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The Assessment Of Forecast Intervals Uncertainty For Oil Prices

Author

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  • SIMIONESCU Mihaela

    (Institute for Economic Forecasting, The Romanian Academy, Romania)

Abstract

The main objective of this study is to assess the uncertainty of daily forecast intervals for highs and lows of WTI crude oil spot prices. For constructing the prediction intervals on the horizon 24th of February 2014-25th of March 2014, different quantitative methods were used, the historical errors method providing the best results. All the tests (independence test, the unconditional coverage and the combined test) conduct us to the same result: only for the forecast intervals based on historical error method there are not significant differences based on ex-ante and ex-post probability.

Suggested Citation

  • SIMIONESCU Mihaela, 2014. "The Assessment Of Forecast Intervals Uncertainty For Oil Prices," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 9(2), pages 78-86, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:blg:journl:v:9:y:2014:i:2:p:78-86
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
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