The Assessment Of Forecast Intervals Uncertainty For Oil Prices
The main objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of daily forecast intervals for highs and lows of WTI crude oil spot prices. For constructing the prediction intervals on the horizon 24th of February 2014-25th of March 2014, different quantitative methods were used, the historical errors method providing the best results. All the tests (independence test, the unconditional coverage and the combined test) conduct us to the same result: only for the forecast intervals based on historical error method there are not significant differences based on ex-ante and ex-post probability.
Volume (Year): 9 (2014)
Issue (Month): 2 (August)
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Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013.
"Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data,"
American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics,
American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
- Steffen Elstner & Eric Sims & Ruediger Bachmann, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," 2010 Meeting Papers 614, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Eric R. Sims, 2012. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," Working Papers 014, University of Notre Dame, Department of Economics, revised Jun 2012.
- Ruediger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2010. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," NBER Working Papers 16143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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