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Extrapolation Of Purchasing Power Parities Using Multiple Benchmarks And Auxiliary Information: A New Approach

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  • D. S. Prasada Rao
  • Alicia Rambaldi
  • Howard Doran

Abstract

The paper presents an econometric framework for the construction of a consistent panel of purchasing power parities (PPPs) which makes it possible to combine all the PPP benchmark data from various phases of the International Comparison Program with the data on national price movements in the form of implicit deflators from national accounts. The method improves upon the current practice used in the construction of the Penn World Tables (PWT), and similar tables produced by the World Bank which tend to be anchored on a selected benchmark. The econometric formulation is based on a regression model for the national price levels where the disturbances are assumed to be heteroskedastic and spatially correlated across countries. The regression model along with data on country specific price movements are combined using a state–space formulation and optimum predictions of PPPs are obtained. As a property of the method presented in the paper, we show that the resulting PPP predictions are weighted averages of extrapolations of PPPs from different benchmarks—thus the method provides a formal approach which has a simple intuitive interpretation. The smoothed PPP predictions (and standard errors) obtained through the state–space are produced for both ICP‐participating and non‐participating countries and non‐benchmark years. A complete tableau of PPPs for 141 countries spanning the period 1970 to 2005 is compiled using the method. Results for some selected countries are presented and the new series are compared and contrasted with the currently available PWT series. Extrapolated series for the remaining countries are available from the authors upon request.

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  • D. S. Prasada Rao & Alicia Rambaldi & Howard Doran, 2010. "Extrapolation Of Purchasing Power Parities Using Multiple Benchmarks And Auxiliary Information: A New Approach," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 59-98, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:revinw:v:56:y:2010:i:s1:p:s59-s98
    DOI: 10.1111/j.1475-4991.2010.00386.x
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    3. Amita Majumder & Ranjan Ray & Kompal Sinha, 2014. "A Unified Framework for the Estimation of Intra and Inter Country Food Purchasing Power Parities with Application to Cross Country Comparisons of Food Expenditure: India, Indonesia and Vietnam," Monash Economics Working Papers 31-14, Monash University, Department of Economics.
    4. Long Hai Vo, 2023. "Understanding International Price and Consumption Disparities," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 69(2), pages 443-473, June.
    5. Hosseiny, Ali, 2017. "A geometrical imaging of the real gap between economies of China and the United States," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 479(C), pages 151-161.
    6. Ali Hosseiny, 2015. "Violation of Invariance of Measurement for GDP Growth Rate and its Consequences," Papers 1507.04848, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
    7. Menggen Chen & Yan Wang & D. S. Prasada Rao, 2020. "Measuring the spatial price differences in China with regional price parity methods," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(4), pages 1103-1146, April.
    8. Oulton, Nicholas, 2015. "Space-time (In)consistency in the national accounts: causes and cures," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 86285, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Manisha Chakrabarty & Amita Majumder & Ranjan Ray, 2018. "A Framework for the Simultaneous Measurement of Spatial Variation and Temporal Movement in Prices in a Heterogeneous Country: The Dynamic Household Regional Product Dummy Model," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 64(3), pages 703-730, September.
    10. Robert Hill & Daniel Melser, 2015. "Benchmark averaging and the measurement of changes in international income inequality," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 151(4), pages 767-801, November.
    11. Daniel Gallardo‐Albarrán & Robert Inklaar, 2021. "The Role Of Capital And Productivity In Accounting For Income Differences Since 1913," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(3), pages 952-974, July.
    12. Robert J. Hill & Alice O. Nakamura, 2010. "Improving Inflation And Related Performance Measures For Nations: An Introduction," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 56(s1), pages 1-10, June.
    13. Hai Long Vo & Duc Hong Vo, 2023. "The purchasing power parity and exchange‐rate economics half a century on," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(2), pages 446-479, April.
    14. Moatsos, Michail & Lazopoulos, Achillefs, 2021. "Global poverty: A first estimation of its uncertainty," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    15. Moatsos, Michail & Lazopoulos, Achillefs, 2021. "Purchasing power parities and the Dollar-A-Day approach: An unstable relationship," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    16. Ludwig von Auer & Alena Shumskikh, 2024. "Retrospective Computations of Price Index Numbers: Theory and Application," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 70(1), pages 60-79, March.
    17. Robert Inklaar, 2013. "“Price Levels and Economic Growth: Making Sense of Revisions to Data on Real Incomes”: A Comment," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 59(4), pages 614-622, December.
    18. W. Erwin Diewert & Kevin J. Fox, 2015. "Output Growth and Inflation across Space and Time," Discussion Papers 2015-04, School of Economics, The University of New South Wales.
    19. Ranjan Ray & Parvin Singh, 2019. "Income Inequality in an Era of Globalisation: The Perils of Taking a Global View," Monash Economics Working Papers 08-19, Monash University, Department of Economics.

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