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Auswirkungen öffentlicher Konjunkturimpulse auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung

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  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Kurt Kratena
  • Markus Marterbauer

Abstract

Das WIFO untersucht die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Wirkungen expansiver Budgetpolitik mithilfe von zwei empirisch geschätzten makroökonomischen Modellen für die Österreichische Wirtschaft. Dabei werden die Ergebnisse über die Jahre kumuliert ausgewiesen. Im Simulationsdesign wird angenommen, dass der Staat im Konjunkturtief bei sehr niedriger Kapazitätsauslastung über eine Ausweitung der Investitionen in die Verkehrsinfrastruktur oder der Ausgaben für Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien, sowie über eine Senkung der Lohn- und Einkommensteuer oder eine Entlastung des Faktors Arbeit im Ausmaß von 2 Mrd. € (1 % des B I P) das Wirtschaftswachstum stimuliert. Zwei Jahre später wird - unter der Annahme verbesserter Konjunkturlage und günstigerer Kapazitätsauslastung - eine Gegenfinanzierung der expansiven Maßnahmen durch eine Kürzung von Transfers und Personalausgaben im gleichen Ausmaß vorgenommen. Die Auswirkungen expansiver Konjunkturpolitik auf Wirtschaftswachstum und Beschäftigung unterscheiden sich je nach Art der Maßnahmen erheblich. Kurzfristig erhöht eine Ausweitung der Investitionen in die Verkehrsinfrastruktur BIP und Zahl der Arbeitsplätze besonders stark. Langfristig könnten sich Investitionen in Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien als wirkungsvoller erweisen. Die Wachstumseffekte einer Senkung der Lohn- und Einkommensteuer sind positiv, aber deutlich geringer als jene einer Ausweitung der Investitionen. Nur wenn die Abgabenentlastung auf das untere Einkommensdrittel konzentriert wird, steigen BIP und Beschäftigung merklich. Die gesamtwirtschaftlichen Auswirkungen einer Entlastung des Faktors Arbeit hängen stark von den getroffenen Annahmen ab.

Suggested Citation

  • Serguei Kaniovski & Kurt Kratena & Markus Marterbauer, 2003. "Auswirkungen öffentlicher Konjunkturimpulse auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 29(4), pages 503-530.
  • Handle: RePEc:clr:wugarc:y:2003v:29i:4p:503
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Karl Aiginger, 2005. "Strategien zur Erhöhung von Wachstum und Beschäftigung in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25548, December.
    2. Markus Marterbauer, 2010. "Budgetkonsolidierung in Zeiten verminderter Erwartungen," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 36(3), pages 299-323.
    3. Serguei Kaniovski & Kurt Kratena & Markus Marterbauer, 2006. "Auswirkungen von Straßenbauinvestitionen auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 26734, December.
    4. Serguei Kaniovski & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2004. "Selbstfinanzierung der Steuerreform 2004/05," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25033, December.
    5. Barabas, György & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Siemers, Lars-H. & Brilon, Werner, 2010. "Verkehrsinfrastrukturinvestitionen: Wachstumsaspekte im Rahmen einer gestaltenden Finanzpolitik. Endbericht - Januar 2010. Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen. Projektnumm," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 72601.

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