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TTIP und die Entwicklungsländer: Gefahren, Potenziale und Politikoptionen

Author

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  • Gabriel Felbermayr

    ()

  • Wilhelm Kohler

Abstract

Das Freihandelsabkommen zwischen der EU und den USA, TTIP, wird aufgrund seiner Größe auch Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer betreffen. Diese profitieren zwar, wenn zusätzliches Wachstum in den TTIP-Ländern die Auslandsnachfrage nach ihren Waren erhöht, aber zugleich müssen sie um ihre preisliche Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in der EU und den USA fürchten, weil die TTIP-Partner in diesen Ländern dank des Abkommens billiger anbieten können. In einer neuen Studie für das Bundesministerium für wirtschaftliche Zusammenarbeit und Entwicklung hat sich das ifo Institut gemeinsam mit dem Institut für Angewandte Wirtschaftsforschung (IAW) in Tübingen mit der Frage beschäftigt, wie sich diese beiden gegenläufigen Effekte saldieren. Die Ergebnisse sind: (i) pauschale Aussagen sind unmöglich, denn manche Drittstaaten werden wahrscheinlich gewinnen, andere verlieren; (ii) die Verluste sind gemäß mehreren Modellsimulationen nicht bedrohlich; (iii) es gibt eine Reihe von realistischen Möglichkeiten, die TTIP entwicklungsländerfreundlich zu gestalten.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2015. "TTIP und die Entwicklungsländer: Gefahren, Potenziale und Politikoptionen," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(02), January.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:68:y:2015:i:02:p:
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gabriel Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler & Rahel Aichele & Günther Klee & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Mögliche Auswirkungen der Transatlantischen Handels- und Investitionspartnerschaft (TTIP) auf Entwicklungs- und Schwellenländer," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 67.
    2. Gabriel Felbermayr & Benedikt Heid & Mario Larch & Erdal Yalcin, 2015. "Macroeconomic potentials of transatlantic free trade: a high resolution perspective for Europe and the world," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(83), pages 491-537.
    3. Baumgarten, Daniel, 2013. "Exporters and the rise in wage inequality: Evidence from German linked employer–employee data," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(1), pages 201-217.
    4. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2013. "Neues von der Basarökonomie," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(06), pages 17-28, March.
    5. Rahel Aichele & Gabriel Felbermayr & Inga Heiland, 2014. "Going Deep: The Trade and Welfare Effects of TTIP," CESifo Working Paper Series 5150, CESifo Group Munich.
    6. Joseph Francois & Miriam Manchin & Hanna Norberg & Olga Pindyuk & Patrick Tomberger, 2013. "Reducing Transatlantic Barriers to Trade and Investment: An Economic Assessment," IIDE Discussion Papers 20130401, Institue for International and Development Economics.
    7. Costinot, Arnaud & Rodríguez-Clare, Andrés, 2014. "Trade Theory with Numbers: Quantifying the Consequences of Globalization," Handbook of International Economics, Elsevier.
    8. Gabriel Felbermayr & Rahel Aichele, 2014. "Transatlantic Free Trade: The View Point of Germany," CESifo Working Paper Series 5151, CESifo Group Munich.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    TTIP; Freihandelszone; Entwicklungsländer; Handelsabkommen; Wirkungsanalyse;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F53 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Agreements and Observance; International Organizations
    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development

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