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Auswirkungen öffentlicher Konjunkturimpulse auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung

Author

Listed:
  • Serguei Kaniovski
  • Kurt Kratena

    (WIFO)

  • Markus Marterbauer

    (WIFO)

Abstract

Das WIFO untersucht die Wirkungen einer antizyklischen Budgetpolitik auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung mit dem WIFO-Makromodell und dem Modell "WIFO-Multimac". Im Simulationsdesign wird angenommen, dass auf einen expansiven fiskalischen Impuls im Konjunkturtief restriktive Maßnahmen der Gegenfinanzierung bei überdurchschnittlicher Kapazitätsauslastung folgen. Als besonders wirkungsvolle Maßnahme der Konjunkturbelebung erweist sich die Ausweitung öffentlicher Infrastrukturinvestitionen – sie löst kräftige Zuwächse für BIP und Beschäftigung aus. Selbst nach vollständiger Gegenfinanzierung verbleiben mittelfristig positive gesamtwirtschaftliche Impulse. Eine Ausweitung der öffentlichen Nachfrage nach Informations- und Kommunikationstechnologien hat kurzfristig etwas schwächere Effekte. Der Wachstumseffekt einer Senkung der Lohn- und Einkommensteuer ist generell geringer als jener einer Erhöhung der Staatsausgaben. Wird die Steuersenkung auf das untere Einkommensdrittel konzentriert, so entstehen aufgrund der hohen Konsumneigung merkliche expansive Effekte auf BIP und Beschäftigung. Eine steuerliche Entlastung des mittleren und des oberen Einkommensdrittels löst wesentlich schwächere gesamtwirtschaftliche Wirkungen aus. Die Effekte einer Entlastung des Faktors Arbeit hängen sehr stark von den gewählten Annahmen ab.

Suggested Citation

  • Serguei Kaniovski & Kurt Kratena & Markus Marterbauer, 2003. "Auswirkungen öffentlicher Konjunkturimpulse auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 24614.
    • Handle: RePEc:wfo:wstudy:24614
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    Cited by:

    1. Barabas, György & Kitlinski, Tobias & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Schmidt, Torsten & Siemers, Lars-H. & Brilon, Werner, 2010. "Verkehrsinfrastrukturinvestitionen: Wachstumsaspekte im Rahmen einer gestaltenden Finanzpolitik. Endbericht - Januar 2010. Forschungsprojekt im Auftrag des Bundesministeriums der Finanzen. Projektnumm," RWI Projektberichte, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, number 72601.
    2. Karl Aiginger, 2005. "Strategien zur Erhöhung von Wachstum und Beschäftigung in Österreich," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25548.
    3. Serguei Kaniovski & Kurt Kratena & Markus Marterbauer, 2006. "Auswirkungen von Straßenbauinvestitionen auf Wachstum und Beschäftigung," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 26734.
    4. Serguei Kaniovski & Margit Schratzenstaller, 2004. "Selbstfinanzierung der Steuerreform 2004/05," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 25033.
    5. Markus Marterbauer, 2010. "Budgetkonsolidierung in Zeiten verminderter Erwartungen," Wirtschaft und Gesellschaft - WuG, Kammer für Arbeiter und Angestellte für Wien, Abteilung Wirtschaftswissenschaft und Statistik, vol. 36(3), pages 299-323.

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