política fiscal contracíclica y una venta de reservas para contrarrestar la devaluación tuvieron una crisis menos costosa. En cambio, el grado de exportaciones de una economía y los cambios en la tasa de intervención del Banco Central no son estadísticamente significativos.

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    File URL: http://economia.uniandes.edu.co/revistadys/67/05_Salidas_subitas.pdf
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    Article provided by UNIVERSIDAD DE LOS ANDES-CEDE in its journal REVISTA DESARROLLO Y SOCIEDAD.

    Volume (Year): (2011)
    Issue (Month): ()
    Pages:

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    Handle: RePEc:col:000090:008906
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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6841, Inter-American Development Bank.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo, 2006. "Monetary Policy Challenges in Emerging Markets: Sudden Stop, Liability Dollarization, and Lender of Last Resort," NBER Working Papers 12788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," Research Department Publications 4367, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    4. Sweta Chaman Saxena & Valerie Cerra, 2005. "Growth Dynamics: The Myth of Economic Recovery," IMF Working Papers 05/147, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Guillermo A. Calvo & Alejandro Izquierdo & Luis Fernando Mejía, 2004. "On the Empirics of Sudden Stops: The Relevance of Balance-Sheet Effects," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 6516, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Ricardo J. Caballero & Mohamad L. Hammour, 1991. "The Cleansing Effect of Recessions," NBER Working Papers 3922, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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