IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/glecon/v11y2011i4n2.html

The Impact of the Movement of Labour: Results from a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows

Author

Listed:
  • Walmsley Terrie L.

    (Purdue University)

  • Winters Alan

    (University of Sussex)

  • Ahmed Amer

    (World Bank)

Abstract

The economics literature increasingly recognizes the importance of migration. In this paper, a bilateral global migration model is developed to investigate the impact of lifting restrictions on the movement of labour. Quotas on skilled and unskilled labour in the developed economies are increased by 3% of their labour forces, with the additional labour supplied by developing economies.This paper improves upon the previous work of Walmsley and Winters (2005). A critical weakness of the previous work was that it was unable to capture the impacts of specific bilateral migration flows or liberalizations between countries. This paper uses a bilateral global migration model that exploits migration data obtained from Parsons, Skeldon, Winters, and Walmsley (2007) that allow the model to account for bilateral migration flows.The results confirm that restrictions on migration impose significant costs on nearly all countries, with the modest liberalization increasing global GDP by US$ 288 billion. All of the developed (labour importing) economies gain in terms of real incomes. While results differ across the developing (labour exporting) economies, most gain as a result of the higher remittances sent home.JEL: F22, C68, 015

Suggested Citation

  • Walmsley Terrie L. & Winters Alan & Ahmed Amer, 2011. "The Impact of the Movement of Labour: Results from a Model of Bilateral Migration Flows," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 11(4), pages 1-24, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:11:y:2011:i:4:n:2
    DOI: 10.2202/1524-5861.1738
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1524-5861.1738
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1524-5861.1738?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hertel, Thomas, 1997. "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, number 7685, December.
    2. Walmsley, Terrie & Ahmed, Syud Amer & Parsons, Christopher, 2005. "A Global Bilateral Migration Data Base: Skilled Labor, Wages and Remittances," GTAP Research Memoranda 1880, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    3. repec:wbk:wbpubs:8150 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Caglar Ozden & Christopher R. Parsons & Maurice Schiff & Terrie L. Walmsley, 2011. "Where on Earth is Everybody? The Evolution of Global Bilateral Migration 1960-2000," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 12-56, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aguiar, Angel H. & Walmsley, Terrie L., 2014. "The importance of timing in the U.S. response to undocumented immigrants: A recursive dynamic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 253-262.
    2. Fernández-Huertas Moraga, Jesús & Rapoport, Hillel, 2014. "Tradable immigration quotas," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 94-108.
    3. Ahmed, S. Amer & Go,Delfin Sia & Willenbockel,Dirk Andreas, 2016. "Global migration revisited : short-term pains, long-term gains, and the potential of south-south migration," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7628, The World Bank.
    4. Erwin Corong & Thomas Hertel & Robert McDougall & Marinos Tsigas & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, 2017. "The Standard GTAP Model, version 7," Journal of Global Economic Analysis, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, vol. 2(1), pages 1-119, June.
    5. Graneli, Anna & Lodefalk, Magnus, 2014. "Temporary Expats for Export: Firm-Level Evidence," Working Papers 2014:4, Örebro University, School of Business.
    6. Hatzigeorgiou, Andreas & Lodefalk, Magnus, 2015. "The Role of Foreign Networks for Firm Export of Services," Working Papers 2015:6, Örebro University, School of Business.
    7. David E. Wildasin, 2014. "Human Capital Mobility: Implications for Efficiency, Income Distribution, and Policy," CESifo Working Paper Series 4794, CESifo.
    8. Aguiar, Angel & Ahmed, S. Amer & Carrico, Caitlyn, 2016. "Migration Response to Oil Price Volatility: A Dynamic Simulation of Migration from South and Southeast Asia to the GCC," Conference papers 332776, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Magnus Lodefalk, 2016. "Temporary expats for exports: micro-level evidence," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 152(4), pages 733-772, November.
    10. Maliszewska, Maryla & Ahmed, S. Amer & Cruz, Marcio & Winters, Alan, 2016. "Cashing in the demographic dividend," Conference papers 332794, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hertel, Thomas, 2013. "Global Applied General Equilibrium Analysis Using the Global Trade Analysis Project Framework," Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, in: Peter B. Dixon & Dale Jorgenson (ed.), Handbook of Computable General Equilibrium Modeling, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 0, pages 815-876, Elsevier.
    2. Terrie Walmsley & Angel Aguiar & Syud Amer Ahmed, 2017. "Labour Migration and Economic Growth in East and South-East Asia," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(1), pages 116-139, January.
    3. John Cockburn, 2002. "Trade Liberalisation and Poverty in Nepal: A Computable General Equilibrium Micro Simulation Analysis," CSAE Working Paper Series 2002-11, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
    4. repec:wbk:wbpubs:6920 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Keerti Mallela & Sunny Kumar Singh & Archana Srivastava, 2020. "Estimating Bilateral Remittances in a Macroeconomic Framework: Evidence from top Remittance-Receiving Countries," Studies in Microeconomics, , vol. 8(1), pages 95-118, June.
    6. Simon J.Evenett & Mia Mikic & Ravi Ratnayake (ed.), 2011. "Trade-led growth: A sound strategy for Asia," ARTNeT Books and Research Reports, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), number brr10.
    7. Federico Perali & Stefania Lovo, 2009. "Counterfactual analysis using a regional dynamic general equilibrium model with historical calibration," Working Papers 58/2009, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    8. Dixon, Peter & Rimmer, Maureen, 2021. "A GTAP Historical Simulation from 2004 to 2014," Conference papers 333258, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    9. Walmsley, Terrie L. & Hertel, Thomas W. & Ianchovichina, Elena, 2001. "Assessing the Impact of China’s WTO Accession on Foreign Ownership," Conference papers 330941, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Yu, Wusheng & Hertel, Thomas W. & Preckel, Paul V. & Eales, James S., 2004. "Projecting world food demand using alternative demand systems," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 99-129, January.
    11. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    12. Yu, Jisang & Villoria, Nelson B. & Hendricks, Nathan P., 2019. "The Incidence of Foreign Market Accessibility on Farmland Rental Rates," 2019: Recent Advances in Applied General Equilibrium Modeling: Relevance and Application to Agricultural Trade Analysis, December 8-10, 2019, Washington, DC 339333, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    13. Allexandro Mori Coelho & Maria Lúcia L. M. Pádua Lima & Samir Cury & Sergio Goldbaum, 2006. "Impacts Of The Proposals For Tariff Reductions In Nonagricultural Goods (Nama)," Anais do XXXIV Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 34th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 121, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    14. Baldassarre,Alessio & Calà,Valerio Ferdinando & Carullo,Danilo & Dudu,Hasan & Fusco,Elisa Marie & Giacobbe,Pasquale & Orecchia,Carlo, 2023. "Simulating the Effect of Business Tax Abolition through a New Regional CGE Model : Evidencefrom Italy," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10387, The World Bank.
    15. Laborde, David & Martin, Will & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique, 2008. "Implications of the 2008 Doha Draft Agricultural and NAMA Market Access Modalities for Developing Countries," Conference papers 331719, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    16. Hübler, Michael, 2011. "Technology diffusion under contraction and convergence: A CGE analysis of China," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 131-142, January.
    17. Kym Anderson & Ernesto Valenzuela & Lee Ann Jackson, 2008. "Recent and Prospective Adoption of Genetically Modified Cotton: A Global Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Economic Impacts," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56(2), pages 265-296, January.
    18. Ivanic, Maros & Martin, Will & Zaman, Hassan, 2012. "Estimating the Short-Run Poverty Impacts of the 2010–11 Surge in Food Prices," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(11), pages 2302-2317.
    19. Martin, Will, 2021. "Tools for measuring the full impacts of agricultural interventions," IFPRI-MCC technical papers 2, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    20. Michel Beine & Ilan Noy & Christopher Parsons, 2021. "Climate change, migration and voice," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 167(1), pages 1-27, July.
    21. Ron Boschma & Simona Iammarino & Raffaele Paci & Jordy Suriñach & Raul Ramos & Jordi Suriñach, 2017. "A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU," Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, Royal Dutch Geographical Society KNAG, vol. 108(1), pages 21-35, February.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:11:y:2011:i:4:n:2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyterbrill.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.