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Policy Determinants of School Outcomes under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Fabrice Murtin
  • Thomas Laurent
  • Geoff Barnard
  • Dean Janse van Rensburg
  • Vijay Reddy
  • George Frempong
  • Lolita Winnaar

Abstract

In this paper, we assess the determinants of secondary school outcomes in South Africa. We use Bayesian model averaging techniques to account for uncertainty in the set of underlying factors that are chosen among a very large pool of explanatory variables in order to identify the subset of explanatory variables most strongly associated with the dependent variable. Our analysis indicates that the socio-economic background of pupils, demographic characteristics such as population groups (Black and White), as well as geographical locations account for a significant variation in pupils’ achievement levels. We also find that the most robust policy determinants of pupils’ test scores are the availability of a library at school, the use of IT in the classroom as well as school climate.

Suggested Citation

  • Fabrice Murtin & Thomas Laurent & Geoff Barnard & Dean Janse van Rensburg & Vijay Reddy & George Frempong & Lolita Winnaar, 2015. "Policy Determinants of School Outcomes under Model Uncertainty: Evidence from South Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(3), pages 317-334, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:sajeco:v:83:y:2015:i:3:p:317-334
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/saje.12091
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C2 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods
    • I2 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education
    • O2 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy

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